Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

One of the biggest daily green candles of the entire year, and with higher volume than a lot of other big daily green candles.

1. Jan. 7th: +13.24 on 7.5M shares.
2. Feb. 27th: +12.96 on 11.1M shares.
3. Today: +12.50 on 13.7M shares.
4. May 3rd: +11.17 on 23.7M shares.

We didn't do so well in the days/weeks after the other green candles. So what are you trying to say?

 

[dha]

To get to 90k cars (lower end of the guidance), NA would need to deliver 57k cars. Q2 so far is 28k, so they would need to do 29k in June. Impossible? No. Probable? Not sure.

You're forgetting Canada.

28K figure so far in Q2 is U.S. only, not all of NA as you wrote.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Certainly not counting any chickens here by any means, but it sure is nice to see my account green today! YAY! I think it is a gross understatement to say the shareholders meeting on the 11th could be VERY interesting and potentially enlightening.

Dan

 

[mrdoubleb]

You're forgetting Canada.

28K figure so far in Q2 is U.S. only, not all of NA as you wrote.

Not forgetting Canada, but, with all due respect, it may not be that significant. Ev-sales.blogspot.com shows 10k EV sales in Q1 altogether. Electrek had an article claiming 1594 Model 3s in Canada in Q1. Sure it may have gone up. But gone up to 12-13k Tesla sales?

 

[wipster]

Probably shouldn't continue this as its so off topic, but....

You are theoretically correct, but practically there are problems with norming and IQ tests. I have read that they suffer from limited sample sizes at the high end, ceiling effects where they cannot capture the high end, and fat tails/right skew/bump (to a very minor degree because of these limitations). There are some extended IQ tests which try to measure IQ up to 200 or so, compared to normal tests which only go up to 160 or so, but obviously it's very hard to get many people this high up to calibrate a test. Tests are also only correlated by about 0.6 - 0.8, between themselves, so I think you have to understand a whole bunch of limitations exist in trying to compress human intelligence into a nice neat normal distribution, and you might end up with a little bump at the end of your pretty normal distribution, when you start apply an IQ test in the real world.

I'm sure glad our POTUS has an IQ of 240... Not.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not forgetting Canada, but, with all due respect, it may not be that significant. Ev-sales.blogspot.com shows 10k EV sales in Q1 altogether. Electrek had an article claiming 1594 Model 3s in Canada in Q1. Sure it may have gone up. But gone up to 12-13k Tesla sales?

Vancouver delivery centres are delivering 60 to 90 cars a day right now 7 days a week. Quebec probably the same.

 

[dha]

Not forgetting Canada, but, with all due respect, it may not be that significant. Ev-sales.blogspot.com shows 10k EV sales in Q1 altogether. Electrek had an article claiming 1594 Model 3s in Canada in Q1. Sure it may have gone up. But gone up to 12-13k Tesla sales?

Model 3 only became eligible for the $5,000 CAD federal rebate one month ago. There have been anecdotal reports of the Vancouver store taking ~800 orders in a week. So yes Canada is a bit of a wildcard in Q2.

 

[Maitri982]

Interesting, Rivian backed out of a deal with GM, supposedly because GM wanted to limit Rivian’s releases under their own brand name. And they went wit the Ford deal because they didn’t try to get similar restrictions.

So I agree the partnership is a mixed bag and it still seems a bit puzzling, because for Ford to use this to really accelerate F-150 electrification, wouldn’t they have to use the Rivian skateboard as-is? That would mean that Rivian brand and F-150e would have many common components, more like F-150e would be Rivian with a different body style. Which makes you wonder how will they differentiate? I assume they will use different wheelbases to allow the look and functionality to diverge.

Tesla will crush them...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Model 3 only became eligible for the $5,000 CAD federal rebate one month ago. There have been anecdotal reports of the Vancouver store taking ~800 orders in a week. So yes Canada is a bit of a wildcard in Q2.

Exactly! Getting our second Model 3 on Saturday. When the federal government announced the $5K rebate on top of the $8K provincial rebate it was a no brainer. A lot of people were just waiting for the announcement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

http://bit.ly/TeslaCarriers

 

[Carl Raymond]

I heard rumors that Elon maybe announcing some amazing progress in Shanghai during the investor meeting and that he has been holding daily meetings with the crew in charge of building the machinery. Has anyone else heard this?

Rumour or fact, it would be a well educated guess (the goings on, not the announcement of) that most have already factored in. Nobody is going to build a factory like that in record time and then pause to consider “hmmm, what shall we put in this factory?”

 

[sparcs]

Rumour or fact, it would be a well educated guess (the goings on, not the announcement of) that most have already factored in. Nobody is going to build a factory like that in record time and then pause to consider “hmmm, what will we put in this factory?”

We can visibly see the progress. Can't imagine that Elon can announce more that what we can see with our eyes.

They're moving fast, but the outer shell isn't quite finished yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There have been a few reports on the S side of the forums of people whose MCU broke and was replaced with MCU2. So far as I know, that’s currently the only way to “upgrade”, and even then it’s random whether you get it or are just switched out with a refurbished MCU1(presumably depending on what they have on hand).

That said, I waited more than 2 years for the Bioweapon Defense Mode upgrade for the S, eventually convinced it wouldn’t happen, and then it was suddenly there one day. Hard to predict these things with this company.

Yeah, the MCU upgrade is coming:

MCU Retrofit Confirmed | Tesla

 

[HG Wells]

I guess it's pretty natural to compare others to oneself rather than the average person. I can imagine that sometimes it must be pretty depressing to have an exceptionally high IQ and to be [seemingly] surrounded by imbeciles.

Yes, it is very depressing.

 

[Thekiwi]

Looks like Elon landed in London. RHD deliveries secured?

Pure speculation on my part:

As much as I hate to say it, Musk has a lot of reasons to meet with Trump (who is currently in London). SpaceX related (Space Force, Air Force/nasa contracts, Trump’s moon landing desire), as well as Tesla (tariff impact, letting him know Chanos is a big Biden fundraiser).

 

[Cherry Wine]

We didn't do so well in the days/weeks after the other green candles. So what are you trying to say?

Lol. There is no inference to be had -- merely an observation.

 

[Hock1]

Pure speculation on my part:

As much as I hate to say it, Musk has a lot of reasons to meet with Trump (who is currently in London). SpaceX related (Space Force, Air Force/nasa contracts, Trump’s moon landing desire), as well as Tesla (tariff impact, letting him know Chanos is a big Biden fundraiser).

It must be a real quandary for the Trump-haters on this blog to reconcile their potential Trump-replacement to be fraternizing with Chanos. I am not a political person. Just an honest observation.

 

[Krugerrand]

I honestly think it’s as simple as the prominence of the lines on each side. So where the left line is dashed and a dashed white line also exists on the right during the merge section, the car remains straight. However if the white line on the right vanishes and only the merging lane’s line is visible to the car, it veers right.

I drove from NYC to Tucson AZ last year, so covered about half a dozen states and highways, and while it din’t always happen (agreed) it did usually happen for long swathes of highway where the merging lanes lacked these dashes.

If you find something different, let me know.

I thought that originally too, but I’ve had it maintain proper position without a line on the right.

I believe it’s a combination of length of merge and the actually layout. Some merges seem to come out of nowhere, while others are incorporated more naturally. If it can determine the outer ‘border’ of the merge lane and shows it on the screen, then it’s been a 50/50 shot it’ll stay left.

I’ve also had no issue where two lanes merge into one lane in the middle of a multi-lane highway. It’s handled those perfectly thus far.

 

[Ratanpara]

The Couple Who Feds Say Scammed Berkshire Hathaway for Millions
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Not Tesla related but fascinating read.

 

[Carl Raymond]

We can visibly see the progress. Can't imagine that Elon can announce more that what we can see with our eyes.

They're moving fast, but the outer shell isn't quite finished yet.

It appears that GF3 currently offers better protection from the elements than a tent. Thus GA should be ready in approx 2 weeks.

But seriously, Musk has been handed a gift of time. If suppliers can deliver everything required to get this factory going, I can’t see him squandering that. China saw that the world was watching and produced a miracle. Now it’s Tesla’s turn to put jaws on the floor.