Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

I'm 100% in agreement. However, isn't there a lift on Short trading TSLA tomorrow? I'm trying to decide if I should buy more today or tomorrow? Almost out of powder...

Post-uptick rule downward pressure did not materialize last time after the rule was triggered post-P&D numbers release. (I and some others got slightly burned selling covered calls in expectation of said downward pressure.) Will history repeat itself? Who knows. I suppose macros could carry the stock price lower between here and ER. It was buoyed by quite a rally in early-to-mid January.

 

[KarenRei]

(In case it matters, I realized I misspoke. They're $350s that expire *three* weeks after ER that I was planning to convert to *$340s* thst expire two weeks after ER. But waiting for either higher SPs or more time to lapse first.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

are gas pumps indoors nowadays? been a while since i've been to one, admittedly...

We did our quarterly fillup on the ICE vehicles last night. Thats how much we don't drive them anymore. Frys groceries here gives discounts on Fuel... .50 cents off Reg accumulated, so it was about $2 a gal. Hidden saving if anyones counting... what remaining gas we do buy is also cheaper now.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just a heads up to watch IV closely going into ER for anyone looking to buy short-dated options pre-ER. 2/15 exp options are now up to ~75% IV. I think they were at about 65% before market open today. It's going to take some pretty good upward movement of the underlying to counteract the IV crush.

Implied volatility is truly insane currently for all the short term options: the "1 dollar contract" (100x leverage) is at $325 this Friday (Jan 25), at $380 next Friday (Feb 1) and $425 the week after that (Feb 8).

(It's party market makers being conservative through the ER though - if you are buying calls you can probably get a better deal and a price improvement by putting a limit order into the spread.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

(In case it matters, I realized I misspoke. They're $350s that expire *three* weeks after ER that I was planning to convert to *$340s* thst expire two weeks after ER. But waiting for either higher SPs or more time to lapse first.)

And then there's that mistake bet we all made at one time or another... not for me but good luck Karen.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I didn't say "lottery tickets"

For me, the highest strike I plan to have going into (2 weeks after) the ER is $350 (that's "high risk" for me, and I don't have a lot of money on them). My mid-risk are $300s in March, and my low-risk are $250s in August. With plans to roll. Also retaining some plain stock.

Yes, leverage amplifies the downs as well as the ups. But if you're a bull, you believe the long-term trend is up, so why not amplify that long-term trend?

I was less aggressive than you with my option plays in the past, and yet I got burned pretty badly. Being here for few years, I've seen people lose everything, or a lot. Warnings usually don't work. Early on, I even warned TrendTrader007, who is a bit of a legend around here. He did really, really well in the beginning, continued pressing bets and got hurt quite badly couple of times*.

Anyhow, while I don't think it will be useful, my conscience requires me to point that this is very aggressive play, and you're amplifying short term trends; and while you can make out like a bandit, it could be very bad too. Elon doesn't care about short-term holders, and this is what your portfolio emphasizes. He really doesn't. Cost to roll will be very high, if SP is low at any date, but especially towards expiration date.
Signing out, and I'll never repeat this again (to you).

*I did see some people catch and control risk quite well and while at times unpleasant, ride waves apparently quite well, like @bdy0627, but that seems to be an exception, rather than the rule.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Since someone mentioned keeping an eye on the recommendations from American Bulls recently I've kept tabs on them as well. They currently recommend a "sell", but it's worth noting that they have not been having a good run with their TSLA recommendations of late. They recommended a short position on 1/3 at a SP of $305 (miss), a buy on 1/7 at $323 (hit), a sell on 1/14 at $334 (miss), and a buy on 1/16 at $346 (yikes).

 

[shlokavica22]

I was less aggressive than you with my option plays in the past, and yet I got burned pretty badly. Being here for few years, I've seen people lose everything, or a lot. Warnings usually don't work. Early on, I even warned TrendTrader007, who is a bit of a legend around here. He did really, really well in the beginning, continued pressing bets and got hurt quite badly couple of times*.

Anyhow, while I don't think it will be useful, my conscience requires me to point that this is very aggressive play, and you're amplifying short term trends; and while you can make out like a bandit, it could be very bad too. Elon doesn't care about short-term holders, and this is what your portfolio emphasizes. He really doesn't. Cost to roll will be very high, if SP is low at any date, but especially towards expiration date.
Signing out, and I'll never repeat this again (to you).

*I did see some people catch and control risk quite well and while at times unpleasant, ride waves apparently quite well, like @bdy0627, but that seems to be an exception, rather than the rule.

That's a good warning, but at the same time it's important not to be too scared about that.
Realizing the risks, sizing the bets and knowing that it's speculation, can go a long way.

 

[Hock1]

I was less aggressive than you with my option plays in the past, and yet I got burned pretty badly. Being here for few years, I've seen people lose everything, or a lot. Warnings usually don't work. Early on, I even warned TrendTrader007, who is a bit of a legend around here. He did really, really well in the beginning, continued pressing bets and got hurt quite badly couple of times*.

Anyhow, while I don't think it will be useful, my conscience requires me to point that this is very aggressive play, and you're amplifying short term trends; and while you can make out like a bandit, it could be very bad too. Elon doesn't care about short-termer holders, and this is what your portfolio emphasizes. He really doesn't. Cost to roll will be very high, if SP is low at any date, but especially towards expiration date.
Signing out, and I'll never repeat this again (to you).

*I did see some people catch and control risk quite well and while at times unpleasant, ride waves apparently quite well, like @bdy0627, but that seems to be an exception, rather than the rule.

I, too, have warned every "bettor" here that it is a losing game. Having been a broker and watched many, who eschewed my advice to invest for the long term, lose in the options and stock trading game. Sure, some have had some pretty good streaks, but eventually they lose overall. It is no different than the casino. Unfortunately, most people have to learn on their own. What really worries me is that some of the "bets" that I've heard traders talking about here could, under (albeit) unusual circumstances, not only wipe them out but potentially put themselves in a position where they will owe (maybe big time). What is ironic and tragic at the same time is that these gamblers have identified one of the greatest, if not the greatest investment stories of all time. And, they choose to squander the opportunity to build substantial wealth by actually investing in the Company. AIMO.

 

[anthonyj]

US cancels trade planning meeting with China, source says

 

[CorneliusXX]

#Tesla registered 13,974 new #Model3 VINs. ~38% estimated to be dual motor. ~34% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 265119.

They're switching to US orders

 

[Fact Checking]

US cancels trade planning meeting with China, source says

Explains the lousy macro and the -2% NASDAQ.

 

[Menifeer]

I picked up another January 2020 LEAP this morning. $330 strike. Not going to try and play earnings with short term calls.

I added to my collection of Jan 2020 $300s @ $64.50. Will be writing Calls against the position when the share price recovers.

 

[Causalien]

You can convert stock to calls to gain more leverage. That's what I'm doing.

Oh oh.

Famous last words before ppl flame out. Never convert stock to calls to play ER.

At current volatility levels. You are looking at around 20% premium crush after ER.

Besides, it is the worst strategy tax wise.

 

[Bobfitz1]

10% price increase per annum is big but reasonable. 33% should have been spread over 3 years.

Tesla has said for years that Supercharging Network is not a revenue generator. Why not make pricing fully transparent?
Track cost to build and maintain each location and show how price charged depends on Tesla costs plus local KWh rate.
That ought to be more palatable to SC users than arbitrary increases followed by rollbacks.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla has said for years that Supercharging Network is not a revenue generator. Why not make pricing fully transparent?
Track cost to build and maintain each location and show how price charged depends on Tesla costs plus local KWh rate.
That ought to be more palatable to SC users than arbitrary increases followed by rollbacks.

They are running a business, not a charity comes to mind.

 

[Big Earl]

Are you using your Tesla for business, or how are you on the road so much? As others said, definitely an outlier. If it is for pleasure, it sounds like you may be really enjoying retirement, which is my plan in a few years. I do want the Supercharging system to be self-sustaining though, so they need to price it that way, and also to discourage any local parasites from opportunity charging and clogging the chargers.

We have family in Michigan and friends all over North America. Family includes new babies, ailing grandparents and everything in between, so we've been trying to make regular visits.

We've always enjoyed traveling by car and we've been making up for lost time after we stopped driving our diesels post-Dieselgate while we were waiting for the Model 3. More trips planned, as the other half of our family is in Washington State. Not retired yet ... about 20 or 30 years to go before we can think about that (unless TSLA goes to the moon).

To further clarify, I'm not faulting Tesla for raising the prices or for offering free supercharging with referrals, although the juxtaposition of the two is interesting. As a shareholder, I trust Tesla to make the right decisions to continue growing, even when those decisions result in more cost to me as an owner.

 

[Fact Checking]

What I don't understand is Elon saying that even with great efforts he thinks Q1 profit will be tiny. I thought only AWD and P are being offered initially in Europe and China. We know Tesla is on track this quarter to deliver thousands of high margin cars to Europe and China. That should be a positive for Q1 earnings. Why is Elon warning they will be tiny?

I believe to understand that reference, consider the motivational email Elon wrote just two days before the end of Q3, in which he said Q3 were not certain:

“We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but, to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow (Sunday),” Musk wrote in the email to staff.
​

Turns out in Q3 they made 1.4 billion in cash, $800m FCF, $500m+ non-GAAP and $300m+ in GAAP profits.

Had they taken the Sunday off they'd still have been comfortably profitable. It wasn't even close.

But that's how you motivate without exaggerating: you conservatively and modestly downplay the probability of success - especially if it's so far out as end of Q1 (still 2+ months to go), and especially considering that in the same email he announced 7% layoffs.

There's also a lot of factors outside Tesla's control: trade wars, recessions, a storm sinking a ship, etc. Promising Q1 profitability and then not delivering would be far worse.

So while low Q1 profits or even losses are a possibility, I wouldn't read too much into this email alone - at least without having seen the Q4 results first.

 

[Buckminster]

View attachment 370805
Model 3 VINs

Absolutely beautiful. Sums up at great Q3, why Elon is bit low about Q4. Q1 - does tiny mean something else in South Africa?

What I don't understand is Elon saying that even with great efforts he thinks Q1 profit will be tiny. I thought only AWD and P are being offered initially in Europe and China. We know Tesla is on track this quarter to deliver thousands of high margin cars to Europe and China. That should be a positive for Q1 earnings. Why is Elon warning they will be tiny?

Yup, Elon must be saying tiny profit in Q1 due to firing folk. He can get away with it because it will all be forgotten in 3 months and he can say it was a nice surprise.

I may well have to assume Q2 will be the breakout ER but am very hopeful based on this that we remain on track for May.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I have a different take on the SC price change. Tesla claimed that after the price hike it would still be cheaper than gas, when shown that wasn't the case they adjusted. What's the problem? Seems like the right correction tho make.

Maybe this division within Tesla needs a neural net to handle simple calculations of EV vs ICE fuel cost comparisons?
Or maybe ask a coworker to check your math?