Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 13,974 new #Model3 VINs. ~38% estimated to be dual motor. ~34% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 265119.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[MartinAustin]

I hope someone will post a new list of analyst targets before the Q4 ER. So we can see if people lowered them as should be expected, given that the market's expectations are way down.

...including Morgan Stanley, whose price targets have had their heart set on new capital raises for a while. It's clear Tesla is going without those for now. Would be great to see AJ get out the calculator and update.

 

[Uptownman]

No, it is not irrelevant but your vehicle usage is not statistically typical. That's the thing about statistics, they are of absolutely no use if they don't pertain to you. There will always be people like yourself that need the Supercharger network to justify their ownership of the car. Sure glad they HAVE such a network!

Dan

Some statistics regarding homes that don't have garages. How many of these folks do you think are going to be charging at home? Here is one of those "first principles" that should have been used in determining the size of the addressable market I think. Any idea how many people won't buy a BEV because of lack of garage?
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-in-the-US-have-a-garage

 

[JRP3]

I keep seeing numbers like 99% of charging is done at home. I'm just one data point, but 75% of my charging is done at Superchargers because 75% of my Tesla driving is long road trips away from home. Supercharger pricing is not irrelevant.

You're an outlier. In the grand scheme SC pricing is irrelevant.

 

[KarenRei]

#Tesla registered 13,974 new #Model3 VINs. ~38% estimated to be dual motor. ~34% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 265119.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

A pretty sizeable number, but no budge in the stock.

Is nobody else noticing that Tesla's "early-quarter spike" in VIN registrations is already 15% larger first three weeks of Q1 than the last quarter's spike was over an entire month (aka, we still have plenty more time for the registrations to keep piling up if Tesla follows the same quarterly registration pattern that it usually practices, of a ~1 month upslope followed by a relative plateau)?

 

[JRP3]

Some statistics regarding homes that don't have garages. How many of these folks do you think are going to be charging at home? Here is one of those "first principles" that should have been used in determining the size of the addressable market I think. Any idea how many people won't buy a BEV because of lack of garage?
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-in-the-US-have-a-garage

I had an EV before I had a garage. You don't need a garage to charge, only an outlet.

 

[gora321]

Model 3 VINs

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is why I think Tesla needs to start doing more traditional advertising to get their own message out. Stop relying on bloggers who have their own agenda like Fred.

Ya, that would be great bear news... stock would tank on "Tesla resorts to advertising - Can't sell them anymore" Even though it's the norm to advertise. That's just how amazing the car is.

True story, my buddy just bought 100 shares of stock this AM after riding in a Model S for the first time. Now THAT's buying the company not the stock!

Chin up folks, can't wait for earnings!

 

[Garlands]

A pretty sizeable number, but no budge in the stock.

looks like Q1 registrations have surpassed Q4. 75163 vs 73686

 

[SOULPEDL]

Model 3 VINs

Sweet! Q1 back to great profits (maybe including the 2 week shipping gap). All caught up

 

[reddit_tl]

View attachment 370805
Model 3 VINs

international = higher mix of high ASPs.

Good.

 

[Unpilot]

I know I swore off buying more stock ....but man I wish I had some dry powder!

 

[ReflexFunds]

View attachment 370805
Model 3 VINs

January VINs already 16% up on October and 9 days left of the month. There were however many unused 2018 VINs from 9M18 available for production in 4Q18 and I don't think unused 2018 VINs have been transferred across to 2019.

 

[reddit_tl]

Ya, that would be great bear news... stock would tank on "Tesla resorts to advertising - Can't sell them anymore" Even though it's the norm to advertise. That's just how amazing the car is.

True story, my buddy just bought 100 shares of stock this AM after riding in a Model S for the first time. Now THAT's buying the company not the stock!

Chin up folks, can't wait for earnings!

Tesla will do ads someday for sure. In a big way, too.

Not now. They don't have the money to do those big ass costly ads.

 

[gringotuanis]

#Tesla registered 13,974 new #Model3 VINs. ~38% estimated to be dual motor. ~34% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 265119.

By my math on the M3 vin's Twitter this means about 70k vin registrations since the year started.

 

[KarenRei]

looks like Q1 registrations have surpassed Q4. 75163 vs 73686

In just three weeks. The "early-quarter spike" usually goes on for about a month before plateauing.

We had good indications in mid-December that Tesla's production was getting uncorked. This to me strongly reinforces that. I look forward to hearing discussion of production in the quarterly letter and/or the call

 

[gora321]

A pretty sizeable number, but no budge in the stock.

Is nobody else noticing that Tesla's "early-quarter spike" in VIN registrations is already 15% larger first three weeks of Q1 than the last quarter's spike was over an entire month (aka, we still have plenty more time for the registrations to keep piling up if Tesla follows the same quarterly registration pattern that it usually practices, of a ~1 month upslope followed by a relative plateau)?

Patience. Longs might be slow but we are coming. .)

 

[KarenRei]

I know I swore off buying more stock ....but man I wish I had some dry powder!

You can convert stock to calls to gain more leverage. That's what I'm doing.

 

[RobStark]

And the Camry (above) needs to visit the shop every 5000 to 10,000 miles for "maintenance". I've owned Teslas for six years and never did "maintenance", never took it to a shop except when I was hit while parked. That's quite a savings in time and money right there.

You can change oil and filters every 10k miles with synthetic motor oil at home.

My 2003 Honda Accord never visited a maintenance shop til 100k miles to change the serpentine belt,spark plugs and brake pads.Some home mechanics can do that but I was not willing to try.

OTOH Tesla says you should take your Gen II vehicle in for service once per year at a cost of $450-$900 depending on what it needs that year.

What are they saying for Model 3?

 

[Zaxxon]

OTOH Tesla says you should take your Gen II vehicle in for service once per year at a cost of $450-$900 depending on what it needs that year.

What are they saying for Model 3?

Tire rotations at every 6,250 miles. Other than that, service every 2 years / 25k miles--first for brake fluid, then at 4/50k battery coolant, as well. I don't think they've released pricing on the site for those services. Model 3 manual.