Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Thanks, I did totally miss all that drama from 2013 (NYT piece by John Broder about trip in Model S).

Here’s the apology piece by NYT, Elon replied by tweet that it restored his faith in the NYT:
Problems With Precision and Judgment, but Not Integrity, in Tesla Test
Excerpt: “I am convinced that he took on the test drive in good faith, and told the story as he experienced it. Did he use good judgment along the way? Not especially.”

Here’s a piece by the Atlantic pulling apart the log data that Elon published:
Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery
Interesting stuff, scroll down to “Argument #4”. They don’t find the data convincing that Broder drove around the supercharger parking lot to run the battery to zero, and I tend to agree with them. I also agree with the NYT retraction/apology.

BUT, here is IMHO the best and fairly recent piece about the whole long sad story of negative Tesla press:
From Broder To The 2018 Tesla Short Seller Storm To Today — What A Long, Strange Trip It's Been | CleanTechnica

———Punchline relevant here, from Zack Shahan’s CleanTechnica article—-
So, what ever happened to John Broder? I don’t recall seeing his coverage of Tesla after that. Well, after what I presume was good coverage of other topics, he eventually became an editor at the New York Times. “John M. Broder joined the editorial board at the start of 2018,” his profile there notes.

Interestingly, the New York Times has never come around and gotten positive about Tesla from what I’ve seen. In fact, reporters there covering Tesla are openly, blatantly, and I have to say often conspiratorially sliming Elon Musk on Twitter. One of our writers last summer called an article about a call with Elon Musk “the billion-dollar hit piece.” You could call it Broder × 10.
————————

Broder is now the ring leader of anything related to Tesla at the NYT. For this reason I no longer give them my clicks.

 

[sundaymorning]

Well, people can go on the news and say Tesla is going bankrupt all they want. They can also say Teslas have horrible quality issues and that Elon is a liar. Or that many Teslas have combusted, etc etc etc

Not much SEC can do about that.

The SEC doesn’t do a lot of things, especially before during and after the Great Recession, notice how all their Wall Street cronies made out like bandits? Did any of them get prison time or were bankers even wealthier than before?

As noted by others 420 is free speech then.

 

[StealthP3D]

Reviewing my past Toyota and Tesla car purchases, it seems like I have one rule: the brand needs to start with a ‘T’ and end with an ‘A’.

After buying two Tesla, it seems like I have two rules:

1) It needs to start with a "T" and end with an "A"
2) It can't be a Toyota.

 

[KSilver2000]

McLaren 720 S appears to be 350k.

Wth??

Dude, I said some are same price. Specifically, the 570’s, 600 and GT, which are between $190K and $250K. And that 720s price you’re mentioning, that must be for a higher trim with options (or in another non-USD currency) because they start at $285K.

Basic Google search?

I can't imagine paying that much for a car that needs a gas engine.

350...without the k... maybe.

 

[TradingInvest]

Ihor reported TSLA shares shorted as 39m yesterday but today had to revise to close to 46m... based on yesterday's short figures released. That's a 7m error. I'm not sure if we can really trust his TSLA shares short figures anymore. 7 million share error is really big and for him to claim he's an expert using "algos" to calculate this, I'm not so sure.

I think Ihor is just guessing, I probably can guess better.

 

[JusRelax]

The ignorance is shocking. But I've known for a long time the talking heads on CNBC often don't know much at all about their subject matter. They know just enough to blab.

Here's the good news: This is the quarter when it will become apparent that the surge in Tesla deliveries was not a one-off event caused by pent up demand but that the cars are so nice and make so much practical sense that the demand will continue to grow. This will blow apart the biggest short thesis that not many people really want a Tesla. And this is before the Model Y, which will be much more of a mass-market car, is even available.

The comparison sales charts and graphs will shock the talking heads on CNBC.

Sorry, I can't say I agree. Analysts are already stating that demand will drop off after this quarter due to drop in federal tax credit. Unfortunately, I don't think the bear thesis regarding demand will disappear until earliest sometime next year.

Regardless, I believe that Tesla is on the right track. Time to put the blinders on, put your head down, and focus on making as many of these demand-less vehicles as possible.

 

[DaveT]

I think Ihor is just guessing, I probably can guess better.

You would just need to be less than 7 millions shares off to guess better than him.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ihor reported TSLA shares shorted as 39m yesterday but today had to revise to close to 46m... based on yesterday's short figures released. That's a 7m error. I'm not sure if we can really trust his TSLA shares short figures anymore. 7 million share error is really big and for him to claim he's an expert using "algos" to calculate this, I'm not so sure.

In any case, the high short interest is a good omen. It points to Tesla still being oversold and explains how the price got as low as it did.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think Ihor is just guessing, I probably can guess better.

Ihor's been wrong multiple times when the official numbers come out. In fact, he's usually wrong on a monthly basis....and he's always wrong on the low end. When the official numbers come out, he's always underestimating the number of shares shorted and then he immediately puts out a tweet updating his numbers.

Either he's just clueless or he's purposely downplaying short activity to their benefit. His comments on naked shorting told me all I needed to know about how his perception of wall st shenanigans compares to real life.

 

[wipster]

Please, everyone, advertising will not be useful for Tesla. Publicity will be.

Agree with your conclusions, but I would change the last sentence to "Positive publicity will be."

 

[KSilver2000]

After buying two Tesla, it seems like I have two rules:

1) It needs to start with a "T" and end with an "A"
2) It can't be a Toyota.

Well, that shows a lack of car industry knowledge.
You would buy a Tata but not a Toyota?

 

[dakh]

Ihor reported TSLA shares shorted as 39m yesterday but today had to revise to close to 46m... based on yesterday's short figures released. That's a 7m error. I'm not sure if we can really trust his TSLA shares short figures anymore. 7 million share error is really big and for him to claim he's an expert using "algos" to calculate this, I'm not so sure.

This might also mean that TSLA short interest doesn't behave like the rest of the market so the "algorithms" simply don't work right or don't take something into account. Kind of like everyone suspects anyway.

 

[powertoold]

This is great. Does that mean I can go into a crowded theatre and yell "Fire"? Because freedom of speech.

Apples to oranges analogy

The media spins, the shorts spin, they lie in a way that can be arguable. Ignorance (intentional or not) isn't justification for punishment when it comes to freedom of speech.

And yes, you can yell fire if you think there is a fire, and it'd be difficult for anyone to punish you even if there was not a fire.

 

[sparcs]

At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year

surprise... it's written by TSLAQ poster boy Russ Mitchell. Way to go Russ in continuing to prove our point about all the bad journalism surrounding Tesla.

The title of that article should say. "Elon Musk debunks bogus media narrative about robotaxi fleet."

 

[JusRelax]

This might also mean that TSLA short interest doesn't behave like the rest of the market so the "algorithms" simply don't work right or don't take something into account. Kind of like everyone suspects anyway.

An interesting theory.... almost as if the shorting on Tesla is much more sophisticated than normal...

Did somebody say Fairfax??

 

[wipster]

Well, people can go on the news and say Tesla is going bankrupt all they want. They can also say Teslas have horrible quality issues and that Elon is a liar. Or that many Teslas have combusted, etc etc etc

Not much SEC can do about that.

They can if those individuals are knowingly lying to profit from falling stock prices.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sorry, I can't say I agree. Analysts are already stating that demand will drop off after this quarter due to drop in federal tax credit. Unfortunately, I don't think the bear thesis regarding demand will disappear until earliest sometime next year.

The "lack of demand" thesis will never go away completely, even as sales hit fantastic new highs bears will say demand is drying up because demand is relative to previous demand. I do think the lack of demand thesis is losing its luster considering its been proven wrong so many times in a row. You can only call "wolf" so many times.

Regardless, I believe that Tesla is on the right track. Time to put the blinders on, put your head down, and focus on making as many of these demand-less vehicles as possible.

Absolutely! The charts and graphs are going to blow peoples minds.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, that shows a lack of car industry knowledge.
You would buy a Tata but not a Toyota?

Haha! But Tatas are not sold in my market (or yours). I don't count Jags or Land Rover's, they are their own marque.

 

[Ggusev]

I think this is a very interesting way to categorise car buyers. As a former Toyota buyer, I was always a functional car buyer. But buying a Tesla (actually 2 Teslas) made me both a functional and fun car buyer, to the point that I would never buy a car again that is just functional.

Reviewing my past Toyota and Tesla car purchases, it seems like I have one rule: the brand needs to start with a ‘T’ and end with an ‘A’.

so you plan to try Tatra, Tianma, Trekka and Tramontana

 

[dakh]

Just 3 weeks ago there were so much FUD about JB not being in Fremont. So much for that crap.

It would be strange if he was in Fremont. With Maxwell in and a fairly obvious (even I predicted that) push to take battery production in-house he would be either at GF or wherever the R&D facility is that works on this (Germany?). They must be also under a very substantial time pressure since if they can come up with the right tools and process in time to use it in GF3, that would avoid a lot of wasted capital. I was suspecting that the new battery tech will only be in for Model Y but it looks like they think they can do it for China GF. Given their execution so far I wouldn't be surprised if China GF gets bottle-necked by batteries next year.