Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Bought my first shares at 211, wish me luck. Was so bummed I didn't have any spare cash last week at $175 and had to watch the rise until I got paid Friday, :-(

I hope you realise the crazy roller-coaster ride you've just hopped onto...?

 

[SO16]

Basic Google search?

I just did Mclaren. Google came up with 720. Relax

 

[Mike Smith]

HyperChange CEO even more bullish on Tesla following shareholder meeting

 

[DaveT]

I started a series last year about Tesla needing to take back it’s narrative. I wrote this last part last year but never got around to posting it. But here it is.

Part 6: Why Tesla needs to show up and win the media war
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 6: Why Tesla needs to show up and win the media war"


For those who haven’t read the previous parts, here they are:

Part 1: Why the SEC is going after Elon and why he’s losing many of his most ardent fans
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 1: The Turning Tide - Why the SEC is going after Elon and why he’s losing many of his most ardent fans"

Part 2: The SEC’s Bias Against Elon Musk
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 2: The Turning Tide - The SEC's bias against Elon Musk"

Part 3: Why Elon is being judged so harshly for his tweets
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 3: The Turning Tide - Why Elon is being judged so harshly for his tweets"

Part 4: How Tesla can win the negative propaganda war against their company and founder
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 4: The Turning Tide - How Tesla can win the negative propaganda war against their company and founder")

Part 5: The Campaign Tesla Ought to Launch to Take Back Their Narrative
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 5: The Turning Tide - The Campaign Tesla Ought to Launch to Take Back Their Narrative"


Also, I’d love some help if anyone can put together all of these parts into one article and make it all cohesive. PM me if you’re interested in helping.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Like probably many others I read the old post on Musk vs. Short sellers again. What stood out for me: the attacks against Fairfax stopped when the company filed a lawsuit against some of the manipulators. It scared off many others.

I wonder what would happen if Tesla filed one against the most obvious ones (to scare many other shorters and manipulators away). It shouldn’t be too hard to gather evidence against the sloppy ones.

Many say Elon and Tesla should focus on growth or profits to make the FUD go away. I think that’s an illusion. It will not go away. A lawsuit could turn out to be much more effective. Elon exposing Montana Skeptic shows he is not afraid to go head on with shorts.

Yesterday’s shareholder meeting showed how management and shareholders suffer under the constant stream of FUD and how the company is at a loss about how to counter it. One simple lawsuit could be all that is needed to fight back.

 

[Tslynk67]

At 7:35, some guys claims that a Prius buyer does not buy a Model S or X or a 3. Guess what: I’m a Prius buyer who bought both a Model S and a Model 3.

Hah, I stopped watching it at that point! Tesla have clearly stated that a large %age of their buyers have traded up from Prius. CNBC should really stop with the uniformed and/or deliberately misleading idiots.

OK, this price action is baffling to me, that was a really solid shareholder meeting yesterday and it put my mind at rest on a lot of fronts. I'm lending myself €6k to buy ASAP - probably tomorrow as it needs to transfer between banks - and will trade them back after the Q2 delivery report, repay myself and hopefully I can get a handful of free shares.

 

[MP3Mike]

Either he's just clueless or he's purposely downplaying short activity to their benefit.

Or the shorts are good at hiding their activity from the data that he has access to, and he hasn't figured out how to account for that yet...

 

[EVMeister]

Well, the price action today was some boring nonsense.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I hope someone at Tesla IR will ask themselves what did we do wrong to cause a 4% drop after meeting with our shareholders.

 

[StealthP3D]

I hope someone at Tesla IR will ask themselves what did we do wrong to cause a 4% drop after meeting with our shareholders.

Oh, please! Anyone who has been investing longer than their little toe knows that unprofitable growth stocks are volatile. Today's move wasn't a hill of beans compared to the recent rally. There is often no direct correlation to share price movements and events in the real world. Investor sentiment is a complex thing and it's mostly idiots with ties that drive it. Long term, fundamentals rule.

Time to back away from the microscope.

 

[anthonyj]

Ark buys moar Tesla

 

[CyberDutchie]

Oh, please! Anyone who has been investing longer than their little toe knows that unprofitable growth stocks are volatile. Today's move wasn't a hill of beans compared to the recent rally. There is often no direct correlation to share price movements and events in the real world. Investor sentiment is a complex thing and it's mostly idiots with ties that drive it. Long term, fundamentals rule.

Time to back away from the microscope.

Ok, I’m looking forward to that investor sentiment to turn around. Do you think Tesla’s IR department has/should have any influence on that?

 

[StealthP3D]

Ok, I’m looking forward to that investor sentiment to turn around. Do you think Tesla’s IR department has/should have any influence on that?

Yes, IR departments can influence share prices in the short-term but they are not in control of it. Stocks move the way the move in the short-term and the sooner you make peace with that, the happier you will be. Keep your eyes on the horizon.

 

[tander]

Yes, IR departments can influence share prices in the short-term but they are not in control of it. Stocks move the way the move in the short-term and the sooner you make peace with that, the happier you will be. Keep your eyes on the horizon.

The downside to growth investments is always the risk and volatility. Risk and reward. You can't surf a big wave and expect the water to be calm at the same time. Although I guess that's kind of how tsunamis work until they hit the coast, that kind of ruins the metaphor.

 

[capster]

Ok, I’m looking forward to that investor sentiment to turn around. Do you think Tesla’s IR department has/should have any influence on that?

No, that isn’t their job.

Besides, I was at the shareholder meeting and sentiment there was fine. As for the shorts others call investors, I expect their sentiment is, ah, nervous at this point but, yes, I do hope that "turns around" to panic.

 

[Krugerrand]

Name another company that's building electric vehicles at scale and is led by Elon Musk. Take your time.

Hint: this is irrelevant to the question at hand.



A whole bunch more stuff not relevant. Similar to suggesting that just because all prior major automakers have relied on ICE engines, so must Tesla. Fallacy on its face.



And here we again arrive at what I think is the heart of the missed point from those against improved advertising: that it has to impact everyone, or that no one who has swallowed the FUD would be impacted.

Of course advertising won't cure all the FUD. Of course some would continue to be unconvinced, and will remain that way until trusted family/friends are telling them what they're missing.

That's fine. Tesla currently is faced with a massive pit of folks who either do not know WTF Tesla is, or why they're worth looking at, or what their future plans are, etc.

To put some variables to it: Tesla currently has X people who have bought Tesla products, or plan to soon, or at least are well-informed about the company. They have Y people who are totally unaware of the company, and Z people who hate or have major misconceptions about the company.

X is small. Z is small. Y is absolutely massive compared to the sum of X and Z. This is the point that you and others miss. Advertising's goal isn't (at least at this stage) to change all of Z into X. It's to move some portion of Y and a sliver of Z into being X. That's a very low-hanging fruit for a small advertising budget to exhibit a high ROI.

Once Tesla reaches the point where they are known across the world, that's when advertising dollars become a trickier cost-benefit calculation. Today it's not even a calculation--it's simply an obvious missed opportunity.



They need to. I demonstrated this above with the Q1 S/X debacle. That's a given, and would have objectively returned a high ROI had Tesla done a better job addressing it.

Again, do not fall for the spin Tesla puts on demand--as others have pointed out, pure total vehicle volume is not a sufficient metric to judge demand health.

Is demand overall in a solid place? I believe so. Is it where Tesla wants it to be, across all products? Absolutely not. One need only look at all the pricing changes and demand levers pulled in the past few months to see that plainly.



Important to point out that we're all on the same team here. (Well, most of us, anyway.)

I bitch about Tesla's terrible misunderstanding of its marketing/advertising position and how it resulted in the S/X losing some of their impenetrable armor, but I just bought an X. As I knew when placing the order, it's ridiculously awesome.

I love the company's products and I'm grateful that this pricing slide has enabled me to finally own an X. But the rational piece of me knows the company would be better off today if they'd sold 5k more of their most profit-making products in Q1 and were still selling them for thousands of dollars more per unit today.

It's an own-goal, and I don't like it even when I personally benefit from it.

This too shall pass.

And this advertising horse that I've been riding today shall also pass. I'm putting him back in the stable now. Here's hoping the aftermarket jump withstands the day, as yesterday's shareholder meeting was, IMO... How would one particular poster put it?

Bullish AF.

If you think advertising is relevant in terms of effectively changing the minds and perceptions of people who’ve bought into the Tesla is garbage stories, than it most certainly is relevant that advertising is basically one big, fat lie and perceived as such, regardless of Tesla doing ‘honest’ advertising.

Indeed, Tesla should lie like a rug, bash other OEMs mercilessly in adverts, use as much subliminal messaging as possible and basically play dirtier than anyone else if they hope to change the willfully ignorant minds.

Brainwashing is the only sure way because if those people were open to change and new ways of living and actively seeking correct information and capable of critical thinking and common sense, they wouldn’t already have been brainwashed by the media.

It’s also relevant that there’s a decent sized group still banging the EVs can’t work drum regardless of any fallacy.

Otherwise neither one of us has a relevant argument.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you think advertising is relevant in terms of effectively changing the minds and perceptions of people who’ve bought into the Tesla is garbage stories, than it most certainly is relevant that advertising is basically one big, fat lie and perceived as such, regardless of Tesla doing ‘honest’ advertising.

If your web surfing habits are similar to mine, you've been bombarded with advertisements for Revero - The most beautiful electric car you have ever seen:

Every time I see it I wonder what is wrong with them that they need to advertise it - electric cars are constrained by production/battery supply. Shouldn't it sell itself if it's any good? And how come I don't know anyone with one?

 

[Mad@gascar]

At the shareholder meeting, Elon said: "We made as many cars last year as we had in our entire history. And this year, it's going to be pretty similar at least sort of 60% to 80% growth of the total vehicle fleet, maybe more than that."

Let's unpack this: Assuming 530,000 cars delivered up until end of 2018, this means Elon guided for production this year of about 320,000 to 420,000 cars (530,000 x 0.6 to 530,000 x 0.8). This range is quite a bit wider than the official guidance of 360,000 to 400,000. Note that the midpoint of his new guidance is 370,000, within the official range. So 60% would be a miss, 70% would meet official guidance, and 80% would be a beat.

"Maybe more than that" means Elon thinks there is a possibility for 2019 production to exceed 420,000 cars. I suppose this best case scenario assumes they achieve high volume production at G3 during Q4.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The trouble is that investor relations people are designed to deal with investors. short sellers are the antithesis of investors, especially the oil-funded mob of liars that short this stock. No amount of facts or clarification will win over people like mark spiegel and the 'lol teslas catch fire and the gigafactory is photoshopped by subsidy fraud boy lolz' muppets who make up tslaq.

I think Teslas *marketing* department could probably step up a gear and be much more active in terms of generating potentially viral video content on youtube, and doing more to push pop stars and influencers into their cars blah blah... but thats not strictly IR.

 

[Zaxxon]

At 7:35, some guys claims that a Prius buyer does not buy a Model S or X or a 3. Guess what: I’m a Prius buyer who bought both a Model S and a Model 3.

*raises hand* Formerly two Priuses. Now a 3 and an X.

Once you have a Tesla, you realize there are currently only two manufacturers: Tesla, and 'Other.'