Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

My view:

Tesla is currently supply-limited, but only because they dropped prices significantly. Obviously doing so hurt their profitability, their stock price, and my net worth .

Here's what Tesla should do:

1. Lots of people have made pro-quality spec Tesla commercials for free (this is among my favorites. Oh, and this too). Get permission to use these in Youtube ads and for other relatively fiscally efficient advertising sources. I'm almost positive these media producers would give permission.
2. Spur excess demand through these sources.
3. Increase prices as needed to maintain the balance between the new additional demand and supply.
4. Use the additional money to fight the FUD, expand more, improve supply chains, lower costs, etc.

While raising prices appears to go against the mission of bringing affordable EVs to the masses--the benefits of (4) outweigh the drawbacks at this stage in the game. And in the end, you've sold the same number of cars since you're supply-limited, so you didn't slow down the transition to sustainable transport in the process.

There is also a beneficial side-effect of raising prices. Potential buyers that see falling prices are incentivized to hold off on their purchase, exacerbating a demand problem. Conversely, when a potential customer sees prices in the product they're interested in going up, they are incentivized to purchase sooner, stimulating more demand.

This seems like a no-brainer to me, and I'm also surprised that Elon doesn't see it.

 

[RobStark]

‘Car Wars' study finds concentration of coming CUVs will squeeze profits

 

[Todd Burch]

I will be happy to post a comment to today’s Russ Mitchell LAT article. Can anyone help with how to word such, including perhaps quotes from Autonomy Day? Needs to be polite, not combative.

Don't waste your time. Russ is a d-bag who makes sweet love with the TSLAQ crowd on a nightly basis. He even uses TSLAQ's Twitter block list.

 

[Todd Burch]

Not much SEC can do about free speech

By that logic it's perfectly fine to tweet about $420.

 

[SO16]

At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year

It seems to me that Elon’s position has not changed.

His remarked at Autonomy Day were widely misinterpreted to mean that he would somehow manufacture one million new vehicles in 18 months to be used for robotaxis. Anyone have a transcript with his exact quotes?

I see that there is was piece published by Teslarati about the same event in April, characterizing the remarks exactly as he said them yesterday at the stockholders meeting:
Tesla Network's Robotaxis can usher in a $500 billion market cap, says Elon Musk
Excerpt from above: “Elon Musk further noted that by next year, Tesla would have 1 million vehicles on the road that could potentially take part in its Robotaxi fleet.”

I will be happy to post a comment to today’s Russ Mitchell LAT article. Can anyone help with how to word such, including perhaps quotes from Autonomy Day? Needs to be polite, not combative.

I sent a message to the author and this was his response:


thanks for writing. here’s what he said in April:

“Next year for sure — we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

R



Does anyone have the transcript around this? I suspect Elon said it correctly and then messed up this line.

 

[Remus]

GAAP+ makes little difference. Its not like Tesla will start paying dividends. Tesla just needs to be cashflow +ve.

Bears/Shorts think Tesla will go bankrupt. There is nothing to talk regarding their "concerns". Afterall they would like Tesla to go bankrupt - it is their hope, not a "concern".

It's all in the eyes of the beholder isn't it.

When Tesla has profits, they say the growth story is dead. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[Singuy]

Sure - EM says all kinds of things all the time. As has been reported many times here

But the point stands, GAAP+ for a company growing 50%+ a year is not something we should worry about.

I should say the market does NOT care about GAAP+. It cares about cash flow (and non-GAAP).

It's something HE shouldnt worry about. His credibility is already questionable. I remember just by that one statement during ER q3..."we should expect to be profitable from this point on" jumped the stock by 20 points.

With so much noise surrounding Tesla, I look toward the CEO to give us clear signals. It just erks me when he is also part of the noise sometime.

 

[Sancho]

The shareholders meeting didn’t do much for me either way, but it did remind me of one plain truth: it’s the batteries, stupid.

Tesla — and TSLA — prospects will be determined by the success it continues to have in out-innovating and out-investing its competitors in batteries.

There may be an even bigger win in the autonomy race, but I’m not counting on that yet.

The three presenters yesterday sure looked confident about their battery roadmap. Based on their past success, I wouldn’t bet against this team.

 

[schonelucht]

I should say the market does NOT care about GAAP+. It cares about cash flow (and non-GAAP).

Agree. What surprised me was that Elon wasn't very firm about cash flow positive this quarter. I really have a hard time seeing how they can be cash flow negative (net of new investment) while selling a record number of cars.

 

[dw4ngg]

Not much SEC can do about free speech

Except on Twitter..

 

[Singuy]

Agree. What surprised me was that Elon wasn't very firm about cash flow positive this quarter. I really have a hard time seeing how they can be cash flow negative (net of new investment) while selling a record number of cars.

Cash flow negative this quarter at 90k+ deliveries will be more devastating to the stock than having 75k deliveries. Investors will flock if an annualized 400k cars can't even remain cash flow positive. Also it damages credibility even more since q1 guided for cash flow positive.

 

[jerry33]

By that logic it's perfectly fine to tweet about $420.

No one ever said the SEC was fair or impartial.

 

[Remus]

is this posted? ;-)

When talking about "competition":
"There are people who buy fun cars and there are people who buy functional cars, never these two kinds of people mix, until Tesla!"

He did not even mention TCO.
7 year leads and growing...

More drama:
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds To Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now.

With only 3 models, limited color choices, so much growth opportunity, who the f cares about GAAP+?!

just bought 50 at 216 and another 50 at 213.

 

[Mike Smith]

I find it really dishonest of the media to claim that TSLA is falling because investors have lost confidence. They never mention the fact that 20M shares have been sold short since February. Maybe that might be worth mentioning as a possible reason for the drop?

 

[Fact Checking]

I sent a message to the author and this was his response:


thanks for writing. here’s what he said in April:

“Next year for sure — we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road.”

R



Does anyone have the transcript around this? I suspect Elon said it correctly and then messed up this line.

That is an out of context quote.

Here's the full quote (I quoted from the Youtube auto-generated transcript)

It wasn't "misinterpreted", what Elon said was lied about with an out of context quote.

Here's what Elon said about a million vehicles on the Autonomy Investor Day, verbatim:

"we still have the data gathering ability and then by a year from now we'll have over a million cars with full self-driving computer hardware"

"by the middle of next year we'll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving Hardware feature complete at a reliably level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep in your from our standpoint if you fast for a year should look maybe a year maybe a year in three months but next year for sure we will have over a million Robo taxis on the road"​

Which is true and has not changed: in 2020 there will be over a million AP HW 2 and later vehicles on the road.

He misspoke the "million robo taxis on the road", it was clear from the context right before it that he meant 1 million FSD-capable cars on the road.

An hour after the talk the TSLAQ terrorists were already test-running their false narrative that Elon promised a million robotaxis, supported by the out of context quote that left out the FSD-capable bit. He didn't say that and he's not backpedaling.

In both contexts Elon correctly qualified it with "cars with full self-driving computer hardware", or with "cars with full self-driving hardware feature". He misspoke about the million robo taxis on the road but it was clear from the context right before it what he meant by that million.

 

[Snerruc]

Instead of advertising they could do product placement

They have on The Price Is Right.

 

[SO16]

That is an out of context quote.

Here's the full quote (I quoted from the Youtube auto-generated transcript)



In both contexts Elon correctly qualified it with "cars with full self-driving computer hardware", or with "cars with full self-driving hardware feature". He misspoke about the million robo taxis on the road but it was clear from the context right before it what he meant by that million.

Perfect! Mind if I use this information in my response to him?

 

[Off Shore]

I was just pointing out this was not new information like you claimed. It was during the last Investor Conference when he said it made sense to pour profits back into the business. It was not new information.

Don't expect a dividend for at least 7 years.

Please don't expect a dividend until the Mars colony is self-sustaining.

 

[EVMeister]

is this posted? ;-)

When talking about "competition":
"There are people who buy fun cars and there are people who buy functional cars, never these two kinds of people mix, until Tesla!"

He did not even mention TCO.
7 year leads and growing...

More drama:
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds To Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now.

With only 3 models, limited color choices, so much growth opportunity, who the f cares about GAAP+?!

just bought 50 at 216 and another 50 at 213.

Notice how they always seem to end with the bearish analysts who make ridiculous and false claims (like the Model 3 starting at "55gs") without being challenged?

 

[Fact Checking]

Please don't expect a dividend until the Mars colony is self-sustaining.

Even then it's probably a better use of the excess trillions of profits to not be turned into dividends, but used for the interstellar colonization project. Even for a huge firm like Musk Industries it's a financial stretch to build a self-sustaining starship the size of a small moon.