Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I would love to see Tesla energy grow but why would they do suddenly better then the other players? The solar roof is bloody expensive and won’t be a major factor until cost is within reason. Elon thinks we all pay $55k for our roofs but most don’t. The powerwall is a good differentiator but real quantities won’t be here for years. Once the Powerwall comes out in force the giant may awaken.

Musk seems to under sell solar due to power wall shortage and needing his employees to focus on deliveries. Many people has a hard time dealing with Tesla solar. Had a MD who was a model S owner had to continuous hunt down his solar representative and almost gave up.


You know when he is ready to upsell solar when he starts bundling cars with solar for a deal.

 

[Subhuman]

I do try and resist as much as possible though because I know he is a click whore and gets most of his "stories" from this forum and reddit posts.

I use to think that Electrek was really on top of all thing Tesla until I signed up for twitter and realized that 90% of the stories are just rehashed tweets from Elon.

 

[N5329K]

Hmm. It would be bad if people don’t tick the FSD option (all margin) on orders believing they can easily refer 10 friends.
Maybe set the free FSD bar at something only socialites and salespeople would believe achievable, 25 referrals.

I’d rather get something that actually exists. If that’s not possible, how about an acre of Utopia Planitia?
Robin

 

[Beltsbear]

I use to think that Electrek was really on top of all thing Tesla until I signed up for twitter and realized that 90% of the stories are just rehashed tweets from Elon.

Actually it’s 25% each of:
Reddit posts
TMC posts
Elon tweets
Other people’s stories that hit first

 

[JRP3]

I use to think that Electrek was really on top of all thing Tesla until I signed up for twitter and realized that 90% of the stories are just rehashed tweets from Elon.

For a while it was pretty good. That time has passed.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

To be fair, as was mentioned earlier, one should not have to “verify” a 13F is accurate.

In a former life, I used to work as the man in the middle between the trading desk and compliance to pull positions for various reporting requirements, including the 13F. If we committed a “clerical error” you can be damned sure we would catch hell and then some from the principals and clients. To me, that speaks more about lack of oversight and controls at Jimmy’s (“Oops... sorry boss! Accidentally hit the buy button instead of the sell button like you told me! Clerical error lolz! YOLO!”)

In addition, as most on here also know, this was a mountain out of a molehill for a fund(s) with $1.2bln AUM. Wasting time discussing this is like lending credence to that other guy who manages a “fund” about the size of a responsible, hard working couple would amass in retirement savings.

 

[M3Rider]

Now, oil represents 50% of Russia's exports. If Putin was willing to interfere in the 2016 election, logic dictates that he and his oligarchs would also use social media as a weapon to protect their oil interests. Shaping a negative public opinion on Tesla and EVs more broadly is one way to do this. And, in addition to Facebook and Twitter, Seeking Alpha would be a prime social and financial media target. Just observe the plethora of bearish articles on Tesla here, as well as the mind numbing amount of bearish comments on each and every Tesla article and news story. I'm not saying that this is all due to propaganda or trolls, but the quantity certainly seems well out of proportion compared to other stocks, past and present. And this ill proportionality has been well pointed out by other media observers, with the result that most bulls don't even bother reading SA anymore.

Honestly, I doubted they'd bother with this having so many internal issues to deal with, but recently somebody posted an article about Tesla and cited a ton of trollish comments under it. When I went and looked, there were zero comments. Then somebody mentioned Google was cleaning up troll accounts recently. There's one unfaithful troll working at the troll factory, who regularly posts on their current assignments and activities via Telegram channel. He's been pretty generic and creative to avoid capture for quite a bit of time.
You can put this through translator or have Chrome translate automatically if interested Исповедь кремлебота

Pretty petty stuff most of time - bashing opposition figures, cracking down on any dissent.
But he did mention the removal of the troll accounts their factory controls is making a dent - ex. msg from May 27:
"Unlike Facebook with their loud press releases, Youtube (Google) silently, but systematically and regularly cleans our accounts. Recently, so actively banned that there are not enough resources to replenish lost accounts."

So, it does look like what you said is probable. Fyi - this troll works in "interior" department and is not much informed on activities of his "international department" colleagues, so just knows bits and pieces.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Interesting that the free colour has gone from black to white. Is this a cost of painting thing or an appealing to a wider market thing?
If painting white is cheaper than painting black, I'd love to hear why.
I can vouch that in most of Australia, black paint is terrible - rapidly turning the car into a solar oven. I also prefer white paint for safety (visibility).

Twitter

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If painting white is cheaper than painting black, I'd love to hear why.

From what I understand, black paint reveals minor flaws and scratches much more than white paint does. It could also be that black is very popular, so might as well charge more money for it. I'm guessing it is a combo of the two.

 

[JRP3]

I hate white cars, maybe because I learned to drive in a white 71 Dodge Dart. Which I totaled. (Sorry Mom).

 

[CalX]

That is a fundamental part of basic journalist ethics.

If Fred wishes to be considered a journalist then he should behave as one. (even if few "journalists" remember the basics themselves)

I was shocked to see him disclose that he had a long position in Tesla. He seems to make careless mistakes that go both ways. But to consider that a filing might be wrong and to double check is asking a bit much. When the NYT reporter has a huge story that Elon makes 2.3 billion without checking, how can you expect a blog writer who admits he is not a journalist to double check.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Interesting comment by user Quark Star on recent SA news article:

Tesla 'throws in the towel' on growing residential solar, report says - Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) | Seeking Alpha

"It seems to me that a lot of user accounts here were created for the sole purpose of only posting bearish comments about Tesla. First, many of these users only post comments about Tesla articles. Second, many of them have screen names that seek to mock Tesla/Musk or praise bearish critics. Witness the various permutations of "Montana Skeptic" that abounds. And witness Tesla/Musk mocking names such as "flufferty the gigabit", "Yambol-Musk isn't a genius, people are just stupid.", "VIN Electric II", "Dansplans where we build our Tesla shorts with Love and sport Alien Dreadlocks", and so on.

Because of this, I question the motive of many of these users. Are they paid trolls? Do they work for outside interests that benefit from a potential Tesla failure? Such interests could be the many hedge funds that short Tesla, or large oil interests, be it in the US, Middle East, or Russia.

In regards to the latter, it is well known that Putin interfered in the 2016 election via a vast social media campaign targeting Facebook, Twitter, etc. (Many now also believe that Putin similarly interfered in the Brexit election, and perhaps even other elections.)

Now, oil represents 50% of Russia's exports. If Putin was willing to interfere in the 2016 election, logic dictates that he and his oligarchs would also use social media as a weapon to protect their oil interests. Shaping a negative public opinion on Tesla and EVs more broadly is one way to do this. And, in addition to Facebook and Twitter, Seeking Alpha would be a prime social and financial media target. Just observe the plethora of bearish articles on Tesla here, as well as the mind numbing amount of bearish comments on each and every Tesla article and news story. I'm not saying that this is all due to propaganda or trolls, but the quantity certainly seems well out of proportion compared to other stocks, past and present. And this ill proportionality has been well pointed out by other media observers, with the result that most bulls don't even bother reading SA anymore.

Whether it is Russia, US oil interests, or Wall Street hedge funds, it is clear that there is large social media smear campaign targeting Tesla. With this awareness in mind, it is ever more important for retail (mom & pop) investors to be vigilant about what they read online and to critically assess articles and comments for their authenticity, truthfulness, and motives. I hope, as well, that the SA editors take notice and heed this warning. But in all likelihood, I expect this comment to be deleted. Tesla bulls simply don't have a voice here at SA."

SA just deleted this comment. Censoring bulls as usual!

I've noticed that any mention of Russia or Russian trolls in connection with an anti-Tesla smear campaign is immediately deleted off SA, which leads me to suspect that there is in fact some kind of connection. Seems a bit conspiracy theorist, but then again so does the Russian interference in Brexit and the 2016 US elections.

 

[anthonyj]

Call me crazy, but I bought a 5th July lottery ticket with $290 strike for 0.37 - just the one as I had some small change in my trading account.

I'm mad, I am.

In for 10 of them tomorrow

 

[TNEVol]

The used market is interesting.
Right now the cheapest way to get a Tesla is to buy a 2012-2013 Model S, which are starting to slip below $30K. 2014s are at least $30K. 2015s and newer are at least $37K.
Used Model Xs are at least $59K. Used Roadsters start at $48K. Used Model 3s start around $40K (same as new Model 3s!)

I feel like the market for pre-Autopilot Model Ses is weaker than it should be. I think many sellers are pricing according to a standard depreciation curve, which is an error (they can get more money than that). I suspect as buyers realize what a deal these are, the going prices won't slip below $25K, probably ever (apart from damaged cars, of course). It'll probably still stay under the price of the new Model 3s, though.

Tesla offered me $18,000 on trade in for P3 on my 2013 P85. I'm keeping it.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla offered me $18,000 on trade in for P3 on my 2013 P85. I'm keeping it.

Honestly afraid to have my P85D appraised and I bought it only a year ago. However, it has the Performance+ suspension and the newer Tesla’s don’t handle nearly as well. New Tesla’s are like riding on a cloud, this thing is basically a go kart on steroids. It is a godly vehicle.

 

[TNEVol]

Honestly afraid to have my P85D appraised and I bought it only a year ago. However, it has the Performance+ suspension and the newer Tesla’s don’t handle nearly as well. New Tesla’s are like riding on a cloud, this thing is basically a go kart on steroids. It is a godly vehicle.

Yep push it down and hang on.

 

[Carl Raymond]

From what I understand, black paint reveals minor flaws and scratches much more than white paint does. It could also be that black is very popular, so might as well charge more money for it. I'm guessing it is a combo of the two.

Oh, okay. I hadn't realised that black paint was popular. So Tesla can expect a small flood of orders between now and month end for black cars. That's handy. And from July they get another surge of orders for plain white cars. Also handy.

 

[Singuy]

Interesting that the free colour has gone from black to white. Is this a cost of painting thing or an appealing to a wider market thing?
If painting white is cheaper than painting black, I'd love to hear why.
I can vouch that in most of Australia, black paint is terrible - rapidly turning the car into a solar oven. I also prefer white paint for safety (visibility).

Twitter

Elon in an interview actually said white is extremely popular in the U.S, but not very popular in EU. Also the white that will be free is a single coat I believe, not the current pearl white multi-coat.

 

[TNEVol]

I try not to write anything that might be used by trolls and I may be under 2 NDAs but I agree with @nerodan that FSD is a long way away based on our M3. I do not consider it an enhancement re investment for at least 5 years since it is a WIP. I have had the M3 for over a year and 40k miles and it has improved but still has some of the issues it had a year ago on AP. Some of them disappeared and then came back months later (today). IMO FSD will come and Tesla is well positioned but EMs projection is very unlikely.

 

[Curt Renz]

I hate white cars, maybe because I learned to drive in a white 71 Dodge Dart. Which I totaled. (Sorry Mom).

White cars are involved in the fewest accidents due to enhanced ability to be seen, especially at night. The opposite is true for black cars. Red cars are the ones most likely to be pulled over by traffic cops.