Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dqd88]

I was a bit concerned when my older son decided not to bother with college at all. However it's nine years later and the only problem he's had is shutting the doors of all the opportunities that don't interest him. Silicon Valley continues to be such that if you can do useful stuff nobody cares how you learned to do it. It's still nerd heaven.

* And, no, none of his opportunities came from me. Although the chance to interview for one internship came from a friend of my wife.

SV is an anomaly - if you can program, you can find work. Hollywood is another one (entertainment biz/acting).

 

[SteveG3]

Oil price jumps after Iran shoots down US drone

per BBC, confirmed a US drone by US. oil up 2.9%

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Just for context, April was 3,000 units:

View attachment 421181

The very round 3,000 and 2,000 numbers suggest that there's significant uncertainty regarding this data, right?

Anyway, if June simply repeats May then that's 7k Model 3 deliveries alone in Q2. If Tesla China follows the pattern of past quarters then June would be double the deliveries of May, which would increase Model 3 deliveries to 9k perhaps?

They probably have the inventory, otherwise they wouldn't have pulled the various demand levers to move inventory.

Anyway, even with 7k this would suggest a record quarter if NA manages 66k deliveries and Europe manages 20k: 66k+20k+7k=93k.

And they probably also sold some S and X in China this quarter...

 

[Artful Dodger]

There could be a happy medium here. If Elon says he believes it's too valuable to give away for 10 referrals as it will generate lots of cash in a few years he could just set the threshold higher (e.g. 25). Most people would believe they will never get to 25 referrals so the idea would be removed from the purchase decision, while those who really want the free upgrade will work extra hard and generate a lot of revenue for Tesla.

The campaign has to have the objective of selling more FSD licenses, not more Tesla vehicles. They already can't make enough cars; but they can sell lots more FSD licences. Especially should focus on the Post-Oct 2016 owners who may not even be aware their car can be retrofitted to FSD.

But since FSD isn't available as a product yet, it's clear that any such campaign is also premature.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Oil price jumps after Iran shoots down US drone

per BBC, confirmed a US drone by US. oil up 2.9%

Those things costs $121M each. The US isn't going to be happy :Þ

 

[Antares Nebula]

The campaign has to have the objective of selling more FSD licenses, not more Tesla vehicles. They already can't make enough cars; but they can sell lots more FSD licences. Especially should focus on the Post-Oct 2016 owners who may not even be aware their car can be retrofitted to FSD.

But since FSD isn't available as a product yet, it's clear that any such campaign is also premature.

Cheers!

Also the idea of giving FSD as a reward is ultimately self-defeating in that (even the current) FSD features are part of the advantage and allure of a Tesla. A Tesla owner trying to gain referrals should already have FSD in their car for demonstration to the potential customer. If people thought that they could get FSD by gaining referrals, then they may not buy it in the first place and would not have it to demonstrate to the customer, which would ultimately lead to less sales (and referrals).

It is a self-reference paradox! A vicious (and not virtuous) circularity. (See Godel.*)

@SPadival and those with twitter access please warn Elon about this (if he hasn't already figured it out), lest he take a cue from Fred/Electrek and act on this idea. Thank you!

* Self-Reference, Math Foundations and Gödel’s Incompleteness

 

[AlexS]

GS downgraded to $158

 

[mariaaa]

GS downgraded to $158

What pathetic idiots. I really do not see any reason for this downgrade in this period of time.

 

[Antares Nebula]

For those interested (in ref to my above post), the first self-referential offender (from antiquity):

The Liar paradox - Wikipedia or/AKA Epimenides paradox - Wikipedia

Unsolved to this day (at least with any consensus). Likely unsolvable, implying the incompleteness of the notion of "truth".

 

[AlexS]

What pathetic idiots. I really do not see any reason for this downgrade in this period of time.

GS customers asked to keep price lower to pick up some cheaper shares or cover some shorts

BTW:nice avatar pic

 

[AlexS]

GS is worried about sustainable demand, because of Model Y. Probably just trying to keep price in Max pain range for the week.
Goldman Sachs cuts Tesla price target: 'Downward path for shares will resume'

 

[heltok]

Not sure if it has been posted here, but this video was awesome. Made me really want to get a Model 3!

 

[STARR X]

EV Sales: China May 2019

What I find impressive about this chart is that there will be around 1,000,000 EV’s sold in China in 2019. What a huge opportunity for Tesla.

 

[urarthur]

GS is worried about sustainable demand, because of Model Y. Probably just trying to keep price in Max pain range for the week.
Goldman Sachs cuts Tesla price target: 'Downward path for shares will resume'

This is plain and simpel market manipulation. Timing a day before option expiration, a week before #s are released and no material info has been published recently except positive news form the CEO that a record quarter is likely.

A downgrade to $158?? What took them so long? All the stated info was available 2 months ago. Citing model Y cannibalization.. Model Y was unveilied 3 months ago.

It is ridicolous at how many fronts Tesla is fighting.

 

[Antares Nebula]

GS downgraded to $158

Wondering where the FUD would come from. Honestly, was expecting a pullback. Shorts need to cover, and their Wall Street buddies obliged.

Indexes are up, but wait till Trump speaks: let's fire Powell and/or attack Iran! I will be buying the dip. Gap fill at 204 and 196. Let's see what happens! Bring it shorts!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

What I find impressive about this chart is that there will be around 1,000,000 EV’s sold in China in 2019. What a huge opportunity for Tesla.

What's more is that Tesla will likely be producing ~1,500 Model 3s per week at GF3 by the end of Q4. That production rate alone will make them the No.1 EV in China by Jan 2020.

Chinese New Year of 2020 falls on January 25th (Saturday), and the festival will last to February 8th, about 15 days in total. But the other EV makers will be shutdown too.

Then, at 3K/wk some time in 2020, Model 3 will sell more EVs in China than the next two brands combined. That's for Phase 1. And GF3 has 4 phases of construction planned. This is gonna get big.

Cheers!

 

[AlexS]

My wet dream for today is that GS dump will be bought up. This will show some real strength in this stock. Most probably will not gonna happen though.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

We are hours from the first UK model 3 deliveries Anyone get 'the text' yet?

 

[Boomer19]

Nice move up in pre-market trading to ~$229 - largely tracking FAANG and NASDAQ futures enthusiasm about the Fed's dovish tone yesterday.

until goldman shows up with a downgrade

 

[schonelucht]

Also. First SRs were delivered today in Europe.