Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Gien that normal wall sockets in Germany are 230 V 16 amps... including the 80% derating factor for continuous loads... that's about "10 miles per hour" of charging for a Model 3. 10 hours of overnight charging would get you about 100 miles. Some people would want faster charging, but that would be plenty for a lot of people. Could install a couple of heavier circuits.

The main issue appears to be the apartment builder's assumption that everyone would be using all the sockets at max rate all the time, which is not realistic. While it is certainly possible to buy enough electric service to cover that use case (as I demonstrated), it would make more sense to make rational assumptions regarding customer usage, and have load balancers so that everyone could plug in, but the rates of charging would drop if everyone was pulling power at once. I mean, even Tesla does this with its Superchargers. Most of the time, most people will be drawing nothing -- either their car is being driven, or their batteries will already be full, So only a few people will be pulling full power. Occasionally lots of people will be plugged in, and they can all have lower rates of charging until some of them fill up.

This solution is actually commercially available as an off-the-shelf product (called ‘ChargingPlaza’) in Germany (and Benelux): Charging solutions - Smart charging - Allego. The first installations in Belgium were done in october 2017: Intervest krijgt eerste laadpleinen.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla is very cautious about Chinese demand as evidenced by them building a factory with a planned maximum output of only 500K cars/year.

I want the five people who rated this post "funny" to know that I'm serious. Demand in China and even in some of the nearby countries will be unrelenting.

 

[JusRelax]

I'm torn.. do I like Jim Chanos' tweet calling out Fred for not asking him directly about his 13F?

Diogenes on Twitter

 

[madodel]

'Hands free driving' is obviously a false and dangerous claim, since you have to use your hands during interventions. Where is the outrage at consumer reports?

Good question. They also post a link to to the CR article “Cadillac Tops Tesla in Consumer Reports’ First Ranking of Automated Driving Systems”
on where their supersafe hands free driving is rated above Tesla. But they put a disclaimer saying in very small type: Consumer Reports "Consumer Reports does not endorse products or services."

 

[dha]

I'm torn.. do I like Jim Chanos' tweet calling out Fred for not asking him directly about his 13F?

Diogenes on Twitter

Not torn on this. I'm no fan of Fred's but I think it's entirely reasonable for journalists to operate on the assumption that SEC filings are accurate.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not torn on this. I'm no fan of Fred's but I think it's entirely reasonable for journalists to operate on the assumption that SEC filings are accurate.

redFay is no Journalist. He's a blogger. Journalists aren't allowed to take multi-100-thousand dollar gifts from the companies they report on.

 

[Sudre]

Imho there’s a big difference between Elon answering ‘will consider’ to a suggestion on Twitter and Freds clickbaity title ‘Tesla is considering’. The last one usually implies a self initiated plan, the first one definitely not.

Yah this probably was Fred calling a Tesla rep and suggesting they offer self driving as referral reward and the Tesla rep said, “We will consider it.” Then he wrote the article.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yah this probably was Fred calling a Tesla rep and suggesting they offer self driving as referral reward and the Tesla rep said, “We will consider it.” Then he wrote the article.

No, Elon was asked on Twitter whether 10 referrals could earn the FSD option, and he replied "Will consider it.".

That's all to it, and Fred's headline is rather misleading, as usual.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yah this probably was Fred calling a Tesla rep and suggesting they offer self driving as referral reward and the Tesla rep said, “We will consider it.” Then he wrote the article.

Almost as bad, but it's more of an inference article from Elon's reply to someone suggesting that 10 referrals should get free FSD. To which Elon replied, "will consider". That's pretty much a "definite maybe" type answer.

Edit: Damn it FC! Why you gotta be so fast!

 

[EVMeister]

^^ Fast Checking.

 

[schonelucht]

No, Elon was asked on Twitter whether 10 referrals could earn the FSD option, and he replied "Will consider it.".

That's all to it, and Fred's headline is rather misleading, as usual.

Maybe I am missing some English finesse here, but if Elon says "Will consider it", then that means he is considering it? (unless he were lying which I would find very odd) And if Elon is considering something then for all intents and purposes Tesla is considering it.

 

[jerry33]

Maybe I am missing some English finesse here, but if Elon says "Will consider it", then that means he is considering it? (unless he were lying which I would find very odd) And if Elon is considering something then for all intents and purposes Tesla is considering it.

It's a rather neutral statement, with no implication that it will be done.

 

[Swampgator]

It's a rather neutral statement, with no implication that it will be done.

True, but schon was correct as well.

The real issue is Fred is a douche and half the people on a TESLA forum don't like him. I have to admit I still go to his site (it is well done and easy to read, unlike Inside EVs)
I do try and resist as much as possible though because I know he is a click whore and gets most of his "stories" from this forum and reddit posts.

 

[canoemore]

Maybe I am missing some English finesse here, but if Elon says "Will consider it", then that means he is considering it? (unless he were lying which I would find very odd) And if Elon is considering something then for all intents and purposes Tesla is considering it.

There's an episode of the West Wing where CJ Cregg explains that the only thing President Bartlett can do to avoid a controversial topic is to avoid a question about whether he has considered it, because once he is asked the question, he will, by definition, have considered it.

Musk responded to a suggestion/question, so by definition he has "considered" it. Pretty meaningless though if you ask me...

 

[Swampgator]

There's an episode of the West Wing where CJ Cregg explains that the only thing President Bartlett can do to avoid a controversial topic is to avoid a question about whether he has considered it, because once he is asked the question, he will, by definition, have considered it.

Musk responded to a suggestion/question, so by definition he has "considered" it. Pretty meaningless though if you ask me...

Not really. You just contradicted your own post. He could have simply ignored it. Like he does for 99% of the tweets he may or may not see.

 

[M3Rider]

So, looks like Leaf+ has a higher price in Europe @45k € than SR+ ?
Nissan LEAF e+ Begins Sales In Europe With 8,000 Orders

Hmm, 8k want to buy it why? Because hatchback?

 

[Singuy]

Maybe I am missing some English finesse here, but if Elon says "Will consider it", then that means he is considering it? (unless he were lying which I would find very odd) And if Elon is considering something then for all intents and purposes Tesla is considering it.

Last time Elon considered something, it didn't happen. The consequences was a shitstorm for the stock, fines, and his position as chair.

 

[Zaxxon]

Not really. You just contradicted your own post. He could have simply ignored it. Like he does for 99% of the tweets he may or may not see.

No contradiction:

Musk responded to a suggestion/question, so by definition he has "considered" it. Pretty meaningless though if you ask me...

He did not ignore it, but responded. Therefore by definition he has considered it.

 

[Ad Astra]

Tesla slips to third place for solar installations in the U.S., Sunrun keeps lead

Do we know why Tesla solar isn't running on all cylinders? Until the solar roof comes and powerwalls are easily available out I expect moderate growth but it seems like they are lagging. I know the change from the leasing to buying model slowed them down quite a bit.

It's funny, but as much as we joke about constantly talking Tesla, I still have friends that don't realize I have one. I don't talk about it quite so much at work as there are large disparities in income between consultants and some employees but just had a co-worker/friend say "oh, I heard that you had or were getting a Tesla, I want to get one for my wife."
"yeah man, I've had it for almost a year, I'll give you a ride tomorrow. Recommend!" He has always been a BMW guy so it's nice to see another change teams.


Wow. I wonder if that is a push to get more referrals (I wouldn't think so) or a desire to get more FSD data and more FSD cars out there.

Based on past experience, I think the primary issue is in fact Powerwall availability. After the acquisition of SolarCity and subsequent attempts to integrate the solar business into the standard Tesla sales flow, our reps were instructed to pitch Tesla solar with or without Powerwall. This was mostly done because the Powerwall backlog was, to use Elon's terminology, absolutely nutty, and it was not uncommon for wait times for Powerwall orders to exceed 9+ months. Obviously, if you were interested in purchasing solar + storage but the + storage part would significantly delay the installation of the entire system, it made sense, from a business perspective, to sell the solar installation now and offer a retrofit of Powerwall once it became available. The key issue with this strategy, from my perspective, is that it handicaps one of the major selling points of Tesla solar; the solution to the intermittency problem of solar. Without a static storage solution to store excess solar energy for use during the evening, the addressable market for solar decreases significantly. What's more, it becomes harder for those "on the fence" about making the transition to solar to realize the true value of the system, especially in areas where most utilities don't offer net metering (i.e TX). So, as a result of this strategy we were left with many customer's who simply opted to holdout on a purchase of an entire solar system until Powerwall became readily available. To make matters worse, the mere mention of interest in Powerwall became a huge constraint for our sales staff because 1) they could not present the true value of the system 2) they had absolutely no idea when Powerwall would be available in large enough quantities to satisfy existing orders let alone new ones.

That said, I truly believe that Tesla Energy is the sleeping giant that mostly everyone seems to overlook. The demand for the products are unquestionably there, now it's just a matter of scaling production. The silver lining with scaling Powerwall and power pack production is the obvious reduction in complexity relative to vehicle production; easy peasy .​

 

[Doggydogworld]

So, at the end of the penultimate week of Q1, Norway deliveries stood at 4653 (thanks to waybackmachine for that):

View attachment 421010

Now, with 2 days left in the penultimate week the count is 3813:

View attachment 421012

It wouldn't be unreasonable to assume 600 deliveries by the end of the weekend, which would bring us to the 4400 region, very close.

So depends really what's in the pipe as there was clearly a huge push in the final week, but right now it's tracking very close to Q1.

They're 240-250 behind Q1 (see chart). Click on Norway, choose Tesla as the "Specific Brand" then click the "Brand QoQ" button. Today is Day 80 of Q2 and will end at ~3825 once they finish updating their numbers. Wednesday of the penultimate week was Day 79 in Q1, and ended at 4071.

Q2 got a head start because April beat the socks off January, but Q1 ramped faster once new ships started unloading. The lines finally crossed a couple weeks ago. Since then Q2 has fallen behind, although it closed the gap slightly today. Next week should be strong, but not insane like Q1's 2300+ final week. I estimate Q2 will end up at ~6000 vs 7046 in Q1.