Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Couldn't the short sellers have taken the day off instead of the buyers?

 

[UncaNed]

Slightly OT for information only, because I haven't seen it posted:

Bjørn Nyland (Teslabjorn), along with two other drivers, are currently attempting to break the world EV 24h distance record on the Autobahn in Germany -- you can watch live here.

They are using a Model 3 LR AWD (not his) and Ionity chargers, which allow them to top up at about 184kW. They run on a loop N-S on the A20 and recharge every hour or so, going between 6-8% and 60% SOC. They started last evening at 10pm local time (CEST) and will conclude at 10pm tonight. The current record stands at 2644km, and they seem to be slightly ahead of that on a km/h basis incl. charging.

If they can break the record, hopefully it gets picked up in the media and it's one extra nail in the coffin of "you can't road-trip in an EV".

Perhaps Bjørn is worthy of having his referral code used!

...Worth thinking about with our next Tesla purchase.

 

[ZachF]

It is a bit odd though when all the money in their fund originally comes from oil sales... Kind of a conflict of interest Norway has there, I'd say.

No, it's smart. It's a hedge for when the oil money disappears.

 

[EVDRVN]

BMW is right, there is no demand for electrified vehicles: BMW Group US electrified vehicle sales down 22.6% in June

At least not for BMW vehicles.

Tell that to the pinecone that cracked my Model 3 roof

Ouch, I did a drive to the Eastern Sierra and was shocked how many things my M3 picks up. I got an old antennae jammed in my under carriage that dragged down the highway, two large objects that hit by door, a rock in my brake rotor that almost required a wheel removal and likely scored the rotor. Seems like it is a debris magnet.

 

[Thumper]

BMW's Kruger steps down. BMW CEO Harald Kruger to step down: confirmed | Autocar

 

[Yonki]

Ouch, I did a drive to the Eastern Sierra and was shocked how many things my M3 picks up. I got an old antennae jammed in my under carriage that dragged down the highway, two large objects that hit by door, a rock in my brake rotor that almost required a wheel removal and likely scored the rotor. Seems like it is a debris magnet.

Was that pebble from Saturday’s Laguna Seca event?

 

[powertoold]

BMW's Kruger steps down. BMW CEO Harald Kruger to step down: confirmed | Autocar

Oh no!! BMW Bankwupting soon. Huge deal, BMW loses confidence in itself. Execs jumping ship at BMW. BMW loses its head.

 

[Tim S]

If you go over to the 3 forums, you’ll see that the model 3 roof is having some quality control issues. People are getting cracks in the glass.

If you go to the forums of any model of any car ever made, you will see "quality control issues".

 

[jbcarioca]

See, I would rather that Tesla leave this segment to someone else, or at the least have it be dead last in their priority list. Tesla is known for stylish, high-performance, long-range electric vehicles. An “M2” needs none of that. Even FCA can build an electric urbanbox...

Partly can agree but the M2 would occupy the sweetest spot in EU, China and most of the rest of the non-North America world. This category is absolutely NOT exclusively cheap. There is a gigantically profitable market in what is called "Hot Hatch" or "Pocket Rocket". While the argument of replacing the biggest polluters is applicable to all cars, I think you're completely missing the point about compact cars. Bluntly the most profits in the segment come from the most expensive versions. Here are a few Top Gear entries:
Pocket rockets: the best small hot hatches on sale
I have had quite a few of these myself: A Fiat Uno Turbo i.e., a Peugeot 208 CLI, with Porsche 911 interwoven. To any European, South American or Asian who likes high performance this category has high attention. Some are as expensive as Model 3 Performance/BMW M3 although most as far cheaper. For all of the the base versions of their body style sell for about half their price, sometimes less than half.

Tesla must be in this segment precisely because a Performance version in this category will be a huge halo, similar to the Roadster, but generate high margins too. The glory of this segment is that otherwise bland and ignorable cars like Suzuki Swift and Renault Clio turn into objects of desire, and produce very high GM.

Tesla must be in this segment for China and Europe, as well as most of the rest of the world. Obviously there is little reason to produce them for the US and Canada nor even Mexico. When Tesla produces one you may bet that I'll have a half dozen of them sold to my relatives in Europe within minutes.

 

[UncaNed]

$230 is the support, buying everything I can there

So $230, not $220 Friday?

The only thing I have is to drive down the price so Friday they can get the SP closer to Max Pain which sits at 220 last I saw it. They will probably be able to bring that up a bit. If "they" can drop the price another $8-$10 Friday I think it will work out for them.View attachment 426444

 

[NicoV]

Bjorn is not dumb but shouldn't he be using a LR RWD for this application?

I sincerely hope he doesn’t make a 24h video of the effort. Fred can make a tweet into an entire article, but Bjorn can make that into a 45 minute video.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest - July 2: EV Growth is Outperforming the Traditional S-Curve Dynamics

 

[M3Rider]

So $230, not $220 Friday?

On opricot, max pain is $227.5 today, pretty close. Tsla seems to follow nasdaq so far.
There's good chance we won't see a significant SP rise until ER. If I remember well, I think this was the case in Q3 18.

 

[madodel]

Couldn't the short sellers have taken the day off instead of the buyers?

They are a dedicated lot. Giving up their holiday weekend just to spread doom and gloom for a crooked buck.

 

[Nocturnal]

No sure why you think this way. A Tesla Model 3 is already cheaper up front than a comparable ICE car. Look at BMW M2 vs Model 3 performance for example. The Tesla is almost 3 grand cheaper. It's larger, has 4 doors, and outperforms the M2.

I'd compare it directly to the M3 myself (which is what I almost bought instead of my P3D). My car is partially a work vehicle and I calculated that I'm saving about 2k a year in gas vs the M3. That doesn't even include oil changes etc. The P3D is also far roomier on the inside.

 

[Tslynk67]

So we have bad macros because better than expected job figures put the damper on the possibility of interest rate cuts (even though the FED said pretty clearly they saw no reason to change them in the near future).

On the other hand, more people in work, means more people with the moment to buy a Model 3.

It's all BS!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Partly can agree but the M2 would occupy the sweetest spot in EU, China and most of the rest of the non-North America world. This category is absolutely NOT exclusively cheap. There is a gigantically profitable market in what is called "Hot Hatch" or "Pocket Rocket". While the argument of replacing the biggest polluters is applicable to all cars, I think you're completely missing the point about compact cars. Bluntly the most profits in the segment come from the most expensive versions. Here are a few Top Gear entries:
Pocket rockets: the best small hot hatches on sale
I have had quite a few of these myself: A Fiat Uno Turbo i.e., a Peugeot 208 CLI, with Porsche 911 interwoven. To any European, South American or Asian who likes high performance this category has high attention. Some are as expensive as Model 3 Performance/BMW M3 although most as far cheaper. For all of the the base versions of their body style sell for about half their price, sometimes less than half.

Tesla must be in this segment precisely because a Performance version in this category will be a huge halo, similar to the Roadster, but generate high margins too. The glory of this segment is that otherwise bland and ignorable cars like Suzuki Swift and Renault Clio turn into objects of desire, and produce very high GM.

Tesla must be in this segment for China and Europe, as well as most of the rest of the world. Obviously there is little reason to produce them for the US and Canada nor even Mexico. When Tesla produces one you may bet that I'll have a half dozen of them sold to my relatives in Europe within minutes.

Yeah, I get your point and I’m thoroughly unfamiliar with this segment. l'll just point out that Tesla's mission is not to maximize profits. There must be some metric that Tesla uses to target highest CO2 reduction per $ investment (their current product plans seem to make sense in that regard). Granted, they have to generate the $, hence halo and high margin products.

 

[NicoV]

ARK Invest - July 2: EV Growth is Outperforming the Traditional S-Curve Dynamics

Amazing how ARK invest’s analyses are well thought out and well researched. The other analysts use the ancient method of killing a chicken and building their thesis based on the layout of the chicken’s intestines.

 

[Nocturnal]

So we have bad macros because better than expected job figures put the damper on the possibility of interest rate cuts (even though the FED said pretty clearly they saw no reason to change them in the near future).

On the other hand, more people in work, means more people with the moment to buy a Model 3.

It's all BS!

"Lots of Americans have jobs. This is terrible news for the economy." Sigh.

 

[Captkerosene]

I don't think the semi, Truck or Roadster 2 will be built ... and I'll tell you why: All production will be dedicated to building out the Robotaxi platform (3,Y, X,S). If you can build a RT for 40K and it's worth 100K on the platform, you'd be crazy to build anything else. The demand for these vehicles is something like 100 million units so there is no point in wasting resources developing other products unless it's as a Plan B (in case autonomous doesn't work). Let the other companies design and build electric cars that people want to own and drive for private use.

We'll need to saturate the planet as quickly as possible with these RTs. If we have the best hardware, software and electric vehicles our business will be impenetrable if we can satisfy the demand.

100 million robotaxis earning 10K/year is $1T/year in profit. $1T/year in profit translates into a market cap of $10T. (Yes, that's trillions.)

The best possible news from Tesla would be a suspension of all activities not directly related to design and production of future RT's.