Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

Maybe not enough volume... yet? I read here that Tesla requires only they do camera alignment. So people just go to the SC for the whole thing, but it's all out of pocket, and pricey. Insurance companies will bock at this eventually. Labor is $40/hr for normal windshield techs, but $125/hr Tesla Labor rates? This could be how they're getting to a profitable SC. The tire thing too.

Hey, as long as there is Tesla profit somewhere! Protecting the environment can be expensive when you go it alone.

Right, I think Tesla works with Safelite and stock them up with windshield....

 

[Singer3000]

I hope this hasn't been posted yet, but it would bring more demand for Tesla in Europe. At least people switching from SR+ to LR.
10% Duties on American cars could be terminated in Europe.
Handelsstreit: EU bietet Abschaffung von Zöllen auf US-Autos an

If this is true it would lift a major cloud from the stock price, of Tesla being potentially hit by retaliatory tariffs of 25% in a market traditionally making up a quarter of their sales. Giga 4 still nowhere to be seen...

On the contrary, most European consumers would see more than €4k knocked off a Model 3 SR+. Spectacular for demand and good for margin, as a lot of consumers would likely use at least part of the saving to upgrade.

So why the slightly red stock price on Monday? Well...
EU redoubles threat to retaliate if U.S. raises auto tariffs - Reuters

Sabine Weyand, new EU Trade Commissioner: "If Washington pushed ahead with its threat to raise auto tariffs to 25%, Brussels would respond with tariffs of its own, resulting in a “lose-lose” situation for all involved." She cited advances in some areas, such as setting standards and conformity assessments for trade, and on liquefied natural gas shipments, but there had been little movement on the bigger issue of industrial tariffs.​

In short, the market will only believe it when it sees it.

Ms Weyand doesn't have the best record recently, having failed to strike a mutually agreeable and deliverable trade and exit deal with the UK during the Brexit talks. Hopefully she's learnt some lessons. Perhaps our resident Commission deep agent @Lycanthrope can begin a subliminal campaign so Sabine begins to associate US cars with happy memories. Free doughnuts with Musk's face sprinkled in the icing or something.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tesla reveals revolutionary new wiring architecture to help robots build upcoming cars like Model Y

Great news, 100 meter wiring for Model Y vs 1500 and 3000 for Model 3 and Model S, respectively.

Still such a click-baity headline without mentioning it’s a patent.

They say a leopard can’t change its spot, and it’s so true for Fred.

 

[mblakele]

Maybe not enough volume... yet? I read here that Tesla requires only they do camera alignment. So people just go to the SC for the whole thing, but it's all out of pocket, and pricey. Insurance companies will bock at this eventually. Labor is $40/hr for normal windshield techs, but $125/hr Tesla Labor rates? This could be how they're getting to a profitable SC. The tire thing too.

Hey, as long as there is Tesla profit somewhere! Protecting the environment can be expensive when you go it alone.

Right, I think Tesla works with Safelite and stock them up with windshield....

This doesn't seem like the right thread for a windshield replacement discussion. However you can read my story in this thread, and I'd be happy to continue the conversation there.

SF Bay Area glass & windshield replacement experiences

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla reveals revolutionary new wiring architecture to help robots build upcoming cars like Model Y

Great news, 100 meter wiring for Model Y vs 1500 and 3000 for Model 3 and Model S, respectively.

Still such a click-baity headline without mentioning it’s a patent.

They say a leopard can’t change its spot, and it’s so true for Fred.

This isn't news. Musk said this like 3 years ago. The patent is just out now.

 

[StealthP3D]

I expect some hefty covering in the end of the day

I expect the nefarious big money to bid it up on Tuesday or Wednesday going into earnings so they have a hefty supply of shares to dump in Wednesday After Hours trading and on Thursday morning. They will do this to send the signal that Wall Street is not happy with the results - it's even more effective than a negative news story. These players try to maintain a hold on the popular narrative surrounding Tesla. However, if the results are as good as I'm expecting, they may hold their shares for the post-earnings run-up and dump them a few days later to profit a bunch and cause a "correction". But if the results are that bullish there will likely be too much new money coming into TSLA for the correction to last long.

 

[Antares Nebula]

EV Transmissions Are Coming, And It's A Good Thing | CleanTechnica

 

[alloverx]

Be ironic if the paint from GF3 vehicles is better than US versions due to China environmental rules not being as strict as California.
Would this be a negative or a positive for Tesla?
How would this be reported in the media?

 

[Krugerrand]

Be ironic if the paint from GF3 vehicles is better than US versions due to China environmental rules not being as strict as California.
Would this be a negative or a positive for Tesla?
How would this be reported in the media?

Neither.

Doesn’t matter.

 

[keydiver]

400 miles of range in an EV version of the Escalade coming in 2021. How big of a battery pack to push that huge turd 400 miles? Does LG have that many to spare? At what price? I can hear Anton now: "Tesla Model X Killer!"
GM's Cadillac Escalade Takes Fight to Tesla With 400 Miles of Range

 

[kengchang]

400 miles of range in an EV version of the Escalade coming in 2021. How big of a battery pack to push that huge turd 400 miles? Does LG have that many to spare? At what price? I can hear Anton now: "Tesla Model X Killer!"
GM's Cadillac Escalade Takes Fight to Tesla With 400 Miles of Range

Easily doable with 400 NEDC miles

 

[StealthP3D]

Be ironic if the paint from GF3 vehicles is better than US versions due to China environmental rules not being as strict as California.
Would this be a negative or a positive for Tesla?
How would this be reported in the media?

It's a myth that CA environmental rules require inferior paint. Just because a paint has lots of toxic VOC's doesn't mean it can be a better paint. Many unregulated paint shops use the same low VOC paint because it's superior in most ways. Paint chemistry has come a long way since the emissions were regulated.

 

[StealthP3D]

400 miles of range in an EV version of the Escalade coming in 2021. How big of a battery pack to push that huge turd 400 miles? Does LG have that many to spare? At what price? I can hear Anton now: "Tesla Model X Killer!"
GM's Cadillac Escalade Takes Fight to Tesla With 400 Miles of Range

If you are not starting to get the impression that these stories of great EV's just around are just another way for ICE manufacturers to stall and delay the transition to EV's, you haven't been paying attention. Remember the Jaguar iPace was supposed to be a "Tesla killer" and that Jaguar (and their contract manufacturer) know how to pump out cars at high volume?

Have you looked at iPace production volume? They never ramped up. I still haven't seen one on the road. These cars are just for show and to stall. An Escalade would need 200kWh's of batteries to achieve that. Where are they going to get them? This will never reach large scale production. Ford's Mustang-inspired cross-over stands a better chance but it will not be hitting the Market in 2020 and its range will not be anything to write home about. I'm looking for it to be produced in very small numbers by 2022. Maybe.

 

[CorneliusXX]

...in addition, Tesla's really quite bad at selling used Teslas, to the point where private party purchases are preferred by the informed used Tesla buyer. Specifically, buying a used Tesla from Tesla is too much of a "pig in a poke" operation with insufficient opportunities to examine the car. This essentially exerts a downward pressure on what *Tesla* can charge for a used Tesla -- they can charge less than a private seller because they haven't got the procedures set up for buyers to examine the car, so they get a "no examination" discount price.

Akerlof strikes again.

 

[CorneliusXX]

OT



EU politicians are not required to have super human powers. I don't hold not reaching an EU-UK agreement against her.

Agreed, especially when there is an insane amount of politics around the issue. Crazies in the UK forcing their government to be inflexible, the EU needing a hard line to ensure others don't leave, centuries of political history around Scotland and Wales. Potential upsides to individual EU countries if they can take chunks of London's financial industry, etc, etc.

I can't think of a more intractable problem.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I hope you are right but I fear your confidence in her and her team might be misplaced. If so, this has direct relevance to Tesla stockholders. Weyand (and others) were happy to further politicize the Brexit talks "pour encourager les autres" that may consider also dropping out the EU in the future, as opposed to a good faith negotiation with a military ally and major economic partner. In short, to ensure there was economic pain for the UK in leaving the political project, whether this was necessary or not.

“We should be in the best negotiating position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship. They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. The UK wants a lot more from the future relationship, so the EU retains its leverage.”​

Whatever your view on the rights and wrongs of Brexit and the negotiating stances of both sides (and there is merit to the Commission’s stance if you support its goal of integration, expansion and federalism), the world and Tesla stockholders are in for a shock if Weyand and her colleagues adopt a similar negotiating stance in trade talks with Trump's White House, rather than making a genuine effort to reduce trade barriers for mutual beneficial interest.

Noting the personalities on both sides of the negotiation, my personal base case remains a period of US punishment tariffs on European autos with counterveiling tariffs form the EU. Let’s hope I’m wrong!

Trump only respects power. If the EU concedes he will just go back for more. If it were me I'd just stall negotiations until the net president is in.

 

[kakamora]

Regarding price reductions ... Makes no sense to cite lack of demand as the driver, given that Tesla just announced their order book is increasing and that some major territories don't even have access to all models as of yet. My take is that Testa have reduced their operating and manufacturing costs such that they can pass these savings on to the customer - this has always been the modus operandi. They're not in business to generate huge profits, they're in business to remove dependence on fossil-fuels - the more cars they can sell to a wider demographic, the better.

It is also likely linked, as other have said, to the increase in production as hinted by the parts supplier order increase and Jerome's email. I think the Q2ER will be very interesting indeed.

For S/X, I suspect with the previous price reductions, the LR and P models became too compelling and osbourned the SR, furthermore, some looking at the SR perhaps went for an P3D instead at a lower price, so maybe the demand fo this variant wasn't there.

We also heard about some major improvements in S/X production, so perhaps this has decreased the manufacturing costs to allow them to cut prices and keep margins.

I see it as incredibly bullish.

Fact: the company wants to keep driving down price to increase addressable market.

Hypothesis: therefore needs to drive down costs- it can’t do that by itself. It need to push suppliers as well. If they show massive profits along the way by not passing on cost savings to consumers- it compromises their ability to keep the pressure on suppliers.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Its kind of an empty bill - because there is no funding provided. They want ARB to figure out the funding from existing sources and make all the rules.

Sounds like they may reduce the rebate by the amount of Fed tax rebate. This will directly benefit Tesla (and GM).

I don't think this is an empty bill at all. It is forcing CARB to develop a firm funding plan for the program. As Neroden says below, this should give them the authority to enact the plan and will likely require them to prioritise the EV incentive in their budget.

It seems fairly obvious how they intend the $16.5bn (to 2030) to be funded - with GHG credit Cap and Trade proceeds (CARB has collected c.$10bn through this since 2013, which go into the GGRF fund). It will authorise the treasurer to securitise future cap and trade proceeds which should significantly increase the near term funds raised in GGRF. It will also likely require prioritisation of the EV incentive within the use of GGRF funds. It may also require an increase in the minimum price for cap and trade (which will also be good for Tesla and the planet and makes fossil fuels more expensive) which will raise the annual GGRF funds raised.

I don't know how it's done in California, but in New York, it's actually pretty common to pass laws which give the governor or a board controlled by the governor vast discretion while saying "fund this", and such things do get funded, though not by specific appropriation provisions. I know this is not how it works at the federal level, with the exception of the corrupt money pit which is the Department of Defense.

 

[Todd Burch]

400 miles of range in an EV version of the Escalade coming in 2021. How big of a battery pack to push that huge turd 400 miles? Does LG have that many to spare? At what price? I can hear Anton now: "Tesla Model X Killer!"
GM's Cadillac Escalade Takes Fight to Tesla With 400 Miles of Range

Just wait until they have one of their engineers ACTUALLY do the calculation on that...

 

[Fact Checking]

OT fuel for launch systems,

Actually, it's not about the budget, SpaceX is using methane because CH4 is the densest molecular storage of hydrogen (!). This allows a reusable launch system with the best mass ratio. (Liquid hydrogen tanks are too large, much of what you win in efficiency you lose in tank mass and drag.)

New Shepard is oxygen-hydrogen, too.

New Sheppard is a research prototype that cannot even reach orbit and have orbital re-entry heating of its airframe, nor is it exposed to the problems of long term (read: more than a few hours long) liquid hydrogen storage. It's basically a 'hopper' prototype.

No it’s better “some” things considered. Blue Origin is using methane for the first stage of their New Glenn, but the upper stage uses oxygen-hydrogen which tends to be superior for upper stage performance.

New Glenn's upper stage is not reusable - see the highlighted part of my comment. If their upper stage was reusable I strongly suspect they'd be using methane too.

Hydrogen is vile stuff: it's a colorless, odorless gas which burns with invisible flames that emit ultraviolet radiation:

Liquid hydrogen also effectively cannot be long term stored in anything safely: hydrogen permeation and embrittlement is never a question of "if" but "when".

Fortunately hydrogen is on the way out, both in the form of Tesla Killer "hydrogen fuel cell cars":

Hydrogen Fueling Station Explosion Halts Fuel Cell Car Sales by Toyota, Hyundai

Hydrogen is also out as the primary choice for rocket fuel in reusable launch systems.