Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Only about 16% of pick up truck owners are women.
Pickup Truck Owner Demographics: F150, Silverado, Sierra, Ram, Tundra

Most pick up owners never tow or go off road. The facts are that for the vast majority of owners it's just a cultural signifier, a living country music song. I don't see EV trucks changing that much myself, especially as Tesla owners skew heavily male as well.

Side note, that Ford commercial is a joke. World record for a single man pulling train cars is almost half of what the truck pulled.

I think the change for EV trucks is that every gym guy will want one as the cultural signifier will change towards active adventurer. Rivian has really nailed their target market IMO.

 

[anthonyj]

Anyone see Elon’s new name on Twitter? ln(e)

I think that means breakeven but I failed math in college lol

 

[ZachF]

Everyone is worried how truck folks are gonna perceive electric pickups, but I want to see the reaction of my wine tasting, khaki wearing, Python coding, turtleneck adoring Silicon Valley brethren when I pull in to downtown Palo Alto taking up 2 car spaces in my quiet, tree hugging, sun loving, all electric Tesla Pickup truck.

Their brains will explode from the incongruity.

I just want to watch it pull brodozers literally in half.

 

[Thekiwi]

Thinking more about this new casting machine and Elon and Jerome's comments, I think there is a very high probability V1 of this machine will be used for initial Model Y production.

Evidence:

• The patent filed 18 months ago is for a massive flexible casting machine which could make a car body from 1 - 6 castings. Grohmann has a track record of building new equipment much faster than this with the emergency battery module machine development, production and installation cycle only taking months in 2017/18.
• Elon says Model Y will initially be built from 2 aluminium castings and 2 joiners, down from 70 steel and aluminium parts and weldings for Model 3 (This sounds very much like V1 of the new machine). He says this will move to a single casting in the future (sounds like V2 of the new machine)
• In March Jerome said Grohmann is currently building a massive new modular machine. "He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that." This sounds very much like the casting machine and if it was already being built in March it should be ready for Model Y.
• In the ride the lightning podcast "Musk told McCaffrey that the longest lead time items for the Model Y are the stamping dies for the exterior body panels, so those were the highest priority items to get nailed down." Notice he specifically says exterior body panels, suggesting there may be no stamping equipment required for all body panels. Presumably some exterior panels will be manufactured separately from the 2 casting piece unibody frame.

Some consequences of this new machine if it is used for Model Y:

• Much less welding robots. Reduces capex and reduces dependence on external manufacturing equipment suppliers (FANUC and KUKA).
• Much less stamping machines. Reduces capex and reduces lead times for new factories.
• Significantly less space required for future car manufacturing lines.
• Modular design for body production allows easier matching to target production levels and less lumpy capex.
• This new process will add risk to the Model Y ramp.
• The Model Y will likely move to an aluminium body, potentially reducing weight.
• Tesla's castings base is in Lathrop where it has recently built a huge new building. There is a chance that a significant part of the Y production could take place at Lathrop with new Grohmann machines. The 2 castings will then be delivered to Fremont. This will significantly reduce space required for Model Y at Fremont.
• This new body design will probably blow Sandy Munro's mind.

The new wiring design patent seems much less likely to be used for Model Y. Does anyone recall Elon talking about less wiring after changing his mind about building Y on a new platform in August 2017? I think this new wiring will more likely be introduced with the Pickup.

Stamping bodies somewhere other than Fremont sounds like a somewhat inefficient process if the company has to load full car bodies into trucks, transport by truck, unload from truck ~1000 Y car bodies daily.

 

[willow_hiller]

Anyone see Elon’s new name on Twitter? ln(e)

I think that means breakeven but I failed math in college lol

Spot on. The natural log of e is 1. But man the SEC would have a field-day if Elon was really floating earnings hints early on Twitter.

 

[Cobbler]

Spot on. The natural log of e is 1. But man the SEC would have a field-day if Elon was really floating earnings hints early on Twitter.

Headline: $TSLA rises 1$ after earnings release

 

[phigment]

Spot on. The natural log of e is 1. But man the SEC would have a field-day if Elon was really floating earnings hints early on Twitter.

Or it's just a pun on his name. ln ("pronounced lawn") of e -> e ln -> elon

 

[ZachF]

Stamping bodies somewhere other than Fremont sounds like a somewhat inefficient process if the company has to load full car bodies into trucks, transport by truck, unload from truck ~1000 Y car bodies daily.

Don't they already have to do that anyway for the skateboards since they're made at GF1?

 

[capster]

...

The new wiring design patent seems much less likely to be used for Model Y. Does anyone recall Elon talking about less wiring after changing his mind about building Y on a new platform in August 2017? I think this new wiring will more likely be introduced with the Pickup.

Yes I recall, but think that a less wire architecture might be a different thing.

Isn’t the patent enabling a new and easier to automate means to install wiring? What’s being wired and the amount of wiring could remain about the same while the assemblies and assembly methods changed.

I would guess they would start using this as soon as they could, potentially even in the 3.

Or am I missing something here?

 

[Nocturnal]

One of the Champagne farmers I visited commented on my Tesla that I should have gotten there with a diesel instead, since that causes global warming, which would improve his crops. I couldn’t tell if he was serious or joking.

The Champagne region is one of the most northern wine regions in Europe. Interestingly, Belgium, which is even more northern, is producing more and more (good) wine the last few years, due to global warming.

I think many forget that the planet is warming, but not evenly and it comes with increased volatility of weather which is not so great for consistent production of wine grapes. Record lows/highs/droughts/floods.

Everyone is worried how truck folks are gonna perceive electric pickups, but I want to see the reaction of my wine tasting, khaki wearing, Python coding, turtleneck adoring Silicon Valley brethren when I pull in to downtown Palo Alto taking up 2 car spaces in my quiet, tree hugging, sun loving, all electric Tesla Pickup truck.

Their brains will explode from the incongruity.

The hard core necks (with the crazy impractical lifts and giant mud tires that cost more than their mortgage) won't budge but there is a huge market of Suburban Dad types that don't really need a truck but like feeling rugged that will definitely consider the gas savings.

Interestingly, French wines are higher in alcohol content compared to the past based on the warmer weather, perhaps longer growing season too, leading to more sugar in the grapes, ergo, more alcohol after fermentation.

At least this is what I was told by a person who I consider quite an expert on the matter.

It depends. Yeast tends to consume sugar up to a certain ABV at which point that particular strain begins to die off/go dormant. If that particular strain is able to survive in higher alcohol rich environments then a higher ABV will result, if not then it will just be a sweeter wine. Of course wine makers rarely just let nature take it's course so they often add something like potassium sorbate to stop fermentation at a certain point.

I dabble in home wine/beer making. ​

​

 

[CorneliusXX]

Anyone see Elon’s new name on Twitter? ln(e)

I think that means breakeven but I failed math in college lol

So that's why you work for Morgan Stanley!

 

[Thekiwi]

Don't they already have to do that anyway for the skateboards since their made at GF1?

I’m assuming one can fit a lot more of the skateboards in one truckload than you can car bodies, and so there would be significantly less labour costs on a per unit basis for transport/handling operations. I’m sure if they had the choice they would rather have all production at one location, just like Shanghai will be when completed.

 

[Nocturnal]

Another couple days like this and I'm back in the black with TSLA. Feels great.

 

[AlexS]

Anyone see Elon’s new name on Twitter? ln(e)

I think that means breakeven but I failed math in college lol

ln(e) = 1 I don't think it is linked anyhow to TSLA

 

[Cobbler]

ln(e) = 1 I don't think it is linked anyhow to TSLA

Exactly

 

[Mokuzai]

So my ER wager on Aug 2nd $280 calls are up about 40% now...cash out now and watch it skyrocket or let it ride and watch it go to zero?

 

[hobbes]

Spot on. The natural log of e is 1. But man the SEC would have a field-day if Elon was really floating earnings hints early on Twitter.

Missing piece - how is 1 connected to breakeven? Zero would make more sense here iMHO.

 

[T@oo]

1 is a black zero.

 

[MissAutobahn]

Bordeaux vines have for some time a climate problem. Unfortunately they aren't anymore what they used to be.

They will start a new viniculture with those temperatures: mulled wine

 

[EVMeister]

Guys, take the tinfoil hats off and wait an hour or so. Go back to discussing OT drivel?