Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Wasted opportunity to ask this question:

Since cell supply is no longer a constraint (or soon to no longer be a constraint), does this mean we can expect Tesla truck, semi, Roadster 2 etc sooner rather than later?

 

[KSilver2000]

Sure! But on the other hand...

I wasn't really expecting profit until they hit the right volume per week, and the current projections actually seem to make sense. Previously all of his projections seemed too optimistic to me. So I'm glad that they start to seem realistic...

Deliveries need to be almost 8k/wk average starting from few weeks ago to the end of this year just to reach the projected lower end 360k mark for 2019. They need to pull all the stops to produce so much and actually deliver so much to meet that target, it's going to be rough. And with less tax credits than last year, I would expect Tesla to continue it's price drops over time and deep discounts on end-of-quarter inventory. This will hurt their bottom line again.

Assuming they produce and deliver 200k from July to December, then they need to average 15,000/wk production from Jan 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020 to reach the projected 500k mark. This seems unattainable IMO.

 

[Ratanpara]

Long term shareholders, Ok competition will like to introduce lot of EV, is any body out there has plan how to get to terra watts level of batteries production?

 

[KarenRei]

can be done with 100-105k deliveries, assuming S/X ASP move up slightly (all Ravens now?) and 3 ASP only suffers a small drop to $48-$49k while maintaining margin.

Presuming no one-off/restructuring charges.

That all sounds IMHO pretty likely -

• Production grew during the course of Q2, so even if they just hold steady in Q3, they should be able to meet the production side
• In Europe there's already plenty of people with delivery guidance for "September", and presumably China's the same way. Even if they don't open up any new markets this quarter. Q3 orders overall outpacing Q2 according to the call.
• Tesla can't keep moving pre-Raven inventory forever. Ravens are currently like unicorns in Europe, for example. Only just recently did Bjørn Nyland manage to get his hands on one for a review.
• Steady or a small ASP drop is guidance. Entry price point on Model 3 dropped by less than $1k, while the larger changes are just pushing upsell. Tesla's production costs fall every quarter (and indeed per-unit depreciation falls automatically with volume)

 

[RobStark]

I think he was just trying to get rid of some of the FUD about how 'falling demand' for S and X is going to kill the company, by explaining that in a few years time they will be only 5% of sales (at 80-100 k per year).

But maybe 10% of profits.

That is why VW still makes A8s and 911s.

On top of the halo effect it has on Jettas,A1s, and Macans.

 

[LJS22]

Do you think he's baking in FSD $$$ opportunity to his "profit" forecasts?
If so, lots riding on FSD.

Yea he’s waging everything on it. He said most opted to not get FSD with their purchase of their vehicle and therefore that opens up an opportunity to have many potential customers soon paying for FSD.

$6k is a big price for an incomplete feature currently. Seems like Tesla owners are opting to not join in on the long term vision. Probably the most frustrating thing going on for Musk currently

 

[Thekiwi]

At current volumes though it's simply still not enough to deliver a consistent profit. They had 25%~ in Q3-Q4.

they were only shipping high margin LR & performance models last year - nobody expected that to continue long term. in the first 6 months of Y shipments you will likely see a bounce back into the mid 20% range as initially they will be all LR/performance shipments before slowly shifting the mix down again.

 

[Don TLR]

That's why my windshield is still being manufactured - 10 days out to get one, hopefully.
This is Arizona!

Don't let Reliable Glass near your car,, fyi
I like the story about a part made in China and sent around the world, then back to China,, at least they are aware of the absurdity of this..

 

[EVNow]

Some interesting preliminary numbers.

S+X leased vehicles : 10.3%

3 leased vehicles : 5.6%
Non-Lease Margin (calc) : 17.7%
Lease Margin (calc) : 49%

ASP 3 : 50,000
ASP S+X (calc) : 95,175 (Not 73,000 like I calculated earlier, forgetting to exclude leases) !!!

ps : Tesla has released exact number of vehicles that are under leasing. I think this is a first.​

 

[sundaymorning]

Ouch! They lost J.B. :-( He'll still give advice, but he's no longer handling day-to-day things.

NOW the stock has a reason to drop.

...OK, JB is "on call", basically. I think he got tired of the punishing pace and wanted to do something else, but if they need his advice, he'll always answer. Drew is taking over the day-to-day.

This was to be expected with Maxwell clearly being able to take us to the next level, even without JB.

 

[dondy]

JB is (was?) BMS guy. All his patents are there. All talks he made are about BMS.
He has nothing to do with the batteries. Apparently Tesla slows down on BMS development and focuses on new types of cells.
Beside possible burnout (see Tom Mueller) his reason for retirement can be a "personal" project, like it was the case with Jerome.

 

[KSilver2000]

No. My advice does not depend upon the stock. If your strategy is actually working, it will, until it doesn't.

Until that point is realized, I'll happily continue paying taxes on the short term gains. Then, like you said, my trading strategy may change.

 

[Singuy]

Yea he’s waging everything on it. He said most opted to not get FSD with their purchase of their vehicle and therefore that opens up an opportunity to have many potential customers soon paying for FSD.

$6k is a big price for an incomplete feature currently. Seems like Tesla owners are opting to not join in on the long term vision. Probably the most frustrating thing going on for Musk currently

Enhanced summon in Aug probably problem Q4. Probably realizing a boat load of revenue right there.

 

[kengchang]

JB is (was?) BMS guy. All his patents are there. All talks he made are about BMS.
He has nothing to do with the batteries. Apparently Tesla slows down on BMS development and focuses on new types of cells.
Beside possible burnout (see Tom Mueller) his reason for retirement can be a "personal" project, like it was the case with Jerome.

You mean Deepak? Jerome is pretty much the COO.

 

[lascavarian]

It sounded to me like the Y and something else (Truck?) or Model 3 will be driving the future of Tesla manufacturing followed by S & X in diminishing numbers. Maybe it is about the most efficient platform for FSD to manifest.

A LOT of battery capacity is in play. This makes the plans of other EV manufacturers seem seriously flawed. How will they be able to compete on battery costs when Tesla has such a massive scale advantage. EM keeps converting present success into competitive pressure and extending the Tesla lead.

Imagine the engineering opportunities that are coming with such a road map.

There was a quip about a "couple other opportunities" mentioned (approximately). So much happening...

 

[madodel]

IMHO:

People need to stop asking about service, and ask about communications.

People say service when they often mean communications.

Exactly. When I've actually had service it was excellent. RIght now it is being able to talk to anyone about what service is needed that is the problem. Now apparently the chat feature that the service phone message directs everyone to is only available randomly. It is Catch22 at the moment. That is not good. At least Neroden figured out a way to talk to someone by calling Road Service and getting transferred.

 

[neroden]

OT

North Dakota omw View attachment 433805

Yeah, I know it's been on the plans forever. Some of those permits have been open for a couple of years without groundbreaking.

 

[Thekiwi]

That all sounds IMHO pretty likely -

• Production grew during the course of Q2, so even if they just hold steady in Q3, they should be able to meet the production side
• In Europe there's already plenty of people with delivery guidance for "September", and presumably China's the same way. Even if they don't open up any new markets this quarter. Q3 orders overall outpacing Q2 according to the call.
• Tesla can't keep moving pre-Raven inventory forever. Ravens are currently like unicorns in Europe, for example. Only just recently did Bjørn Nyland manage to get his hands on one for a review.
• Steady or a small ASP drop is guidance. Entry price point on Model 3 dropped by less than $1k, while the larger changes are just pushing upsell. Tesla's production costs fall every quarter (and indeed per-unit depreciation falls automatically with volume)

generally agree with this - also new RHD markets / england should be nice source of high trim models to counter ASP drop in established markets.

(I was amazed ASP was still $50K given SR+ popularity but I always forget to add FSD sales which boosts ASP considerably.)

 

[neroden]

Looks like S/X demand is not expected to recover soon - Musk is forecasting maybe 1500/week (in rough terms) by the end of the year.

Notice that that's still higher than the Q2 production rate, and on the order of 18K-19K/quarter.

 

[ReflexFunds]

BMW announces plans to double US battery capacity to 30k hybrid batteries per year or likely c.0.3 GWh per year - Gets a front page
Reuters article.

Tesla announces it has plans for 2TWh of battery cell supply - Not mentioned. Instead 4 reuters articles on how Tesla misses quarterly EPS consensus (which was due to lower regulatory credit sales and FX loses)