Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singer3000]

Looks like China is now supporting the yuan a bit and US futures have reversed higher:
China sets its yuan midpoint at stronger than 7 per dollar

Sure but so far today that mid-point hasn't been supported. If you ask me, they've decided to maintain the $3tr FX reserves above all else and as others have pointed out, this movement relative to the USD helps soften the blow of the tariffs.

A bunch of you will have a better handle than me on Trump but I doubt he'll want this resolved until at least this time next year, so it stays fresh in the minds of his base that he went toe to toe with China to protect their jobs. Voters tend to have short memories when it comes to rewarding incumbents and he'll be well aware of this. Meanwhile, looks to me like Xi has very little wiggle room to back down either, the civil disturbances in Hong Kong have made it 10x harder for him to willingly advertise himself as conciliatory.

So either you think this matters enough that before long it tips the global economy over, or else easy money everywhere will still rule the day and we're about to go through nothing more than a blip to stock prices. If you think you know the answer to that then you're lying to yourself. Invest only what you can afford to lock up for the long term and all should stay sunny.

 

[Fact Checking]

A bunch of you will have a better handle than me on Trump but I doubt he'll want this resolved until at least this time next year, so it stays fresh in the minds of his base that he went toe to toe with China to protect their jobs.

Also note, through the example of Tesla, what the natural response of manufacturing companies is to the Trump tariffs: building a new factory in China.

By Trump forcing out manufacturers and potentially pushing the U.S. into a recession voters might also not fully appreciate his job-protection actions, they will be too busy trying to find a new job.

 

[Buckminster]

TSLA P/S ratio now 1.6 (4.3 one yr ago), versus:

S&P - 1.8
AAPL - 3.5
AMZN - 3.5

The investors interested in P/S are perhaps comparing to Ford at 0.23....

 

[schonelucht]

"Based on this observation, and our battery demand forecast, we expect the price of an average battery pack to be around $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030."​

At the rate old posters are disappearing, I’ll soon be the only one left who remembers when it was common ‘knowledge’ that TSLA was already below $100/kWh and would soon be below that on the pack level once the gigafactory got going.

 

[Singuy]

A bunch of you will have a better handle than me on Trump but I doubt he'll want this resolved until at least this time next year, so it stays fresh in the minds of his base that he went toe to toe with China to protect their jobs. Voters tend to have short memories when it comes to rewarding incumbents and he'll be well aware of this. Meanwhile, looks to me like Xi has very little wiggle room to back down either, the civil disturbances in Hong Kong have made it 10x harder for him to willingly advertise himself as conciliatory.

So either you think this matters enough that before long it tips the global economy over, or else easy money everywhere will still rule the day and we're about to go through nothing more than a blip to stock prices. If you think you know the answer to that then you're lying to yourself. Invest only what you can afford to lock up for the long term and all should stay sunny.

Yeah a bunch of his supporters are old baby boomers @ retirement age. Him on people's index funds is not really a good look for another year.

 

[Fact Checking]

At the rate old posters are disappearing, I’ll soon be the only one left who remembers when it was common ‘knowledge’ that TSLA was already below $100/kWh and would soon be below that on the pack level once the gigafactory got going.

At the rate commodities prices are dropping, Tesla might already be at around $100 at the cell level, and with the new Grohmann machine and the simpler SR pack design at around $120 on the pack level.

I'm wondering which past predictions you consider a failure.

 

[Singer3000]

Also note, through the example of Tesla, what the natural response of manufacturing companies is to the Trump tariffs: building a new factory in China.

By Trump forcing out manufacturers and potentially pushing the U.S. into a recession voters might also not fully appreciate his job-protection actions, they will be too busy trying to find a new job.

I am no Trump fan but I think this is a complete mischaracterisation. Musk has been on record for a long time saying that complex / large consumer goods should be produced geographically close to where they are consumed. None of us know but one could argue that the heated trade climate played at least some part in allowing Tesla to launch a production business from its Chinese WFOE, rather than through a JV. Without a doubt this will lead to more/better quality jobs in the US than if the Chinese EV market was tied up entirely by local companies.

 

[Fact Checking]

Listening to some GOP members, seems like they’re determined to keep going at it.

It isn't only the GOP:

"Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported designating China a currency manipulator.

That's rather naive, the Democratic leadership knows that if the U.S. economy is tanking then most voters are going to be blaming the party in power: Republicans.

So Schumer's move is more of the "nice hole you've got there Team Trump, please keep digging!" kind, not genuine support...

 

[Fact Checking]

I am no Trump fan but I think this is a complete mischaracterisation. Musk has been on record for a long time saying that complex / large consumer goods should be produced geographically close to where they are consumed. None of us know but one could argue that the heated trade climate played at least some part in allowing Tesla to launch a production business from its Chinese WFOE, rather than through a JV. Without a doubt this will lead to more/better quality jobs in the US than if the Chinese EV market was tied up entirely by local companies.

Elon indicated, for a long time, that the European Gigafactory was probably the next planned one, which is logical:

• Europe is Tesla's second largest market,
• Shipping times from Fremont to Europe are longer and more expensive (Panama tax) than shipping to China.

But last year, right after the tariff war started, Tesla initiated the Shanghai Gigafactory as an almost emergency move, to isolate itself from tariffs that rose to 65%. Tesla cited tariffs as one of the biggest justifications in various filings.

To add insult to injury, the Trump administration also refused Tesla's request for a tariff exemption.

So yeah, it could hardly be any more clear-cut: GF3 is in response to the tariff war. The only reason Tesla isn't saying this more explicitly is to not antagonize the unpredictable, impulsive and vindictive Trump administration.

 

[schonelucht]

At the rate commodities prices are dropping, Tesla might already be at around $100 at the cell level, and with the new Grohmann machine and the simpler SR pack at around $120 on the pack level.

My point was not that it’s never going to happen.

I'm wondering which past predictions you consider a failure.

I am not sure you want me to answer this question

 

[Singer3000]

Elon indicated, for a long time, that the European Gigafactory was probably the next planned one, which is logical:

• Europe is Tesla's second largest market,
• Shipping times from Fremont to Europe are longer and more expensive (Panama tax) than shipping to China.

But last year, right after the tariff war started, Tesla initiated the Shanghai Gigafactory as an almost emergency move, to isolate itself from tariffs that rose to 65%. Tesla cited tariffs as one of the biggest justifications in various filings.

To add insult to injury, the Trump administration also refused Tesla's request for a tariff exemption.

So yeah, it could hardly be any more clear-cut: GF3 is in response to the tariff war. The only reason Tesla isn't saying this more explicitly is to not antagonize the unpredictable, impulsive and vindictive Trump administration.

Sure but that doesn’t make much difference to American workers. It just means that GF3 and GF4 were reversed. The tariffs no doubt became the major decider in which came first. But your first message seemed to be that Tesla is only building an offshore Gigafactory because of Trump’s tariff policies.

Anyway we are where we are. It’s the threat of a post election US-EU tariff war that has me troubled but another quarter passes with only casual references to GF4.

 

[EVNow]

Also note, through the example of Tesla, what the natural response of manufacturing companies is to the Trump tariffs: building a new factory in China.

By Trump forcing out manufacturers and potentially pushing the U.S. into a recession voters might also not fully appreciate his job-protection actions, they will be too busy trying to find a new job.

But his concern is not exports. It’s imports he wants to displace with local manufacturing. He thinks just impose some tariff and manufacturing jobs will come back and turn rust belt into steel belt.

 

[kengchang]

But his concern is not exports. It’s imports he wants to displace with local manufacturing. He thinks just impose some tariff and manufacturing jobs will come back and turn rust belt into steel belt.

It just went to cheaper country in Southeast Asia lol

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA P/S ratio now 1.6 (4.3 one yr ago), versus:

S&P - 1.8
AAPL - 3.5
AMZN - 3.5

The investors interested in P/S are perhaps comparing to Ford at 0.23....

Yeah, but Ford has a Debt/EBITDA ratio of 87,64, compared to Tesla at 9,23.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Also note, through the example of Tesla, what the natural response of manufacturing companies is to the Trump tariffs: building a new factory in China.

By Trump forcing out manufacturers and potentially pushing the U.S. into a recession voters might also not fully appreciate his job-protection actions, they will be too busy trying to find a new job.

Tesla would have done that anyway, the pure economics of cheap labour and reduced transport costs make it a no brainer even before the generous subsidies and tariff implications.

 

[Matias]

More than a couple of days. These egos are too big to give in. Unfortunately, for the US, Trump has the re-election to factor into how he wants to come out of all of this. But, regardless of the outcome, you can bet Trump will portray it as good deal making.

Isn't it good, that Trump needs to get some deal (which will of course be "fantastic"). The sooner the trade war is over, the better. Or do you mean, next elections are still too far away?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yesterday's bad case of the yips After-hrs seems not to be holding:

NASDAQ: TSLA
Aug. 6, 4:40 a.m. EDT
Pre-market 230.50 +2.18 (0.95%)​

 

[traxila]

Looking good so far. Plus 1.6% premarket again outpacing NASDAQ gains. Maybe have a big day.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Another day, another few pages of off topic and political nonsense.

 

[KarenRei]

Another day, another few pages of off topic and political nonsense.

Just you wait for my three-page diatribe about my lunch and about how Margaret Thatcher was a lizard.