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Stocks resumed their plummet after hours following this news that indicates our trade dictator wants to prolong the trade war of words.

MarketWatch - 7 minutes ago: Treasury Department declares China a currency manipulator
Funny thing is, supporting the currency is actual currency manipulation. So, before yesterday's action, you could say China was a currency manipulator. Now it is actually not - so, no wonder is labelled a manipulator now.

Question is - what will China do. If my earlier guess that China has game planned this is true - we'll soon find out.
 
I think the FCA C02 offset deal worth approx. €2B will quite handily cover the CAPEX for GF4/EU over the next 2 years.

Indeed, I see China financing expansion in China, while N. American operations funding the new factory that will be required for Tesla Pickup, Semi, and Roadster.

I think separation of growth and CapEx by continent is a sound business strategy, and also most likely the reason the Tesla does not waste money purchasing currency hedges, because they intend to largely spend their Euros in the EU, their Yuan in China, and their USD in America. Only the technology will cross the border in the form of knowledge and experience (IP), but there's still no tax on those movements... :p

Cheers!

Would be great if FCA could pay Tesla in the form of an existing European car factory rather than cash.
 
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An interesting chart for those inclined in reading books. Google Book's ngram viewer on climate change, global warming, and tesla. Wonder how this'll look 20 years from now?

Screen Shot 2019-08-05 at 7.23.10 PM.png
 
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It seems Debord doesn't have a clue about what disruption really means, the tech behind EVs or the difference in business models, cultures and incentives between Tesla and the traditional auto industry.

This idiotic article was partly the fault of Clayton Christensen arbitrarily defining disruption as only possible if you sell low end products, and for some reason people taking his word as gospel.
The nature of technology experience curves means it generally makes sense to introduce a new technology at the high end of the market first. This technology is better value for money relative to the existing products in this market segment, so it disrupts this segment of the market. As experience curves drive production costs down the new technology gradually disrupts lower and lower price segments of the market until it has disrupted the entire market.

In addition to being stupid, the article is also factually inaccurate such as claiming "Tesla's cars sell for between $50,000-100,000."

Back in 2013, Ben Thompson made the case that disruption theory often doesn’t play out as Christensen expected in consumer markets, due to the difference in purchase decision making between consumers and businesses.

Here is the relevant article: What Clayton Christensen Got Wrong
 
Game of Chicken going on b/w US/China. I think bloodbath will continue next couple of days ..
S&P etc haven't even hit their 200MA so far.

More than a couple of days. These egos are too big to give in. Unfortunately, for the US, Trump has the re-election to factor into how he wants to come out of all of this. But, regardless of the outcome, you can bet Trump will portray it as good deal making.


I think tariffs are in % not fixed $ amount.

Devaluing your currency makes your people poorer. Not genius.

Chinese's people's net worth declined ~1.6% yesterday.

Encourages more hording of Dollars,Euros, and Yen.

Putting more downward pressure on the Yuan. Not genius.

China's agricultural imports amount to 10% of the global agricultural trade.

CCP is making the food every Chinese needs more expensive.

You make it sound so simplistic and one-sided. There’s so much more pros and cons to both sides.
 
Here's a chart of the Chinese Yuan value change over the past 24 hours:
View attachment 438016
We went from .1441 yuan to .1418 yuan in relation to the dollar.
In other words, a yuan yesterday was worth 14.41 cents in U.S currency and now it is worth 14.18 cents.
My arithmetic shows about a 1.6% change
If I made an error please point it out. If this small change is all that we see, then Tesla should be about to do ok with this headwind until the Shanghai factory is operational.

As others have pointed out, it's not the size of the move but the crossing of the psychologically important barrier of 7.0 USDCNY. This (and the $3tr in FX reserves) have been seen in certain circles as important indicators of national strength/pride that should not be breached. That the PBOC set the fixing at a level that allowed this rate to be breached, means that the national pride argument is no longer in play and one expects the yuan could now get considerably weaker.

Up to you whether you think this is because it's being manipulated down or rather that the natural force of economic gravity would actually set the rate beyond 8.0. I know what side I'm on. But either way, this (and the currency manipulator designation in response) is an escalation that means you're not going to get a speedy conclusion to the trade war.

Keep an eye on this too:
U.S. appeals court upholds ruling against Chinese banks in North Korea sanctions probe - Reuters

Sanctioning of any of these three banks would be a quite colossal step to take but I no longer think it's impossible given the mood music. You will no doubt recognize Shanghai Pudong Development Bank as having been reported as part of the syndicate for Tesla's China loan. In theory it could soon be illegal under the US Patriot Act for Tesla to accept further funds from that bank!

I'm as worried from a macro perspective now as at any point since the Eurozone crisis (especially when you throw Europe's mountain of problems into the mix). But I'm forcing myself to retain the discipline of not trying to second guess or time the market for investments that have a very long investment horizon. Cathie Wood's macro argument seems based more on hope than logic to me but it's too risky to be out for long and for her to be right. I made that mistake in 2012-4 and don't want to make it again!
 
Listening to some GOP members, seems like they’re determined to keep going at it.

It isn't only the GOP:

"Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported designating China a currency manipulator.

“China has been manipulating their currency long-before and since President Trump took office,” the New York politician said in a statement. “He should finally tell his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator. That’s all he needs to do to make it happen.”

From: US declares China a currency manipulator, says it's using yuan to gain 'unfair advantage' in trade
 
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Reactions: shootformoon
It isn't only the GOP:

"Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer supported designating China a currency manipulator.

“China has been manipulating their currency long-before and since President Trump took office,” the New York politician said in a statement. “He should finally tell his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator. That’s all he needs to do to make it happen.”

From: US declares China a currency manipulator, says it's using yuan to gain 'unfair advantage' in trade

My point is different from what you mentioned. I’m talking about people supporting Trump to keep doing what he’s doing. You can call China a currency manipulator and either be supportive or unsupportive of Trump’s stance.
 
For eg., if the exchange rate was 10 - and the product was priced at $100, so the exporter could make Yuan 100. If there is a 20% tariff, the exch rate now goes to 12 and to make that same 100 Yuan, exporter now prices at 100/12=$8.33, so that after 20% tariff the price to US importers is again $10.

You mean product was priced at $10... to make Yuan 100

Btw, who keeps the tariffs? US Government. So more money flows to government, not the importer. How is that good for the US economy?
 
As others have pointed out, it's not the size of the move but the crossing of the psychologically important barrier of 7.0 USDCNY. This (and the $3tr in FX reserves) have been seen in certain circles as important indicators of national strength/pride that should not be breached. That the PBOC set the fixing at a level that allowed this rate to be breached, means that the national pride argument is no longer in play and one expects the yuan could now get considerably weaker.

Up to you whether you think this is because it's being manipulated down or rather that the natural force of economic gravity would actually set the rate beyond 8.0. I know what side I'm on. But either way, this (and the currency manipulator designation in response) is an escalation that means you're not going to get a speedy conclusion to the trade war.

Keep an eye on this too:
U.S. appeals court upholds ruling against Chinese banks in North Korea sanctions probe - Reuters

Sanctioning of any of these three banks would be a quite colossal step to take but I no longer think it's impossible given the mood music. You will no doubt recognize Shanghai Pudong Development Bank as having been reported as part of the syndicate for Tesla's China loan. In theory it could soon be illegal under the US Patriot Act for Tesla to accept further funds from that bank!

I'm as worried from a macro perspective now as at any point since the Eurozone crisis (especially when you throw Europe's mountain of problems into the mix). But I'm forcing myself to retain the discipline of not trying to second guess or time the market for investments that have a very long investment horizon. Cathie Wood's macro argument seems based more on hope than logic to me but it's too risky to be out for long and for her to be right. I made that mistake in 2012-4 and don't want to make it again!

Looks like China is now supporting the yuan a bit and US futures have reversed higher:
China sets its yuan midpoint at stronger than 7 per dollar
 
Would be great if FCA could pay Tesla in the form of an existing European car factory rather than cash.

And let FCA dictate where Tesla's factory is located and the employee baggage that goes with it? No thanks.

The factory isn't the issue, it's the location (near transportation hubs and access to motivated and skilled workforce) and financial package that goes with it. Fremont NUMMI made sense back then, because Tesla needed a factory on the cheap. For GF1, Tesla chose Nevada and its pro-business economic policy over a site closer to Fremont.
 
You mean product was priced at $10... to make Yuan 100

Btw, who keeps the tariffs? US Government. So more money flows to government, not the importer. How is that good for the US economy?
Oh yes, it’s $10.

Well, the government could spend on productive things like education (or wasteful ones like defense). So, it can help the economy. But, that’s beside the point.
 
Not true. China still heavily manipulates the exchange rate.

What I wrote is exactly what happened: China reduced the level by which it intervenes in the value of its currency. Do words even have any meaning anymore??

Or, in Nobel Prize in Economics winner Paul Krugman's words:

Opinion | Trump’s China Shock

"Incidentally — or maybe it’s not so incidental — while there are many valid reasons to criticize Chinese policy, currency manipulation isn’t one of them. China was a major currency manipulator 7 or 8 years ago, but these days if anything it’s supporting its currency above the level it would be at if it were freely floating."

"And think for a minute about what would happen to a country with an unmanipulated currency, if one of its major export markets suddenly slapped major tariffs on many of its goods. You’d surely expect to see that country’s currency depreciate, just as Britain’s has with the prospect of lost market access due to Brexit."

[...]

"In other words, the Trump administration in its wisdom has managed to accuse the Chinese of the one economic crime of which they happen to be innocent."​

Krugman got the Nobel Prize for his work in international trade.

Currency manipulation is usually defined as the competitive devaluation of a country's currency by its central bank selling the currency, which currency selling gives an export oriented country an unfair trade advantage against competitors.

China's currency policy in the past 5 years was the opposite of that: they supported their currency by buying it, spending huge amounts of FX reserves doing so.

They just allow it to fluctuate in a 2% range now which makes it look more market driven. But it is still very tightly controlled through a variety of ways.

Until yesterday China controlled the exchange rate in an even tighter band as it artificially propped up its currency - as @Papafox's chart visualized it. The RMB started "floating" more freely as a result of the change in the peg: it strengthened a bit meanwhile, with the Chinese central bank neither buying nor selling the currency.

Getting money in and out of China can be quite the task.

Capital controls, just like taxation or tariffs, are a sovereign right. China has no obligation to follow neoliberal capital flow policies. Just like the U.S. is free to restrict trade via tariffs, China is free to impose capital controls - like many other countries.

JFYI, the Danish central bank controls the value of the Danish Krone in a 2.25% band too, to peg the DKK to the Euro:

Foreign-exchange-rate policy and ERM 2

"the krone can only fluctuate between 762.824 per 100 euro and 729.252 per 100 euro."​

Is Denmark "manipulating" their currency too?

Anyway, in what universe is China reducing the manipulation of their currency and allowing it to float more naturally is now an act of more currency manipulation?
 
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What I wrote is exactly what happened: China reduced the level by which it intervenes in the value of its currency. Do words even have any meaning anymore??

Or, in Nobel Prize in Economics winner Paul Krugman's words:

Opinion | Trump’s China Shock

"And think for a minute about what would happen to a country with an unmanipulated currency, if one of its major export markets suddenly slapped major tariffs on many of its goods. You’d surely expect to see that country’s currency depreciate, just as Britain’s has with the prospect of lost market access due to Brexit."

"In other words, the Trump administration in its wisdom has managed to accuse the Chinese of the one economic crime of which they happen to be innocent."​

Krugman got the Nobel Prize for his work in international trade.



Until yesterday China controlled the exchange rate in an even tighter band as it artificially propped up its currency - as @Papafox's chart visualized it. The RMB started "floating" as a result of the removal of the peg: it strengthened a bit meanwhile, with the Chinese central bank neither buying nor selling the currency.

The Danish central bank controls the value of the Danish Krone in an even tighter band, to couple it to the Euro. Is Denmark "manipulating" their currency?

Anyway, in what universe is China reducing the manipulation of their currency and allowing it to float more naturally is now an act of more currency manipulation??
In this man's universe
tenor (15).gif
 

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