Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

I'd be interested to know how SAY "verifies" shares.

You have to connect to your brokers.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Not that I personally know the answer, but I think this is one we could answer ourselves with a little investigation.

Heavy research has been done.
Both Google and local Chinese search engine.
No definitive answer found.
Good luck with your “investigation”

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Heavy research has been done.
Both Google and local Chinese search engine.
No definitive answer found.
Good luck with your “investigation”

The source is Canadian, but I don’t think that matters: Import Regulations in China

From reading that, it sounds like their tariffs apply only to actual imported goods, not those manufactured in China. It’s possible there are some other taxes involved, but the tariffs everyone refers to isn’t one of them.

This is supported, by the way, by additional reporting that most US auto manufacturers weren’t really impacted much by the tariffs since most of their cars are manufactured there.

 

[AZRI11]

I wonder why he was putin there?

His version of Elon's 007 Lotus

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

The source is Canadian, but I don’t think that matters: Import Regulations in China

From reading that, it sounds like their tariffs apply only to actual imported goods, not those manufactured in China. It’s possible there are some other taxes involved, but the tariffs everyone refers to isn’t one of them.

This is supported, by the way, by additional reporting that most US auto manufacturers weren’t really impacted much by the tariffs since most of their cars are manufactured there.

Fact of the matter is, I don’t have a clear answer on this, you did not show a conclusive one either. One explanation is the area where Gigafactory Shanghai is located in has not been categorized as “Free Trade Zone”.

Hope someone can prove me wrong, but officially Tesla has been silent on this front.

Of course I hope they can bypass tariffs and get the soon to wane out local subsidies, both great for my Model 3 and Y and every investor.

 

[Krugerrand]

Better have eyes in the back of your head.

 

[EVNow]

Better have eyes in the back of your head.

No joke. But that is to take care of a real cat - not a pussy cat.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Where are you getting gross margins on the 75D? I have trouble believing that the margins on the 75D are that high. There's only 25kWh difference of cells between a 75D and a 100D ($~4-5k), but the difference in price was a lot more than $4-5k, and that difference was pure profit. I have trouble believing that 75D margins were even double digits.

"Downgrading" people to a P3D probably greatly increases margins. It also leaves the remaining S/X line as very high margin.

I agree on the cost difference (I use c.$4k). An unoptioned 75D Model S would make $10.7k gross profit on my numbers ($13.2k cash profit -$2.5k deferred revenue) before GHG credits, but on average it would make an additional $10.2k gross profit on options. So that is $20.9k average gross profit per 75D Model S in Q4. After $1k price cut, Q1 would be at $19.9k.

A Model 3 LR PUP AWD P made $16k gross profit ($17.5k profit -$1.5k deferred revenue) unoptioned in Q4 on my model. Including average options and a Model S take rate for EAP would add $6.2k gross profit. So that is $22.2k average gross profit for a 3 P. After the $2k price cut Q1 would be c.$20k. I expect $4-6k cost savings for 3 this year so 3 P should make $24-26k gross profit on average by the end of 2019.

So i also agree switching customers from S 75D to 3 P should increase gross profit per car (by $4-6k). But you will also lose a lot of customers because some S75D would have wanted a larger sedan than the 3, and X75D buyers don't yet have a Y P to switch to.

This is my model for S in Q4:

 

[JRP3]

Worth reading:

I am one of 3,000 laid off by Tesla on January 18th. One of approximately 7,000 layoffs in the last 9 months.

Were You Laid Off by Tesla? So Was I.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Lol

 

[Curt Renz]

In 1977 a Kodak engineer invented the digital camera. He was ordered not to tell anyone about it. In 1996 General Motors began producing electric cars. A few years later it recalled the cars or terminated their leases and destroyed them all. In both cases the companies did not want to cannibalize their core businesses. Both manufacturing behemoths eventually went bankrupt, although the government bailed out General Motors (at least for now.)

Here's a recently produced video about Kodak's road to ruin. The ICE automakers may have set themselves up for similar fates.

 

[RobStark]

Wall Street Journal via GM fan site

GM Has Production Capacity; Tesla Needs Production Expertise

 

[printf42]

Fact of the matter is, I don’t have a clear answer on this, you did not show a conclusive one either. One explanation is the area where Gigafactory Shanghai is located in has not been categorized as “Free Trade Zone”.

Hope someone can prove me wrong, but officially Tesla has been silent on this front.

Of course I hope they can bypass tariffs and get the soon to wane out local subsidies, both great for my Model 3 and Y and every investor.

Tesla has been silent because it’s a so obvious question and nobody has expected it to be asked.

Definitely they’re not going to be charged with the auto tariff.

China have different tariff rate for auto and auto parts. Once you start to do final assemble in China, you pay tariff on what ever parts you import and the assembled cars are not subject to tariffs.

Tariff rate varies for different auto parts but overall they are much much lower than assembled auto. More in line with other commodity.

If you import assembled auto sans wheels, it would not be as easy to categorize them as parts as it used to be, but painted body or unmarried drivetrain would be easy to pass as parts. Also, parts origins from China don’t need to be imported which can be a large portion if you want to.

 

[sundaymorning]

In 1977 a Kodak engineer invented the digital camera. He was ordered not to tell anyone about it. In 1996 General Motors began producing electric cars. A few years later it recalled the cars or terminated their leases and destroyed them all. In both cases the companies did not want to cannibalize their core businesses. Both manufacturing behemoths eventually went bankrupt, although the government bailed out General Motors (at least for now.)

Here's a recently produced video about Kodak's road to ruin. The ICE automakers may have set themselves up for similar fates.

Once EVs capture a larger portion of the mainstream market the legacy auto companies least able to adapt will go belly up first, opening more room for companies such as Tesla ready to capture a bigger portion of the market share. The faster “competition” heats up, the faster the least prepared will go belly up.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tesla has been silent because it’s a so obvious question and nobody has expected it to be asked.

Definitely they’re not going to be charged with the auto tariff.

China have different tariff rate for auto and auto parts. Once you start to do final assemble in China, you pay tariff on what ever parts you import and the assembled cars are not subject to tariffs.

Tariff rate varies for different auto parts but overall they are much much lower than assembled auto. More in line with other commodity.

If you import assembled auto sans wheels, it would not be as easy to categorize them as parts as it used to be, but painted body or unmarried drivetrain would be easy to pass as parts. Also, parts origins from China don’t need to be imported which can be a large portion if you want to.

I really really hope this ages well.
But you should realize China doesn’t play by the book, it makes its own rules.
I felt quite some love for Tesla from Chinese government so my hope is still high.
But until Tesla officially confirms this, nothing is settled.

 

[kyzhk]

Model 3 vs model S battery cell disassembly and internals (tesla 2170 vs 18650)

Around 52:00:

Battery cell energy density: from 240 to 247 Wh/kg (18650, 2170), 3% increase
pack level energy density: from 126.7 to 159.5, Wh/kg, 25.9% increase

Disappointing to see that the cell level energy density only saw little improvement so no big improvement in chemistry. But the pack level energy density improvement is impressive, possibly due to less cells being used and less dead weight in the structure and packing material?

When model s / x switch to 2170 we may see ~26% increase in range if Tesla keep vehicle weight constant. Alternatively Tesla could keep battery capacity constant reducing weight but I have no idea how much efficiency gain this translates to.

 

[anthonyj]

Model 3 vs model S battery cell disassembly and internals (tesla 2170 vs 18650)

Around 52:00:

Battery cell energy density: from 240 to 247 Wh/kg (18650, 2170), 3% increase
pack level energy density: from 126.7 to 159.5, Wh/kg, 25.9% increase

Disappointing to see that the cell level energy density only saw little improvement so no big improvement in chemistry. But the pack level energy density improvement is impressive, possibly due to less cells being used and less dead weight in the structure and packing material?

When model s / x switch to 2170 we may see ~26% increase in range if Tesla keep vehicle weight constant. Alternatively Tesla could keep battery capacity constant reducing weight but I have no idea how much efficiency gain this translates to.

335mi x 1.26 = 422mi range

Very funny Elon.

 

[gora321]

Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter

 

[CorneliusXX]

So last Friday Tesla issued a statement where they made it pretty clear that they cut the 75D to better differentiate the Model 3 and the Model S/X - i.e. probably not to add a new battery pack. Cutting production in half results from that, at least in the short term: the 75D was more than half of the demand.

But there's still a few conflicting things here, in particular Elon said the following:

"Are you moving away from battery sizing in a similar sense to how Model 3s are sold ie Long Range, Performance etc?": Yes​

"Is Model S & X being phased out over the next year or two?": Def not​

This has not happened yet - there's still "100D" and "P100D" models. Also, if the only option was the 100 kWh packs then naming them based on range would be somewhat pointless, right?

But yes, I agree that it looks more and more probable that they are cutting Model S/X production by 50%, to the high trim versions, instead of running it at peak 18,650 cell supply capacity.

This might also give them more factory floor space in Fremont, and maybe one of the chassis lines could be repurposed to make the Model Y chassis? I'm not sure there's much point to do that though.

Another possibility is that they think that HW3 and possible FSD introduction in early April will increase the value of the high end Model S/X as well - which would spur sales and upgrades.

I think the main issue in this process for Tesla is a smooth transition to the updated S/X (in one form or another). They don't want to be caught osbourning their products, or having to give refunds as product prices change. A time delay in the ordering process would work to solve the issue.

To me, it seems crazy to believe Tesla is just leaving a hole in the product range when they could be selling the 75kWh cash cow. I've never seen Elon leave money on the table, which this would do as there are people who want a large sedan or SUV and can't stretch to the 100.

If Tesla were not replacing the 75 then they would also be left with a few GWh of 18650 cells they need something to do with. It's not enough for another vehicle line and makes energy product manufacturing more complicated. Panasonic may reduce capacity, however this seems like a lose lose situation for everyone. Both companies would lose scale on the 18650 side but not have the manufacturing benefits of fully moving to 21700 cells.

 

[Buckminster]

Better have eyes in the back of your head.

Okay, I'm anxious now. Is this you?

or maybe?

You win - I will get back in my box. You may never see me again regardless of where your eyes are situated in the first 4 dimensions. We don't want to get entangled!