Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Guess that’s why lithium stocks tanked today. At least even more so than the general market.

Argentina's peso has lost 21% of it's value in under 24 hours...

 

[humbaba]

looks to be another low volume manipulated day. I checked @ihors3, but didn't see anything within the last week. Given the persistent downward drift on low volume my expectation is that short interest is growing, but it will be more than two weeks to get official confirmation.

If I could change one thing about the stock market it would be to have short interest tracked alongside stock price.

 

[anthonyj]

looks to be another low volume manipulated day. I checked @ihors3, but didn't see anything within the last week. Given the persistent downward drift on low volume my expectation is that short interest is growing, but it will be more than two weeks to get official confirmation.

If I could change one thing about the stock market it would be to have short interest tracked alongside stock price.

It’s up tho

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, there's a pitched battle underway at the 50-Day Moving Average line (currently at about $230.45 so could break either way. We've crossed that line several times already this morning. Let's see now much buying interest there is today.

P.S. The figure above is a 50-Day chart. Each day, the "left-most" data will drop off this chart and no longer be used to calculate the 50-day simple moving average. So you can see, that 50-Day moving average WILL be going up for about the next 11 trading days, at least until the daily data being dropped is no longer well below the current SP.

P.P.S. Macro tailwinds this a.m. too from the NDX (TSLA up 1.7% vs 2.2% for NDX):

NASDAQ-100 INDEX: NDX
7,750.68 +188.99 (2.50%)
Aug. 13, 9:59 a.m. EDT​

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Could increase distrust for all of the "Tesla killer" startups, potentially. But only seems like a positive for Tesla, furthering the notion that none of these supposed "New Teslas" can actually threaten their crown.

I wonder what a NIO collapse would do to one of Tesla's biggest investors, Baillie Gifford. On 31 December, according to Reuters, they were the largest investor in NIO, owning 10.8% of the company, with 80.26 million shares. They bought 85.3 million shares for $515 million a few months before. SP has halved since then to just over $3. I don't know if they've sold more stock since 31 December, but I think it is likely. I wonder if losing so much money will have any effect on their Tesla portfolio.

 

[StealthP3D]

looks to be another low volume manipulated day. I checked @ihors3, but didn't see anything within the last week. Given the persistent downward drift on low volume my expectation is that short interest is growing, but it will be more than two weeks to get official confirmation.

Your computer must be connected to a different ticker feed than my computer is hooked up to.

 

[KarenRei]

Argentina's peso has lost 21% of it's value in under 24 hours...

It basically means that when Argentinian producers sell a tonne of lithium carbonate for a given amount of dollars, they get more pesos out of it. Since they pay their workers in pesos and buy their consumables in pesos, they're more profitable. This lets them expand production to more marginal resources and increase production rates (more shifts, etc), which increase market availability and thus lowers prices.

A worsening exchange rate hurts residents' quality of life but boosts exports.

 

[scaesare]

of course they did, or at least that was the intent. have you ever in your life heard a car company advertise as a feature that their performance car can run 30 quarter mile sprints in a row? When was the last time ANYONE EVER ON EARTH ran 30 uninterupted 0-200kph sprints? the answer is, of course, never. It's not a thing. but Porsche wants to make it one, because they believe it's the one beyond-obscure performance metric where they have an advantage.

When it comes to Tesla haters and competitors, no amount of goalpost moving is out bounds. just look at the comments on any youtube video where Tesla stomps some dinosaur, and you will find good ol' boys desperately (and hilariously) trying to convince themselves acceleration was never that important anyway.

I believe it's also an oblique reference to Tesla's Model Esses being prone to power limiting... it's the one thing that hampered their being able to dominate at the track or strip.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Any clues as to why macros are so exuberant?

 

[humbaba]

Your computer must be connected to a different ticker feed than my computer is hooked up to.

The day is young. I'd love to see it close up, but I have my doubts.

[edit: also note it is trailing NASDAQ average. Not unusual, just that it is being pulled up by macros which is not indicative of $TSLA strength per se]

Here's hoping I'm wrong!

 

[ZachF]

It basically means that when Argentinian producers sell a tonne of lithium carbonate for a given amount of dollars, they get more pesos out of it. Since they pay their workers in pesos and buy their consumables in pesos, they're more profitable. This lets them expand production to more marginal resources and increase production rates (more shifts, etc), which increase market availability and thus lowers prices.

A worsening exchange rate hurts residents' quality of life but boosts exports.

A least in the short term until inflation effects kick in.

Argentina is one of those countries that has perennial currency problems. Sometimes inflation can outpace the drops in the currency so even though it's persistently losing value it can still be 'overvalued'.

 

[Tslynk67]

Any clues as to why macros are so exuberant?

Trump regime has dropped some of it's China tariffs and delayed others, citing "health and safety", or some other balderdash.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Any clues as to why macros are so exuberant?

Dow jumps 400 points led by Apple as US delays China tariffs on cell phones, clothing

Stocks rose for the first day in three sessions on Tuesday after the U.S. removed some items from list of new China tariffs and the additional duty on other goods is postponed to Dec. 15.

The United States Trade Representative announced Tuesday certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors” and will not face additional tariffs of 10%. The tariff should be delayed to Dec. 15 from Sep. 1 for certain articles, it said.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is anyone else following developments at Nio? They are looking in very bad financial shape right now and I’m concerned how a collapse could setback the EV industry. Nio are trying to negotiate a $1.4bn investment (read bailout) from Beijing “E-town” capital, I think this will likely happen, but at the cost of selling most of their assets into a JV. However if it falls through Nio could very quickly fall into bankruptcy and I think this outcome would be a large setback for many of the EV startups who still need continuous financing.

Nio free cash outflow was around $700m in Q1 despite cancelling plans to build their own factory and what looks like a cut to production to avoid inventory build. They finished Q1 with $1.1bn cash and I expect this will be much lower by now given Q2 and July sales were worse than Q1. In July sales were abysmal with just 164 ES8 sales (down from 927 in June and a peak 3,318 in Dec ) and 673 of the new cheaper (almost certainly lower margin) ES6s. Q1 gross margin was -13%, Q2 gm is likely to be worse, while Q3 margin will be hit further by the ES6 mix and also by the massive reduction in EV subsidies at the end of June which wasn’t passed on to consumers. Nio are guiding for a better August with 2000-2500 sales (July production apparently impacted by building batteries for recalls), but this still isn’t nearly enough to be profitable even on the gross margin level.

I generally wish all EV programs and EV startups well, but I’ve got no respect for Nio management. They have been very dishonest in their investor communication and earlier this year the CEO spent as much time lying about Tesla on his investor call as he did talking about his own products. Still, I hope they can turn this around.

Regardless of any of this, from what I heard last December, the product is not compelling enough particularly its battery capabilities. More than anything I believe that’s the issue.

You can make mistakes (Tesla has made plenty) and get away with them only if the product is desirable and to be desirable the consumer is demanding a lot - because Tesla.

FF undesirable product also. Bollinger looks like it might have a desirable product, but it better be as good as what Tesla will bring to the table, and Bollinger better not be satisfied with their first attempt but rather keep on improving. I’m still waiting to see if what Lucid brings to the table will be desirable.

Remember Tesla hit it out of the ballpark with their first EV from the ground up and still almost didn’t make it. They have continued to improve the EV since then - by a lot - and still have hit significant bumps in the road.

The chances of another EV only manufacturer surviving and thriving is still very low, especially when Tesla keeps making it harder and harder for new EVs entering the market to be as compelling AND value comparable.

 

[Tslynk67]

Trump regime has dropped some of it's China tariffs and delayed others, citing "health and safety", or some other balderdash.

From CNBC:

Stocks surged higher in a sudden move after the U.S. said it was delaying China tariffs until Dec.15 on items including cellphones and clothing. The U.S. also removed some items from list of new tariffs outright.

The adjusted policy caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to jump 424 points, while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite was 2.1% higher, led by Apple which surged more than 5%.

The United States Trade Representative announced Tuesday certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors” and will not face additional tariffs of 10%. The tariff should be delayed to Dec. 15 from Sep. 1 for certain articles, it said.

 

[Unpilot]

Trump regime has dropped some of it's China tariffs and delayed others, citing "health and safety", or some other balderdash.

Winning fatigue/S

 

[KarenRei]

I believe it's also an oblique reference to Tesla's Model Esses being prone to power limiting.

**** past Model Esses being prone to power limiting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

via CNBC:

"Stocks surged higher in a sudden move after the U.S. said it was delaying China tariffs until Dec.15 on items including cellphones and clothing. The U.S. also removed some items from list of new tariffs outright."​

A cynical man might be tempted to call this a protection scheme, pay-to-play, mobbed-up racketeering.

Who payed how much, and what tariffs were dropped? Oh yeah, Privacy...

 

[elasalle]

From CNBC:

Stocks surged higher in a sudden move after the U.S. said it was delaying China tariffs until Dec.15 on items including cellphones and clothing. The U.S. also removed some items from list of new tariffs outright.

The adjusted policy caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to jump 424 points, while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite was 2.1% higher, led by Apple which surged more than 5%.

The United States Trade Representative announced Tuesday certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors” and will not face additional tariffs of 10%. The tariff should be delayed to Dec. 15 from Sep. 1 for certain articles, it said.

Negotiations going Well.
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Tweet
Negotiations Break Down
China Devalues Currency
Currency Manipulator
RMB pegged around 7 -
Fed cannot cut rates further for now
10 Yr Treasury yields almost less than 2 Yr
US recession ...
Back to tariff delays ...
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Wait for another Tweet ...

+ Anyone who can time this will be $$$$

 

[Fact Checking]

A worsening exchange rate hurts residents' quality of life but boosts exports.

Note an important secondary channel: a weakening currency helps unemployed Argentinians find jobs.

So for them having a job is a marked improvement in quality of life, plus the country saves the expenses of unemployment benefits and skill set erosion, secondary and tertiary harm to children of unemployed families, etc.

A weakening currency becomes harmful when it happens while the workforce is near full employment.

But with the unemployment rate in Argentina at around 10% the weakening of the Peso by 20% is probably a net benefit to the economy - for now.

This is what Greece and Spain was unable to do for almost 10 years due to the Euro-gold-standard, and persistently high youth unemployment up to 40% (!) inflicted permanent damage on a whole generation who had no role whatsoever in running up debt ...

Iceland on the other hand did the right thing: defaulted on crazy debt created by the 0.1%, devalued their currency and were growing again in 2011 already.

The moral of the story: Tesla made the right decision to expand to Iceland.