Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

OT:
Tesla Solar Panels Activated.
Gen 5.6kW, sending 1.4kW back to grid

 

[ZeApelido]

Just an initial search, mixed results but doesn't give me confidence Tesla will be "recession-proof"

Luxury car market may never look the same

Record sales for recession-proof luxury cars - Jul. 8, 2010

Luxury Cars Sales Hit by Looming Recession

Credit crisis sends auto sales plunging - Oct. 1, 2008

https://www.cbc.ca/news/luxury-car-sales-rise-during-recession-1.856375

 

[UncaNed]

Janet Yellen on recession risks: On this occasion inverted yield curve may be a less good signal[/QUOTE]
What else could she possibly be? Anything other than publicly denying a possible recession would be negligently asking for it to become a self fulfilling prophesy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's not that people don't believe the value of FSD if it's achieved. It's that people don't believe that it can be achieved in a year or two, or ever for someones.

Strawman! So what? Don't buy it then. S'free country!

I'm taking about people that DO want to buy in now, but don't have a Tesla ATM. Like everyone in the Model Y order queue? Or waiting for a Tesla Pickup? Those of us it that boat would happily pay $6K now rather than $12K or $30K after its launched and into release w. Gen 2 FSD.

Or would have paid $2K back in March. Too bad the license is tied to the vehicle, or I'd already have an Oct 2016+ Model S in my garage.

 

[sparcs]

Not counting ones starting this quarter / early next quarter:

* All of eastern Europe and the Balkans, plus Iceland (the latter of which I expect to have a sustainable sales level around 25 per week M3 (325 per quarter / 1300 per year), rising significantly with the addition of MY and the pickup to the lineup)
* Russia
* India
* Brazil
* Saudi Arabia (a surprisingly big auto market - 1m cars per year with a high ASP). If I'm not mistaken, existing Middle Eastern markets are also yet to get Model 3.
* UAE + Jordan (are existing S/X markets but haven't started Model 3 sales - smaller markets than Saudi Arabia, though)

After that, untapped markets start shrinking significantly in potential sales (Indonesia, for example)

have deliveries started in Japan?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Not to mention huge EV incentives (total = $16,5k). SR+ can go for as cheap as $26,5k there.

Tesla Model 3 fever hits South Korea as crowds flock stores to see the ~$26.5k EV

South Korea population = 51,5 million.
Disposable income per capita is 13th highest in the world.

Also the whole country can be reached in about a 3 hour drive from Seoul. Should make deliveries easier.

 

[elasalle]

Janet Yellen on recession risks: On this occasion inverted yield curve may be a less good signal

What else could she possibly be? Anything other than publicly denying a possible recession would be negligently asking for it to become a self fulfilling prophesy.[/QUOTE]
Allianz's El-Erian: Inverted yield curve recession signal distorted this time around

 

[tinm]

Still pretty sparse in West Michigan but is increasing. The anti Tesla laws have worked quite well here....unfortunately.

Sooo looking forward to February 2020 when Tesla’s federal lawsuit against Michigan finally has its day in court. Prediction, which I’ve made before and still stand by: case settles with Tesla being allowed to open stores/service centers in Michigan.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I've been on audit committees, and usually those type of discussions are a tug of war between the CEO/board and the auditors and the overall policy/culture of being overly conservative vs pushing the envelope within acceptable lines. I would be shocked if milestones are not in place that will allow them to recognize revenue.

While there would certainly be a near term positive impact to earnings, IMO the more powerful impact will be in restoring confidence in Musk and the team, espeically with the C level management churn, and the longer term GM and revenue impact of current owners who haven't bought FSD and will do so. The ability to push a software product and generate revenue is the accelerant to Tesla's model vs legacy auto makers.

This is based on the premise that fewer people are confident in Musk than you believe should be.

 

[KarenRei]

have deliveries started in Japan?

Japan, Hong Kong and Macao have gone from reservations to orders and are supposed to start deliveries some time in early to mid Q3, so I didn't include them.

 

[willw64]

I think it is commonly known that Musk is not well regarded in the professional investment community. I am not saying it is a bad thing, and personally kind of like how he has told most of the analyst community to pound sand, but in order for the stock price to stabilize and debunk many of the short arguments, Tesla has to deliver on Musk's public announcements.

 

[Nocturnal]

How much do the sales and average selling price, change for the "luxury brands" in recessions? I am concerned that they will be hit harder.

While many here love to espouse the 'demand > supply', I am concerned in a recession Tesla's ASP will have to drop and kill the margins at current production rates.

Tesla is still a pretty unique product. I'd wager they will fare better than other luxury competitors, and a downturn might make some reconsider their current hesitations in going electric once they are forced to look at fuel costs.

"Hmm, 3 series or Telsa 3. Well, I didn't get that bonus this year. Wait, I'll save how much in fuel? Well, I guess that extra charging time doesn't sound so bad. "

 

[KarenRei]

Janet Yellen on recession risks: On this occasion inverted yield curve may be a less good signal

What else could she possibly be? Anything other than publicly denying a possible recession would be negligently asking for it to become a self fulfilling prophesy.

Babysitting the markets is no longer her job. She works at the Brookings Institution. Lest you think that she'll say whatever is needed to make the market happy, back in February when asked if she thinks that Trump has even a basic grasp of economic policy, she replied, "No, I do not."

 

[VValleyEV]

Indeed. Why not sell it now, separately? Why do you need to own a car? License the software to the User, not the vehicle.

Also, let owners 'lease' the software for trips. Going on vacation for 2 weeks? Here's a deal for $500 so you don't have to drive while tired. If you add your car to the Tesla Network, it should enable 'Robotaxi' for the duration of the assignment, whether or not the Owner has personal FSD. That's little different from an owner wanting FSD for a specific drive. Lots of ways to make $$ off a subscription service beyond a 1-time payment model of $7K or whatever.

Cheers!

Also unbundle the ability to join the Tesla network. So you FSD for private use could be $3k, and another $4k to be able to join the network and make money from your car.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think it would behoove this group to really dig into the data from the last recession and not just handwave away what are very valid concerns (not directed at you @keydiver, but this board in general). The effect of a recession on Tesla has always been one of my chief concerns with the company; I will be focusing more closely on what information I can find (and will probably revive the separate thread on this topic).

Those more knowledgable about economics may disagree but I believe you/we should be more concerned about a severe financial crisis like the one narrowly avoided in 2008, rather than a cyclic recession. Since WWII the longest recessions have lasted 18 months and 16 months. Tesla should be able to weather a normal recession well. No telling if a new financial crisis threatens U.S. and global economies and is not averted this time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also unbundle the ability to join the Tesla network. So you FSD for private use could be $3k, and another $4k to be able to join the network and make money from your car.

Or join TN for a reduced payout, until you've shared enough rides to earn FSD for free. It's literally zero cost financing for Tesla to do this. I suspect they will, once it occurs to them.
Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

I got FSD for 2k. My car has already appreciated.

I’m not in the FSD will take a decade+++ group. I’m in the FSD will happen when it happens camp and I’m totally okay having given Tesla some extra cash to do their thing until FSD is fully and completely here. I’m also doing it a second time having optioned out my Model Y order.

No, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to charge whatever the market will bear for a yet to be completed feature. Tesla’s been doing that since they sold their first Model S. Seems to have worked just fine. Every single car Tesla has made has improved since purchasing and it hasn’t cost the owner a cent. I’m inclined to say your barking up the wrong tree and I could make some pretty good educated guesses why it cranks your shaft personally rather than from a business/investment stance.

I have no idea when FSD features will be complete, when regulators will get on board, or when all the rest will happen. And I don’t care. I’ve long since accepted my money may be lost and I may never see a return for it.

But. I’m a betting person.

There’s a chance I’ll live long enough to see the day, when the DMV refuses to renew my driver’s license because I can’t pass the clock test or whatever, that I then get to flip them the bird and get into my Tesla and have it drive me wherever I bloody well feel like going. That right there has value to me. So far that value has been to the tune of $5k (3 + Y) + whatever it costs me when I fully option out my Tesla pickup.

I’m as happy as a clam.

I'm decidedly not a betting person and I am in the crowd that thinks true autonomy is decades away. And yet I still think Tesla's FSD has considerable value. It boils down to its current and near-term capabilities as best-in-class driver assistance. If I was thirty years younger I'd assign less value to driver assistance, but at this point in my life I love it.

Whether it is worth $2k or $7k or whatever I won't argue: it depends to a great extent on the needs of the individual. It definitely has a higher incremental cost than competitors, but it is also better currently and with much greater potential. I've never heard of GM or Nissan offering a free OTA update to improve their driver assistance packages.

IMO buying FSD is a no brainer because its value to the owner will increase over time and, independently, it will improve over time. Its like the value grows as O(n^2) instead of O(n).

My only real gripe is that it goes with the car -- that is very backwards IMO. When I buy a software license and then upgrade my computer I don't have to buy the software all over again. Tesla's approach means I'm unlikely to ever buy another Tesla because I won't be afford the future cost of FSD and the older I get the more dependent I will be on having it.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The problem with $7k for FSD is not just that it's a big ask for something that does so little. It's that it's such a large fraction of the vehicle price that it outright prices itself out of the market for most buyers. I've never spend $7k on an entire car before; Model 3 is already a massive stretch for me.

Everyone has a price cutoff, after which it becomes "I'll just drive myself." FSD has existed since the advent of vehicles, in the form of a chauffeur. Why doesn't everyone have a chauffeur? Because it's too dang expensive. Most people simply can't afford that. $7k is a lot cheaper than a chauffeur, but it's still pretty dang expensive for most people.

And currently it's $7k for a "not-a-chauffer-but-theoretically-will-become-one-some-day-if-we're-right-although-many-people-doubt-us".

I guess that's the problem with probably weighting the price when there is a drastic increase in value if it succeeds.

7k is an absolute bargain if FSD pays off - the profits from the car would pay for a roadster or two.

When you can't actually use the product it seems very expensive.

The current price is more like a speculative investment in FSD than paying for a feature.

 

[Green Pete]

Or join TN for a reduced payout, until you've shared enough rides to earn FSD for free. It's literally zero cost financing for Tesla to do this. I suspect they will, once it occurs to them.
Cheers!

I suspect it already has. Selling upfront like this is the only option for the time being as it doesn't work yet. But when it does such a program would incentivize people to put cars in the TN, which is something that would benefit Tesla and that many members of this forum have expressed reservations about. Its a win-win for Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 442085 Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter

With all (with the exception of one) top 20 institutional $TSLA shareholders reporting their Q2 positions: - as a group, they were buyers


1,912,502 shares - buyers > sellers by 71% - 3 largest 3 buyers were SG Americas, Norge Bank, Morgan Stanley

That's the current top 20. To know if the top 20 are buying it should be based off the previous top 20.