Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Hadn´t heard about semi for a while - just found this on reddit:
Tesla Truck pulling 75,000 lbs meeting and exceeding range!

 

[Tslynk67]

Interestingly enough, there are now more posts complaining about the cat food posts than there were actual posts about the cat food. Think about that for a second. The OT ran its course VERY quickly - like I actually only remember 5 or 6 posts specifically about it - now only being kept alive by complaining about it.

No, I didn’t start a new thread because its not a new topic, that topic being that rather than lead by example, its easier to just complain about what you don’t like.

Looking at the ticker, I see TSLA red with everything else green. Oh, what new and valuable thing can be said about TSLA going in the opposite direction of the rest of the market? Um...not a damn thing. SSDD.

That's because we took it to private conversations - and very informative too!

 

[Fred42]

Don't worry about the demand problem - if Tesla needs to, they could put out some please-don't-buy-our-car ads to try to lower demand to levels that they can manage

Shades of Sergio!
Not buying a 500e was probably good advice for buyers.
Everyone seemed to love him when he was alive, but FCA is such a mess.

 

[Tslynk67]

What if Tesla sold FSD “options”. The option to buy FSD for $6000 in 2020 could cost $500 today.

Not too bad an idea, actually.

Personally i'd like to see it linked to the owner and not the car - same with free Supercharging.

Right now I've a Model X, manufactured nearly 3 years ago. It has FSD, but isn't capable yet of FSD - I can't even do much on NoA here in Europe. Now if I ant to buy a new Tesla, in theory, I'll lose that free Supercharging and may have to cough-up €6k, even more, for something that still doesn't fully function.

It's not a compelling situation for changing my car, even worse as the price-cuts on Performance Model S&X halved the resale value of my car.

 

[Tslynk67]

Shades of Sergio!
Not buying a 500e was probably good advice for buyers.
Everyone seemed to love him when he was alive, but FCA is such a mess.

And look, now he's gone, they doubled the sales!

 

[ZeApelido]

Australia and New Zealand as well? I think down under will be huge...

That's what she said.

 

[humbaba]

These days that is only sometimes true.

"these days"? Quark was an egregious offender, but in the "good old days" I encountered software that required a floppy for the key (which was securely wiped on installation) and tied itself to the CPUID.

The current trend is toward subscription services which, while good for the vendor's revenue, is not good for the consumer. Even vendors that advertise a "buy it, own it" model are trying to slip their customers into a subscription model. But that is an argument for another day.

If Tesla moved to a subscription model I could understand it, even if I don't like it. But the current, "stays with the car" model is contrary to the generalized expectation people have for software and digital devices. If I buy a new iPad I can restore my purchases: they follow the account, not the hardware, whether they are a one-time fee or a subscription.

Someone with a twitter account that might get Musk's attention (@KarenRei? @ZachShahan?) could post according to @Krugerrand's suggestion.

 

[Krugerrand]

If they put another zero in there I might consider it.

They say everyone has a price. Now we know yours.

 

[Tslynk67]

Meh. Jaguar already has one of those ads out on behalf of Tesla. $3k conquest discount ad.

If I were totally clueless abut the BEV market, I'd be very curious as to why Jaguar has to bribe Tesla owners. It's really positive for Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

There is nothing recession proof about any car company, especially insofar as the stock price. Stock market gets routed and TSLA could fall in half while continuing to grow production and deliveries. When the next bull comes it would then skyrocket. But a 25% drop in QQQ could easily mean a fifty percent haircut for TSLA. Fair warning.

I know it looks ridiculous. The company has never been in better shape or more ahead of the competition.

This would be a disaster for those here looking to cash-out in the near-term. For myself it would be mana from heaven as I'm in the 10-15 year window (sooner would be better, of course). Would love to be able to buy a load of $TSLA for $100.

 

[Fred42]

If I were totally clueless abut the BEV market, I'd be very curious as to why Jaguar has to bribe Tesla owners. It's really positive for Tesla.

OEM "conquest" incentives are a common thing in the US.

 

[Antares Nebula]

"The reviewer noted that while the Model 3 is Tesla’s most affordable car, it is arguably the best in the company’s lineup terms of overall value. Tesla’s years of experience that it gained from the Model S and Model X were evident in the Model 3, particularly with regards to the midsize sedan’s build quality, which is nearing parity with German automakers."

Tesla Model 3 hailed as 'best electric car you can buy' in noted reviewer's Top 10 list

 

[Krugerrand]

If I were totally clueless abut the BEV market, I'd be very curious as to why Jaguar has to bribe Tesla owners. It's really positive for Tesla.

I had a lot of thoughts when I saw that ad. I’ve been wracking my brain ever since trying to remember if that had ever been done before, and I can’t think of a single example. Even rivals Coke and Pepsi never lowered themselves to that level that I can recall.

It would have been different if it was an ‘any other brand of car conquest discount’, but a specific Tesla only conquest discount - wow.

Agreed. Super positive for Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

You honestly believe that at the moment Musk does not have a credibility issue with the professional investment community? Yeah I do, look at the short interest in the company. I am long the stock, but you can't put your head in the sand. The 35% or so short interest represents a huge bet by the professional investment management community against the company. Look at how few sell side analysts bother to listen to the quarterly call.

I am not saying they are right, or I would be short the stock myself, but the stock action speaks for itself. Not to mention the SEC settlement.

So.....nothing to back up the claim.

Short interest by itself cannot represent any change in opinion, as Tesla becomes more well known the "pie" of investors becomes bigger, and therefore, even if the same percentage of investors hold their opinions the short interest would become larger if the total number of shares does not increase with the interest in Tesla overall.

Additionally, there is nothing to suggest the split of short sellers between insto and retail is changing.

Finally, there has been several articles discussing why short selling is high and it has little to do with belief in Musk and a lot with protecting vested interests.

Put up or shut up.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand....CA June YTD..................YTD % Share

1. Toyota........158,351 ...........,............................16.7
2. Honda........120,749........................................12.7
3. Ford...........86,315.........................................9.1
4. Chevrolet...69,325........................................7.3
5. Nissan........52,927........................................5.6
6. Tesla...........40,085......................................4.2
7. Subaru........37,477........................................4.0
8. Merc Benz...36,848.......................................3.9
9. BMW.............32,540.....................................3.4
   
10. Kia...............32,488......................................3.4
11. Hyundai......30,556........................................3.2
12. Jeep............30,334.......................................3.2
    
13. Lexus............29,438......................................3.1
14. Volkswagen..23,802......................................2.5
15. Mazda...........21,037......................................2.2
16. Ram.............19,557........................................2.1
17. Audi..............18,367........................................1.9
    
18. Dodge..........18,266........................................1.9
19. GMC............15,409 ........................................1.6
20. Acura ...........10,382........................................1.1
21. Land Rover ...8,930.......................................0.9
22. Infiniti............7,921........................................0.8
23. Porsche........6,561........................................0.7
24. Volvo.............5,889........................................0.6
25. Cadillac.........5,314........................................0.6
    
26. Chrysler........5,243........................................0.6
27. Mitsubishi.....4,852.........................................0.5
    
28. Buick.............3,892.........................................0.4
29. Mini................3,695........................................0.4
30. Jaguar............3,003........................................0.3
31. Lincoln...........2.911........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo.....1,819..........................................0.2
33. Genesis...........797..........................................0.1
    
34. Fiat..................709..........................................0.1

Total...............948,563 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 8/15/2019

Model S falls from 1st place to 3rd in its class.

Model 3 continues to kick ass in its class.

Technically, Model X drops from 2nd to 3rd in its class. But really 2nd because the Lexus RX doesn't belong in the luxury midsize class.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla continues California onslaught

 

[copyhacker]

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Bigger than Subaru in CA? That’s huge.

 

[Don TLR]

Indeed. Why not sell it now, separately? Why do you need to own a car? License the software to the User, not the vehicle.

Also, let owners 'lease' the software for trips. Going on vacation for 2 weeks? Here's a deal for $500 so you don't have to drive while tired. If you add your car to the Tesla Network, it should enable 'Robotaxi' for the duration of the assignment, whether or not the Owner has personal FSD. That's little different from an owner wanting FSD for a specific drive. Lots of ways to make $$ off a subscription service beyond a 1-time payment model of $7K or whatever.

Cheers!

I'm with you, it should be associated with the driver, I don't even have an AP car and I'd buy for my next car, LR MS or Truck. The idea of a lower price for out of network should be an option. I'd never lend my car out no matter if its self driving or not. I'm waiting for deals on a used 3 for the wife, we could lend THAT car out, she's not as particular as I am about having my car spotless.

 

[M3Rider]

Or join TN for a reduced payout, until you've shared enough rides to earn FSD for free. It's literally zero cost financing for Tesla to do this. I suspect they will, once it occurs to them.
Cheers!

It was already suggested on Twitter and Elon replied "will consider".

 

[EinSV]

Investors second guessing Tesla's FSD pricing should consider the distinct possibility that Tesla is not stupid.

Instead it seems highly likely that it fully understands that increased prices may discourage uptake of FSD in the short term but has made a conscious decision that it would prefer that most customers NOT buy FSD now at a significant discount, recognizing that it will come out ahead in the long run by charging a higher price in the future that is more reflective of the value of the fully functioning system, and that as FSD improves more customers will be willing to pay an amount that reflects the capabilities of the system. Seems straightforward to me.