Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Because to my knowledge the Raven still can't do track laps without throttling. Am I mistaken?

It could be tweaked Raven. May be they sell that as a track version of S - for $150k

 

[Todd Burch]

There’s zero chance he would announce this in advance, let alone IMMEDIATELY after the Taycan spec reveal, if he didnt already know for certain it could make it all the way around without throttling, and beat the Taycan’s time. IMO this implies something more than a mere Raven Model S.

I’d think so too. Perhaps Tesla itself went incognito, or hired someone to time a lap, and saved that time.

When Porsche announced their time and Elon saw it was slower, it was time to pounce.

Perfect .

 

[Green Pete]

There is always one 50kW CHAdeMO plug at an EA site. (Shared with a CCS plug.)

I don't believe that is true of this one. 2 350kw CCS plugs IIRC. Ill have to take a trip and check again tho. It looked like this one:

 

[Todd Burch]

Because to my knowledge the Raven still can't do track laps without throttling. Am I mistaken?

When have you seen a Raven tested on a track like that?

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't believe that is true of this one. 2 350kw CCS plugs IIRC. Ill have to take a trip and check again tho.

My understanding is that they are legally required to support all standards, so they have to have at least one CHAdeMO plug per site.

What is the second plug on the stall to the left that is with the 150kW CCS one?

 

[Todd Burch]

Ooh I’m loving this:

Tesla Haters: “Yeah, but it’s a crappy track car.”

(Tesla beats Porsche at the track).

Tesla Haters: “ummm....fake news?”

 

[2virgule5]

The Raven probably has an upgraded cooling system. And as long as throttling is not significant it should be and issue.

And maybe a software upgrade along the way to unlock some features (ie track mode with better cooling and stronger dynamic regen) that may have been there since Raven launch, actually waiting for Taycan... for max PR impact.

 

[KarenRei]

Ooh I’m loving this:

Tesla Haters: “Yeah, but it’s a crappy track car.”

(Tesla beats Porsche at the track).

Tesla Haters: “ummm....fake news?”

I expect them to pivot hilariously to "But the quality and luxury will be better".

Meanwhile...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why are people speculating about a new S variant? It's not effective marketing for the S if it's something you can't buy. Rather, it'd be osbourning the S if it's something that's not out yet.

Model 3 SRPMs are cheap now that they're in mass production. They've already installed one in the front drive unit of the Raven. The engineering for a dual drive rear powertrain was largely complete after the Roadster 2 effort.

I say if they do beat the Tinkan Tarbo S (like a rented mule), they do it with a ready to roll package, increase performance, cut costs, and increase margins.

"Win on Sunday, Sell on Monday". U kno, hard-core smack-down like? Elon's had this little something in his back pocket for nearly 3 years now, just waiting for Dr. Ing. h.c.F. Porsche AG to make a move.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

Because to my knowledge the Raven still can't do track laps without throttling. Am I mistaken?

This is actually a good question.

Raven might not have been tested yet, and actually does significantly better than past S variants.

New software update that improves track cooling?

With the new switched reluctance (front I believe?) permanent magnet motor on the newer S’s, there is less heat generated. So they’ve probably figured out how to balance the torque to minimize the heat and eliminate the cooling problems of the past. Raven probably has improved cooling?

And there MIGHT be a new hardware variant they’ll unveil, although I give this the lowest chance of being the case.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I expect them to pivot hilariously to "But the quality and luxury will be better".

Meanwhile...

Did that guy say "so S☰XY"?

 

[KarenRei]

This is actually a good question.

Raven might not have been tested yet, and actually does significantly better than past S variants.

New software update that improves track cooling?

With the new switched reluctance (front I believe?) permanent magnet motor on the newer S’s, there is less heat generated. So they’ve probably figured out how to balance the torque to minimize the heat and eliminate the cooling problems of the past. Raven probably has improved cooling?

And there MIGHT be a new hardware variant they’ll unveil, although I give this the lowest chance of being the case.

Primary propulsion is from the PM motor, which doesn't overheat. The induction motor provides supplemental power; it gets throttled back first. Even on the track, the pedal isn't flat down nonstop. In the old S/X config, there was no point in time when the induction motors weren't working, but in the new arrangement, they get significant "time off" for cooling on corners, chicanes, etc.

At least, that's been my take as to how it plays out in practice. There might also be other factors at play.

 

[Todd Burch]

Primary propulsion is from the PM motor, which doesn't overheat. The induction motor provides supplemental power; it gets throttled back first. Even on the track, the pedal isn't flat down nonstop. In the old S/X config, there was no point in time when the induction motors weren't working, but in the new arrangement, they get significant "time off" for cooling on corners, chicanes, etc.

At least, that's been my take as to how it plays out in practice. There might also be other factors at play.

I was under the impression the induction motor was still doing the majority of the power delivery. But if this is the case, things could get VERY interesting next week!

 

[Singer3000]

To the Cathie Wood disciples.

She hypothesises that yield inversion is caused by the depression of energy prices caused by technological disruption, improving productivity along the economic supply chain and boosting real household disposable incomes.

Let’s look at the UK energy market, a country which has also experienced yield inversion:

Not any obvious deflationary impact happening from energy prices in the UK. Perhaps yield curves are reflecting future expectations of energy prices by market participants? Ok, well in that case why isnt Tesla at $1000 with its bonds trading above par, while Exxon is only 30 odd percent off its +$100/bbl peak?

The Ark thesis might sound an attractive story if your personal bias is for a fossil free world, but it has a lot of work to do to prove its case. There’s a more obvious answer to deflation expectations and flattening / inverting yield curves in much of the world, which is that we’re heading for a global recession sometime in 2020/1.

There is in fact excellent technical and anecdotal data that means you should give the recession answer far more credibility than the “deflationary boom” answer which not coincidentally helps Kathy Wood in marketing her disruption investment funds.

Weak US manufacturing data, weak German industrial (and overall production) data, as many Chinese bonds defaults YTD than in 2017-2018 combined, rising gold price despite strengthening dollar... there will be others apart from me privy to non public touchpoints on global economic health. What I see scares me.

And this is without discussion of increasingly unfavourable demographics in many of the world’s biggest economies.

The debate I hear every day is not whether the world economy is in good or bad shape, that seems a fairly settled argument among finance professionals. The debate now is whether the Fed have sufficient firepower / will to launch a big bazooka and keep the cycle going another couple of years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

With the new switched reluctance (front I believe?) permanent magnet motor on the newer S’s, there is less heat generated. So they’ve probably figured out how to balance the torque to minimize the heat and eliminate the cooling problems of the past. Raven probably has improved cooling?

That's not the problem with the S/X AC induction motors. The problem is WHERE the heat is created: in an AC motor, heat builds up in the copper windings in the internal rotor, where it can't be actively cooled, just aircooled as it spins in already heated air. The resulting heat-soaking is the reason for the power roll-back with S/X hard usage.

In contrast, the SRPM motor has its winding on the outside stator, where they can easily be cooled (Model 3 uses a chiller plate with coolant circulating through it; there's a Youtube video by @Ingineer if you haven't seen it yet). The SRPM internal rotor is just a piece of steel with no windings, and so doesn't build up heat.

So you CAN'T cool the older AC motors past a certain power level. With the SRPM design, its trivial. That's why they switched designs.

Cheers!

 

[Singer3000]

Concerning Market Valuations for onshore China cashflows.

Good to see Giga3 getting closer to fruition. Of note Giga 3 and any future associated revenue falls under an onshore WOFE (wholly owned foreign enterprise).

This was a triumph of negotiation and means Tesla does not have to share the goodies with a local partner.

But:

Since 2016 it’s been very difficult for WOFEs to offshore any surplus cashflows due to ever more stringent capital controls. The same for domestically owned private enterprises too for that matter.

This doesn’t practically matter for now because Tesla will be reinvesting all surplus yuan back into further onshore growth.

But at some point the market has to pay consideration to how it values cash piles trapped overseas that cannot practically be returned to shareholders. This will be the case with Tesla and China for the foreseeable future.

Anyone care to offer any academic view on the likely market discount to Tesla’s China cashflows from Giga 3? Perhaps with Apple’s prior trapped cash problem as an imperfect precedent?

 

[shootformoon]

If top trim Roadster prices for $500k + , that is the donation I am talking about.

Ahem...
View attachment 450758

 

[Todd Burch]

Porsche’s Nürburgring time was set with a pro driver.

Dear Tesla:

Put Leilani Münter behind the wheel to beat Porsche’s time.

Then find an overweight baby boomer who’s an amateur driver to beat Porsche’s time.

Then do it with a soccer mom from Beverly Hills.


Signed,
The best marketing person you’ve ever stolen ideas from

 

[mongo]

That's not the problem with the S/X AC induction motors. The problem is WHERE the heat is created: in an AC motor, heat builds up in the copper windings in the internal rotor, where it can't be actively cooled, just aircooled as it spins in already heated air.
The resulting heat-soaking is the reason for the power roll-back with S/X hard usage.

In contrast, the SRPM motor has its winding on the outside stator, where they can easily be cooled (Model 3 uses a chiller plate with coolant circulating through it; there's a Youtube video by @Ingineer if you haven't seen it yet). The SRPM internal rotor is just a piece of steel with no windings, and so doesn't build up heat.

AC induction motors do not have windings (as such) in the rotor. They have a shorted squirrel cage (single turn).
Both types have windings in the outer stator.
The Tesla AC motor's rotor is liquid cooled via a coaxial tube setup on the non gear end.
The PMSR has direct oil cooling of the stator (and rotor to some extent).

Edit: for clarification: yes, the AC does self heat more due to the shorted rotor

 

[Zaxxon]

Whelp, my county inspector left after passing our new Tesla PV install. Thus does my circle of family/friends quarterly Tesla purchases continue. Sheesh:

Q2 18 - Model 3
Q3 18 - in-laws' Model 3
Q4 18 - friend's Model 3
Q1 19 - FSD add-on (x3)
Q2 19 - Model X
Q3 19 - PV install, my friend's parents' Model 3

I do believe that this will end the steak, unless perhaps Tesla Insurance proves out in CA and expands next quarter...