Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

• Put Leilani Münter behind the wheel to beat Porsche’s time
• Then find an overweight baby boomer amateur driver to beat Porsche’s time
• Then do it with a soccer mom from Beverly Hills

• Then do it with FSD v2 (while 4 guys in club seating play doppelkopf and sip schnapps)

Cheers!

 

[FreqFlyer]

For all of the criticism of Tesla not marketing this is brilliant going to the Ring. Whether they break Porsche's time or not imagine how many news and internet outlets will carry this. The buzz created will be big. Brilliant.

 

[Todd Burch]

For all of the criticism of Tesla not marketing this is brilliant going to the Ring. Whether they break Porsche's time or not imagine how many news and internet outlets will carry this. The buzz created will be big. Brilliant.

Yep. If they’re even close it’ll be big news. So many people are convinced Porsche can’t be beaten.

Elon is known to have made the “impossible” happen in the past...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Just remember Tesla, the Ring is called the " The Green Hell" for a reason. Tesla, do your homework (there is a reason automakers from all over the world crate their R&D prototypes and flog them on the Ring from compact cars to CUVs.)

For those who don't know-

10 Nürburgring Facts Revealed

The Tesla Ravens suspension will be begging for mercy at the end. Tesla is probably programming the Ring's curves into the car's computer.

Since this is a SP forum, maybe if Tesla does a good showing, there will be a SP bump. The notoriety can't hurt.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Yep. If they’re even close it’ll be big news. So many people are convinced Porsche can’t be beaten.

Elon is known to have made the “impossible” happen in the past...

I guarantee they’ve already run computer simulations and know they can/will beat Porsche’s time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They got the details wrong (air cooling vs. oil cooling, windings vs. squirrel cage), but the general point is AFAIK correct.

According to the @Ingineer video I posted, the S/X's AC motor is glycol cooled through a hollow rotor shaft, not oil cooled. That implies much of the rotor's mass will not be in close contact with a heat transfer path, hence the heat soaking issues. The rotor is definately aircooled on its outer surface, except when its airheated when things get hot.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has been known to use Laguna Secca, so maybe they tuned up there.

It the Model S they are shipping has a top speed significantly higher than the Taycan's 163 mph limit, then the Model S won't need much tuning beyond checking the tire pressures (3 SRPMs will work nicely). I hope they are sending a Roaster Too.

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

On one hand, Tesla could have done some sims to guesstimate that they would beat the Taycan.....but that's still a risk based on the driver.

On the other hand, a good way to guarantee to beat the Taycan is to have a updated S that hasn't been seen yet..........its prob not happening but what a troll that would be

 

[Intl Professor]

Hope you guys are listening to the climate townhall on cnn. It’s very worth doing so.

Andrew Yang mentions Elon and how awesome ev’s are.

Heretofore I've been very impressed with Mayor Pete and still am. He does well in interviews, especially short asides for qualification in anticipation of obstacles. But Andrew Yang was tops on practical ways to begin, equally agile, and somewhat embarrassed by a really sharp sense of humor (which I didn't catch--old guy--but the moderator's response was shock and hysteria!). With a live audience I could see him regaling the debate audience while slicing Trump into proschiutto wicked slices.

 

[Buckminster]

Can this be positive for TSLA? If investors follow his advice.
The Hedge Fund Manager From 'The Big Short' Who Predicted the Mortgage Crisis Now Says Index Funds Are the Next Market Bubble: 'It Will Be Ugly'

 

[30seconds]

Given the size of the Taycan tires and especially brakes I think Tesla will need a modified / upgraded S. But no reason that they can’t upgrade the performance package with better versions of both.

 

[Buckminster]

Am I right in saying Munro has not costed the M3 SR/SR+?
The battery is a different design in addition to fewer cells.

 

[humbaba]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Damn. Smackdown?

So one of the anti-testa responses linked to an article from 2018 about how a Model S was unable to complete two laps around a track. But I actually read the article and... it turns out that the Model S had been run hard all day under a hot sun and then handed off to the driver who pulled off midway through the second lap for a cooling pit stop. Seems like a typical #TSLAQ talking point: only talk about the details that tell the story you want and drown the rest out with "lalalalala".

Elon is so off the cuff I wouldn't count on him knowing the results before the race is run. He doesn't mind risking things and, as someone else pointed out, this brings attention to Tesla. Both #TSLA and #TSLAQ will be spellbound. And, maybe I'm dreaming, but I'd love them to run the roadster 2 on it as well. That should smoke the Taycan (and any other production car) and is actually in the same price range (if only it were actually in production).

The spokesperson revealed that the vehicle was out on the hot track all day. It was being put through its paces at full race speeds before Tif Needell even got a chance to drive it. Later, the engineers revealed that there was a problem with the temperature sensors, producing a state where the battery was getting hotter than it was supposed to.

Electric GT Tesla Model S Suffers From Malfunction On Track

 

[Intl Professor]

Tesla voice in cabin: "You appear to be driving rather aggressively today compared to your typical pattern. You have accelerated at a rate of approximately 0.6G on three occasions since the start of your trip, failed to give way twice and braked late five times. Your utterances also sound threatening, and you have used variants of the f-word on 12 separate occasions in the past 5 minutes. There is a coffee shop on the street second to the right, where you might want to take a 10-minute break and unwind."

Sounds like my wife.

 

[humbaba]

Am I right in saying Munro has not costed the M3 SR/SR+?
The battery is a different design in addition to fewer cells.

Correct, but I'm not sure it'd make that much difference. Different design and possibly more cost efficient, but that will be incremental rather than revolutionary. And he'll still go on about how the body designers should be put to death (I wish I was kidding, he actually said that). I'm close to being done with him.

For what its worth, what he was interested in was tearing apart the Model Y. Not sure he'll do a 3SR (unless someone pays him to).

 

[Singer3000]

GF3 is in the new Shanghai free-trade zone. If the Gov't want to attract further large foreign manufacturers to Lingang (as they say they do), they'll have to live up to their word on free trade.

Right now, I think China mostly wants the actual products Tesla will build. With a local factory, they are much less likely to get cut off from supply for political reasons.

Thank you, I had missed this story from 4 weeks ago that the bonded area was being included to cover the location of GF3.

China formally adds Tesla Gigafactory 3 area to Shanghai's Free-Trade Zone

Probably because there’s now so much white noise to signal in this thread that I tend to scroll one page in 30 seconds...

Either way it’s great news. More discussion of stories like this and less about Trump/Brexit/hurricanes would be good.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Not any obvious deflationary impact happening from energy prices in the UK. Perhaps yield curves are reflecting future expectations of energy prices by market participants? Ok, well in that case why isnt Tesla at $1000 with its bonds trading above par, while Exxon is only 30 odd percent off its +$100/bbl peak?

If one goes looking for evidence that the cost of energy is rising, one will find it. (Especially at the retail level "Wind and Solar costs are falling - I expect my utility bill will be lower this quarter" said nobody ever.)

Conversely, if I go looking for evidence that the cost of energy is falling, I can find that too.

Latest Lazard figures:
https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf

A report by BNP Paribas:
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

The paribas report is stark. It concludes that wind and solar with EVs provide 6 times the mobility of gasoline for equal investment over 25 years. That does have an obvious deflationary impact, as the EV revolution gathers momentum.

I have seen nothing that casts shade on Catherine Wood and ARK's deflationary boom hypothesis, while I am seeing reports such as those above that support it.

As for TSLA at $1000, give it time.

 

[Singer3000]

If one goes looking for evidence that the cost of energy is rising, one will find it. (Especially at the retail level "Wind and Solar costs are falling - I expect my utility bill will be lower this quarter" said nobody ever.)

Conversely, if I go looking for evidence that the cost of energy is falling, I can find that too.

Latest Lazard figures:
https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf

A report by BNP Paribas:
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

The paribas report is stark. It concludes that wind and solar with EVs provide 6 times the mobility of gasoline for equal investment over 25 years. That does have an obvious deflationary impact, as the EV revolution gathers momentum.

I have seen nothing that casts shade on Catherine Wood and ARK's deflationary boom hypothesis, while I am seeing reports such as those above that support it.

As for TSLA at $1000, give it time.

Sure but how many EVs are there out of the 2bn road vehicles in the world? What is solar’s share of global energy production?

At the moment there is a single producer (outside of China?) that can produce EVs at scale at a profit. For the rest, the economic productivity uplift to consumers is counter balances by the production loss to the auto co.

We’re all on some level programmed to see what we want to see I suppose. This to me is just the most bizarre and evidence lacking explanation for the flat/inverted yields evident today I’ve yet heard but each to their own. She may well be right about what might happen in the future of course but you risk ignoring something quite nasty in the near term if you take her as gospel.

I’m happy enough sitting in gold, treasuries and my pile of long term TSLA (which is in comparison fairly modest to the rest).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isn’t there a way to get private closed track time?

Sure, you can buy exclusive access to the track. But its a public road, and there will always be fotogs at the public viewing points. Its not like Ford's private test track which can be completely locked down to outsiders.

 

[kbM3]

There will always be Porsche die hard fans....but if Tesla can start producing the Roadster by Q4 2020, Taycan really is dead. If Tesla does the S/X refresh in Q1 12020, Taycan is also dead. If Tesla does Roadster by Q4 2020 & S/X refresh by Q1 2020 the not only is the Taycan dead but Porsche's entire lineup and the company as a whole is seriously threatened. Porsche exec's have gotta be sweating bullets at the response so far from the reveal.

As I understand it, Cayenne and Macan are the big profit drivers for Porsche these days.

If that’s correct, then it is Model Y that will really put the hurt on them.

Although to be fair, the performance luster from the sports cars is a major factor and Roadster2 will surely diminish that.