Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I don’t get the 2 speed. What did they get for it? It should have been higher top speed or more efficient.

I believe Porsche went with a 2-speed transmission specifically to maximize Nürburgring-Nordschleife performance - which was probably the only area where they thought to have a chance of beating Tesla's performance.

If you check out the velocity profile of a (mediocre) Nürburgring lap:

It's a pretty fast track where the fastest track ever performed had an average speed of 112 km/h, with speeds rarely dipping below 50 km/h.

An additional complication on Nürburgring is that there's serious altitude drops and increases, 300 meters in altitude change from bottom to top (!):

So in those areas marked 'red' you need a lot of motor power in addition to working against drag, and in the 'blue' areas there's big drops in altitude with a lot of braking, where it's useful if you can charge back your battery pack with regen braking to stay at optimum power output levels - ~7 minutes and 20 kilometers draws a lot of power.

This means that if you use a 2 speed transmission Porsche was probably able to do much of the Nürburgring lap in second gear all the time - and benefit from lowering the EV motor RPM into a higher torque performance regime:

As you can see lowering the RPM of an electric motor can increase its power output, because the power output down-slope starting point can be shifted to the right.

Note that the Roadster 2 is going to have 3 motors, where each motor can probably have a different gearing ratio - this would create a better power output profile at higher speeds too, without having to introduce a transmission.

I have no idea whether a Raven Model S can beat the Taycan on the Nürburgring next week - I really hope Elon knew the result it in advance before tweeting about it.

 

[Hock1]

My guess is they will have TSLA China buy battery from TSLA battery usa colorado plant and use that to transfer excessive cash back to USA.

But a better idea is to just IPO TSLA china in their new tech index and have the price in that index buoy the price in USA.

Agreed, but maybe spin off Tesla China to existing shareholders?

 

[Fact Checking]

My guess is they will have TSLA China buy battery from TSLA battery usa colorado plant and use that to transfer excessive cash back to USA.

Doesn't really help: Tesla China earns money by customers paying them in Yuan. If they want to send excess Yuan elsewhere they'll have to exchange those for dollars, which means going through the official exchange rate and capital controls.

Buying batteries from Tesla Colorado doesn't really help: they might pay them in Yuan but then Tesla Colorado ends up with a Yuan balance in China. If they want to get the proceeds out of China, they'll have to exchange it to dollars - at the official exchange rate.

What Tesla can and probably already does though is to pay their (significant) Chinese supply chain in Yuan earned in China, and maybe pay other suppliers in Yuan too even if those don't export from China, who have a need for Yuans. This avoids the exchange to dollars.

But I think this is pretty academic: China is the world's largest EV market and for the next 5 years I believe Tesla will reinvest most of the Yuan proceeds into expanding within China, to cover expansion capex and expansion opex within China.

 

[Stars aligned]

Can this be positive for TSLA? If investors follow his advice.
The Hedge Fund Manager From 'The Big Short' Who Predicted the Mortgage Crisis Now Says Index Funds Are the Next Market Bubble: 'It Will Be Ugly'

As the saying has it, a lowering tide sinks all ships and the opening of the drain in the bath-tube grounds all plastic ducks. If investors are panicking, they sell everything to make cash. Few see a good opportunity, but are actually catching a falling knife, are being burnt and sell also. This becomes a self-feeding cycle for a while which could go on for more than 12 months in bigger crisis. A lot of paper wealth is being destroyed in this process.

It's rare that even good stocks which are relatively undervalued can withstand this type of selloff, and sometimes they loose even more than the broad market. Good examples are AAPL in the 2000 crisis, loosing approx. 80% within a week, or AMZN in the 2008 /2009 crisis, loosing approx. 95% overall within 2 years or so. It took many years for both to reach the former high again, about 10 years for AMZN and about 7 for AAPL if I recall correctly. So, in such a scenario, cash is the safest haven.

Having said this, I doubt that we are at a critical point yet because there is still a lot of fear and doubts in the market and a lot of investments are parked in conservative investments - cash, gold, bonds, dividend kings etc. As the interest rates over all maturities become lower (see below), risk assets (like TSLA) become more attractive in search of sufficient return and might fuel a rally in such assets. This might then become a further leg in the long-lasting bull market. Only when there are signs of overheating, like overwhelming euphoria, it might be good to sell in tranches, and when the tide turns and someone removes the drain from the bath-tube, to sit on some good old cash.

Right now I see rather a buy opportunity, especially in Tesla. But time will come when a meltdown becomes likely. Then the bubble in ETF's might burst, but enough signs will be on the wall. And for sure, in the euhporia, the majority will ignore them. And if this happens, Tesla will suffer too.

Just my 5 cents derived from many years of boom and bust cycles.

 

[RobStark]

A 6'2" man sitting behind himself in a Taycan.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Really? There's still more to do? Who would have thunk?

Just trying to keep perspective. There were quite a few rumours of production starting at the end of last month when Elon was in China

 

[CorneliusXX]

Paint me Confucius, but if you are driving like that I think you are either

1. not in Australia,
   
2. going the wrong way, or
   
3. driving upside down.

Of course, you could be out of blinker oil as TB is wont to say. But that is not the biggest problem here.

How embarrassing. I haven't been driving much since moving to London, most of it has been while on holiday in Europe. I got my left and right mixed up.

What's even worse is that I spent quite a while visualising which way I was supposed to turn and still cocked it up.

 

[Dave EV]

Porsche’s Nürburgring time was set with a pro driver.

Dear Tesla:

Put Leilani Münter behind the wheel to beat Porsche’s time.

Then find an overweight baby boomer who’s an amateur driver to beat Porsche’s time.

Then do it with a soccer mom from Beverly Hills.

You forgot one last option:
Then do it on Autopilot.

Really? I thought CCS was DC, so directly into the battery, the charger only being for AC?

Shoot me down if I'm wrong on that.

They Taycan runs a 800V battery pack, if you plug into a 400V charging station, the car has to boost the voltage to 800V. If you don't get the 150 kW on-board DC charger, you will be limited to 50 kW. For $460, it seems crazy not to include it on a $150k+ vehicle.

 

[Stars aligned]

Why?

My thought has been for a while: best timing for a significant S/X upgrade is after the release of the most hyped competitor and after his cards are open. Smash him hard on all metrics again, double whammy.
Just speculation, of course, and maybe wishful thinking.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Just my 5 cents derived from many years of boom and bust cycles.

A boom accelerates the economy. More activity. More activity requires more energy, more transportation, more oil. The oil supply is constrained, so the price goes up - effectively each barrel is auctioned to the highest bidder. This adds to the cost of everything, it’s inflationary. Eventually the price pressure leads to bust.

Now imagine there was a boom in a technology that replaced oil... know any?
Such a boom would be deflationary.

I’m ignoring every bit of boom and bust advice that is based on experience garnered during the oil age. The oil age is ending. Tesla makes its own energy, literally. It’s a new age, with new expanded economic bounds.

 

[Christine69420]

I have no idea whether a Raven Model S can beat the Taycan on the Nürburgring next week - I really hope Elon knew the result it in advance before tweeting about it.

Even if it does not it should be pretty close. Which would be quite good for a family sedan at half the price when compared to a Porsche. So good marketing!

 

[ReflexFunds]

Just remember Tesla, the Ring is called the " The Green Hell" for a reason. Tesla, do your homework (there is a reason automakers from all over the world crate their R&D prototypes and flog them on the Ring from compact cars to CUVs.)

For those who don't know-

10 Nürburgring Facts Revealed

The Tesla Ravens suspension will be begging for mercy at the end. Tesla is probably programming the Ring's curves into the car's computer.

Since this is a SP forum, maybe if Tesla does a good showing, there will be a SP bump. The notoriety can't hurt.

It would be an even greater marketing stunt if Tesla beat the Taycan's time without a driver. The lack of a driver would even help with lower weight.

 

[Stars aligned]

A boom accelerates the economy. More activity. More activity requires more energy, more transportation, more oil. The oil supply is constrained, so the price goes up - effectively each barrel is auctioned to the highest bidder. This adds to the cost of everything, it’s inflationary. Eventually the price pressure leads to bust.

Now imagine there was a boom in a technology that replaced oil... know any?
Such a boom would be deflationary.

I’m ignoring every bit of boom and bust advice that is based on experience garnered during the oil age. The oil age is ending. Tesla makes its own energy, literally. It’s a new age, with new expanded economic bounds.

I welcome the very early signs of boom and euphoria. Thanks.

 

[Fact Checking]

Even if it does not it should be pretty close. Which would be quite good for a family sedan at half the price when compared to a Porsche. So good marketing!

The Model S has a ~7% larger battery but weighs only 2,108 kg vs. the Taycan which is 2,870 kg - a 35% mass advantage and an around 42% energy density advantage (!).

Lower weight should be a significant advantage on the Nürburgring - but I believe the Model S will require Track Mode to take full advantage of it, which would:

• make use of dynamic air suspension to help cornering or at least to stiffen up the suspension,
  
• allow the car to slip a bit when exiting corners - there's over 150 corners on the Nürburgring,
• increase the regen rate, this both helps keep the friction brakes cooler, and keeps the state of charge higher, plus gives less cooling workload to the cooling system,
• temporarily allow higher power to the motors, if the thermal sensors allow it,
• over-chill the battery pack and the rest of the powertrain when there's excess cooling capacity, in anticipation of bigger pulses of thermal load,
  
• other track driving tricks, such as assisting two feet brake+accelerator pedal driving.

Tesla could do a lot to improve stock Raven Model S track performance - the hardware side is mostly there: the brakes are good, the center of gravity is low, polar momentum of rotation is low, the suspension can be stiff, drag coefficient is low, and the raw powertrain performance is there, the thermal system presumably got upgraded with Raven, the rest is Track Mode software.

If everything works out then I can see the Model S beating the best ever 4 door sedan lap time on the Nürburgring - which is the "2019 Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S" with a record lap time of 7:25.41, if I googled it correctly. There's another website that lists the 2016 version at 7:10, but that might not be street legal to sell anymore. The Taycan achieved a best lap time of 7:42.

Those are the levels to approach and eventually to beat.

 

[Stars aligned]

A boom accelerates the economy. More activity. More activity requires more energy, more transportation, more oil. The oil supply is constrained, so the price goes up - effectively each barrel is auctioned to the highest bidder. This adds to the cost of everything, it’s inflationary. Eventually the price pressure leads to bust.

Now imagine there was a boom in a technology that replaced oil... know any?
Such a boom would be deflationary.

I’m ignoring every bit of boom and bust advice that is based on experience garnered during the oil age. The oil age is ending. Tesla makes its own energy, literally. It’s a new age, with new expanded economic bounds.

Now imagine, there was a time when wood and coal was replaced by a new technology called oil... no one heard of that before... and that boom was highly deflationary, but it started to end some years ago.

The current boom which is in its infants will end one day, just as the oil boom ended, and there will be ups and downs in the cycle. If you can't agree and see eternal upside from here, let's disagree. Actually, I'm quite happy with that. After all, there must be some folks who buys my stocks, once they get overvalued.

 

[Fact Checking]

It would be an even greater marketing stunt if Tesla beat the Taycan's time without a driver. The lack of a driver would even help with lower weight.

Or with a professional racing driver ... sitting in the front passenger seat while FSD Track Mode Ludicrous sets a new Nürburgring track record.

Seriously, I hope they won't do that, as it's bad marketing to marginalize the driver: track driving is all about car enthusiasts driving the car.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The Model S has a ~7% larger battery but weighs only 2,108 kg vs. the Taycan which is 2,870 kg - a 35% mass advantage and an around 42% energy density advantage (!).

Lower weight should be a significant advantage on the Nürburgring - but I believe the Model S will require Track Mode to take full advantage of it, which would:

• make use of dynamic air suspension to help cornering or at least to stiffen up the suspension,
  
• allow the car to slip a bit when exiting corners - there's over 150 corners on the Nürburgring,
• increase the regen rate, this both helps keep the friction brakes cooler, and keeps the state of charge higher, plus gives less cooling workload to the cooling system,
• temporarily allow higher power to the motors, if the thermal sensors allow it,
• over-chill the battery pack and the rest of the powertrain when there's excess cooling capacity, in anticipation of bigger pulses of thermal load,
  
• other track driving tricks, such as assisting two feet brake+accelerator pedal driving.

Tesla could do a lot to improve stock Raven Model S track performance - the hardware side is mostly there: the brakes are good, the center of gravity is low, polar momentum of rotation is low, the suspension can be stiff, drag coefficient is low, and the raw powertrain performance is there, the thermal system presumably got upgraded with Raven, the rest is Track Mode software.

If everything works out then I can see the Model S beating the best ever 4 door sedan lap time on the Nürburgring - which is the "2019 Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S" with a record lap time of 7:25.41, if I googled it correctly. There's another website that lists the 2016 version at 7:10, but that might not be street legal to sell anymore. The Taycan achieved a best lap time of 7:42.

Those are the levels to approach and eventually to beat.

I agree the Model S lap next week will likely use a new Model S track mode with added functionality from the flexible suspension vs the Model 3. Has anyone heard any talk of track mode development for Model S?

I think the Model S used may also have a new tyre and brakes track package which will be released to the public imminently together with Track Mode software.

If Tesla does have other small updates to Model S due this year, this would be a good opportunity to reveal them, however I'm not sure how likely this is, particularly given it would take time to get a new prototype (or production vehicle) shipped to Germany.

Who do we think will be driving the Tesla, Nico Rosberg?

How about Nico Rosberg in one car racing Autopilot in another?

 

[bhtooefr]

Sure, you can buy exclusive access to the track. But its a public road, and there will always be fotogs at the public viewing points. Its not like Ford's private test track which can be completely locked down to outsiders.

And this is to the point that, even during full race events where there's a full staff, they've not been able to keep spectators out of dangerous areas... sometimes with deadly results.

Really? I thought CCS was DC, so directly into the battery, the charger only being for AC?

Shoot me down if I'm wrong on that.

The Taycan has an 800 volt system, to enable extremely high power charging at relatively low charge currents. However, some CCS chargers can only handle 400 volt charging. There's two ways to do this - the first is to have multiple contactors that can effectively break the pack in half, and then reconnect the halves in parallel. Porsche apparently didn't do this. Instead, Porsche appears to have used a DC to DC converter that takes 400 volt charging power, and boosts it to 800 volts.

other track driving tricks, such as assisting two feet brake+accelerator pedal driving.

...this reminds me of something that was mentioned in reviews of the Model 3 in track driving scenarios, that may make left foot braking unnecessary. (The big reasons to do it are to make it faster to switch between acceleration and braking (no delay of moving feet between pedals), and in an ICE, to keep things like turbochargers spinning.)

I recall at least one track review of the Model 3, the reviewer remarked that they could lift off the accelerator later than they otherwise would, because regen - and therefore braking for the corner - started as they lifted off the accelerator, before they even made it to the brake pedal.

This is the kind of thing that adds up on track, especially a track with a ridiculous amount of corners like the Nürburgring.

Meanwhile, the Taycan apparently has all of its regen on the brake pedal. Left foot braking should compensate, but...

Who do we think will be driving the Tesla, Nico Rosberg?

How about Nico Rosberg in one car racing Autopilot in another?

Randy Pobst was involved in developing Track Mode for the Model 3. He's not a Nürburgring specialist (he's usually setting times at Laguna Seca or Willow Springs), but he is one of the few race drivers that's publicly associated with Tesla in any capacity...

Meanwhile, Nico Rosberg is a Mercedes ambassador - while he's IIRC done things favorable to Tesla on his own, that may be a bridge too far.

 

[Todd Burch]

Autopilot won’t be used. They have too much other more important stuff to work on.

Which is a good thing. Don’t want to do anything that gives Tesla an apparent advantage.

Wonder how the Nurburgring announcement will affect TSLA today? Maybe slight boost to help fight the MM’s pushing toward max pain?

 

[WarpedOne]

Seriously, I hope they won't do that, as it's bad marketing to marginalize the driver: track driving is all about car enthusiasts driving the car.

What bad marketing?
In one well sweep all 'track' nonsense would fly out the window: tesla is better than human, whole another level of branding/marketing.

The only things that might need be changed are maximum rate at which AP is allowed to turn the steering wheel and maximum speed AP is allowed to operate at.
Raise them above what is needed, empty the track to play it safe and grab some popcorn.

Really, I can't wait for this to happen but Elon might not play this card just yet.