Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

IMO, Elon/Tesla's response to the Taycan Nurburgring lap times, culminating in his tweet about next year's S,X *major* upgrade has turned into one big clusterf***

This post got a lot of disagrees, but it does raise a valid point. Elon announcing a new high end Model S/X upgrade that will be out "in about a year" will most definitely have some negative effect on model S & X sales in the interim.

Now it might be that Tesla had 2 negative options to choose from if it had become apparent that Tesla was seeing demand head to porsche (porsche said 15,000 orders from tesla owners correct?).

So the two options for Tesla were as follows:

1) Do nothing, and see some lost sales, particularly for the high end models, and unveil the new S/X update in a years time.

2) Do what they did, osbourne some current sales in the interim, but reduce sales going to porsche - and eventually see those sales materialise when the new high end S/X is released.

Probably better to delay some high end sales rather than lose them completely.

(of course some will say perhaps there was a 3rd option - a big advertising campaign for current S/X)

 

[KarenRei]

That's just the "anti-Osborne" air intake...

I know that's a joke, but it's not actually a bad idea.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I think this video captures the gist of the pros and cons of the issue. Also points out the similarities to the tri-motor design (and other features) that LikeTesla previously talked about — another datapoint supporting the major upgrade thesis (it seems unlikely that major Tesla fan and supporter LikeTesla would have made this up).

 

[StealthP3D]

IMO, Elon/Tesla's response to the Taycan Nurburgring lap times, culminating in his tweet about next year's S,X *major* upgrade has turned into one big clusterf***, which will cause more pain for Tesla and TSLA in the short term.

Are you always this dour? Oh, that's right, if it has to do with Tesla or Musk, it's a negative.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mercedes CEO praises rising diesel sales: 'There is no rational reason today not to buy one'
BMW Says Diesels Will Still Be Around For At Least 20 Years

Yep, I saw that too. That’s why they weren’t on my list.

 

[StealthP3D]

I question how much thought went into this series of events. Elon is extremely competitive, and this appears to be a reactionary move.

I totally disagree with that characterization. Musk is probably the most productive and brilliant industrialists of the 21st century. And one of the better marketers. He has an innate sense of what will work and what won't. Anyone else trying to start a new American car company probably would have floundered and fizzled years ago yet all indications point to Tesla becoming one of the greatest American carmakers to ever exist.

I love it when someone not even possessing 1/10th of someone else's achievements criticizes that person as if they would be better at it.

 

[mrmage]

OT
An old article about Cox enterprise and it's history. This company has a lot of subsidiaries, mainly in three areas: auto, media, cable.
This Billionaire Knows The Secret To Saving A Family Business

Cox Automotive invests into Rivian.
Rivian lands $350 million investment from Cox Automotive – TechCrunch

Cox controls a lot of media, and is part owner of Edmunds. It's always about following the money.

 

[StealthP3D]

But Edmunds is the bad guy now..........Good grief.

Edmunds isn't a person, it's a collection of people. But when management lets any of their people publically badmouth and misrepresent Tesla, it becomes a problem for the entire organization.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Musk is probably the most productive and brilliant industrialists of the 21st century. And one of the better marketers. He has an innate sense of what will work and what won't. Anyone else trying to start a new American car company probably would have floundered and fizzled years ago yet all indications point to Tesla becoming one of the greatest American carmakers to ever exist.

I don't disagree with any of this. Does that mean Elon is not human? That he is beyond reproach or criticism? What about Steve Jobs? I think Musk and Jobs were brilliant business revolutionaries. One (or two) of a kind in recent times. Extremely rare. Like an Einstein or Mozart or other rare, gifted humans that have made major, revolutionary contributions to society. I would even put them in a separate class than Zuckerberg, Gates, etc. I am a huge Tesla, SpaceX, and Elon fan.

But that does not mean I blindly follow, smile and say yes to everything both say. Both are likely not the best socially. Look how Steve Jobs treated his ex girlfriend and his first daughter. No excuse for that kind of behavior, no matter how brilliant you are.

Both Musk and Jobs are extremely competitive. It is not unreasonable to believe that they can make some irrational decisions, and that they can at times be moved more by emotion than reason, like all humans. Certainly, both have made their share of mistakes. Is this one of Musk's mistake? I think it could be, especially given his recent denials of upgrades. I think he was taunted by the Taycan Nurburgring results. His response does not appear strategic to me, but instead impulsive.

 

[humbaba]

Just like 0.2% of Jeep owners will ever take an off road trail.

But Success on the Rubicon Trail sells $40k-$100k Jeeps to the poseurs.

That and selling 35,000 lbs of tow capacity that will never be used by Ram owners delivers the profits that keep FCA alive.

oh! oh! oh! where's @RamLover69? I know, I know, I got this. I can do it!

Hauling 12,000 lbs of steel beams with my Dodge Ram, the most fuel efficient truck in America.

 

[dc_h]

The Tesla vs Porsche has become a news story, not just a car or business story. It raises the perception of EVs significantly. Elon never felt compelled to compete with the Bolt, it was beneath the 3. He mocked Woz, but who cares about the Bolt. Now one of the most legendary sport and super car manufacturer of all time is fighting it out with Tesla on a world stage. The upstart running a retrofitted lemon 7 seater and the incumbent running a prototype. It’s the karate kid vs the bullies and purists. There are no losers in this fight except everyone that isn’t in the fight. This is a billion dollar marketing campaign run with three cars Tesla’s best gear heads could fix up with some sh/t they picked up at a local parts store.
The whole story is classic upstart Tesla vs the big guys. Any Osborne affect is nothing compared to the free press and image upgrade for EVs as world class racing cars. Elon knows how to get and keep Tesla on the front page and this is awesome.

 

[StealthP3D]

Official Nasdaq short interest figures have been released after an apparent 24 hour delay.

Short interest as of 8/30 settlement is 39,744,386. This reflects an increase of 447,870 shares shorted since the prior reporting period.


Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Wow! Even though a lot of that short interest is probably big oil money, at some point the realization will come that it's not just Tesla offering EV's that are superior to gas cars, almost every manufacturer has one or more EV's that are superior to ICE. It will become apparent it's not worth it anymore to manipulate and depress TSLA as they are going to not only survive but thrive. Same with EV's in general. And I think we might not be too far from that capitulation. This year or next year. But I hope it takes a bit longer because I want their losses to be as big as possible. I hope they wait until every fund manager, every investor (and their mother and brother) wants a piece of that company called Tesla.

If you're willing to put a lot of money on the line, perhaps ever-increasing amounts, it's easy to keep a lid on rallies. But it's a different story when it comes time to exit your position. It might not be easy or cheap. TSLA has all the makings of a story that will be told and re-told as the stock that finally went berserk. When that happens I recommend not selling until it has played itself to the peak because the market generally likes to exaggerate everything. That's why I doubled my position at $184.

 

[StealthP3D]

The ultimate was the Hummer. You could take it into a WAR if needed!!

Most wars are fought with inexpensive light compact trucks and most street racing is done with small engined, inexpensive coupes and hatches. But, yeah, plenty pay the premium for bragging rights.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow! Even though a lot of that short interest is probably big oil money, at some point the realization will come that it's not just Tesla offering EV's that are superior to gas cars, almost every manufacturer has one or more EV's that are superior to ICE. It will become apparent it's not worth it anymore to manipulate and depress TSLA as they are going to not only survive but thrive. Same with EV's in general. And I think we might not be too far from that capitulation. This year or next year. But I hope it takes a bit longer because I want their losses to be as big as possible. I hope they wait until every fund manager, every investor (and their mother and brother) wants a piece of that company called Tesla.

If you're willing to put a lot of money on the line, perhaps ever-increasing amounts, it's easy to keep a lid on rallies. But it's a different story when it comes time to exit your position. It might not be easy or cheap. TSLA has all the makings of a story that will be told and re-told as the stock that finally went berserk. When that happens I recommend not selling until it has played itself to the peak because the market generally likes to exaggerate everything. That's why I doubled my position at $184.

I'd venture that given the strong resistance with the coordinated sell orders over the past 4 days, with Wed as the obvious exception, the short interest has increased a noticeable amount. Possibly up to 40.5 or 41 million shares short. They had to use a lot of ammo to cap the Tesla rally's today, Monday, and Tuesday

 

[MP3Mike]

Both Musk and Jobs are extremely competitive. It is not unreasonable to believe that they can make some irrational decisions, and that they can at times be moved more by emotion than reason, like all humans. Certainly, both have made their share of mistakes. Is this one of Musk's mistake? I think it could be, especially given his recent denials of upgrades. I think he was taunted by the Taycan Nurburgring results. His response does not appear strategic to me, but rather impulsive.

What was impulsive? You don't think they retrofitted that model S with three motors in the last couple of weeks, shipped the car over, booked the ring time, etc. do you?

They have been working on this for a long time and were to the point that they needed to test/tune it on a challenging track. He knew that once the car hit the ring that there would be no way to keep it a secret, so he might as well have announced it.

 

[Maitri982]

So obviously TSLA has had a good few days. How will tonight’s news affect TSLA? My guess is we see a lot more green:

1. Looks possible that Tesla will beat Porsche at its own game and immediately shake the stigma that Tesla’s can’t be tracked. Many higher end (read as “higher margin”) buyers may have not considered the S because it was seen as not trackable. (One of my coworkers bought a Porsche instead of an S for this very reason). This will bring those high margin buyers back.

2. Analysts will expect higher S/X margins next year with people springing for Plaid variants. Also, at the last quarterly call, Elon almost made it sound like the S would be getting taken out to pasture: “we don’t really need the S anymore”, etc. This reaffirms that the S has a future, and will bring back the S halo on the Tesla brand until the Roadster is out.

3. With this news, I think Porsche will need to cut their previous production guidance. I think they’re just not going to sell as many now. Yes they’ll still get their die-hard Porsche fans, but those looking for the ultimate performance will go Tesla’s way.

4. The Tesla killer idea is dead.

It’s what many of us here had been saying since we first heard about the Taycan. They benchmarked it against an old S and didn’t account for how quickly Tesla moves. It’s the old Gretzky thing. Porsche skated to slightly beyond where the puck was, not realizing that Tesla’s puck was on a trajectory well beyond that.

Who the hell is thinking how Tesla does on the "track" when buying a family sedan? You guys are obsessing too much about this whole thing. The damn car does 2.4 seconds to 60 already! And people are worried about race track performance? I could care less.

I get the whole image thing, but it matters less than people obsessing about this think in relation to track times.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Who the hell is thinking how Tesla does on the "track" when buying a family sedan? You guys are obsessing too much about this whole thing. The damn car does 2.4 seconds to 60 already! And people are worried about race track performance? I could care less.

I get the whole image thing, but it matters less than people obsessing about this think in relation to track times.

Thank you. Well said.

There’s also this likely reaction... “Three motors? Why would I want three motors? That sounds like 50% more things that can go wrong. I’ll take the two motor model thanks”.

 

[bhtooefr]

It matters less than you'd think in the real world... but people buying $100k+ cars aren't in the real world. And, to many of them, they want the capability even if they'll never actually use it.

(And, we're talking about a market that buys German cars. "50% more things that can go wrong" is a selling point.)

 

[anthonyj]

lmfao you guys are so funny. Arguing about Plaid... Musk just curb stomped Porsche... Jesus Christ... 4 years of development, $6b of R&D in the garbage. He positioned Tesla to leapfrog any “competitor” that comes close. You people need to realize something... Musk is the most ruthless capitalist to ever set foot on Earth. He doesn’t give a ****. He will bankrupt every single car company including Tesla and then start Tesla 2 if he has to. He is angry. It’s not about greed either. He doesn’t need yachts to make him happy. This is a game for him... it’s about a lust for blood

 

[Intl Professor]

Imo it’s because the naysayers have been pointing out problems with EVs and Teslas for so long, moving goalposts along the way. And now Tesla has proven them wrong on everything except this last one thing. Once Tesla lays smackdown on track now or with the Roadster it will be obvious that EVs are better than ICE at everything and that Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini and other brands should just ditch ICE and move into BEV sooner rather than later. As the awareness that EV has won performance spreads, it will have a halo effect for mass market EVs. And it will prove that Tesla was right and that Tesla is fulfilling its mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy for transportation.

Wasn't there a Porsche VP who said in public a few years ago "Tesla did everything right."