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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just like 0.2% of Jeep owners will ever take an off road trail.

But Success on the Rubicon Trail sells $40k-$100k Jeeps to the poseurs.

That and selling 35,000 lbs of tow capacity that will never be used by Ram owners delivers the profits that keep FCA alive.

The difference is that most Jeep buyers expect they will at some point take the vehicle off road and Jeep success on the Rubicon makes them feel that when they do it will be capable and safe. A healthy % of Ram buyers either actually will do work with the truck or expect to occasionally haul something seriously heavy. So again, knowing Rams have lots of towing capacity in reserve reassures buyers they will never find it wanting.

However the number of MS and Taycan buyers who expect to track the car is I believe quite small. Especially the number who will do so to compete against other supercars. Are the 90+ % who don't plan to ever use their expensive car on a track not going to buy the far less expensive car because it was nosed out by another on the Nurburgring by 30 seconds? Bragging rights are nice to have, but in these circumstances will not outweigh price, range, charging infrastructure, etc. etc.
 
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The difference is that most Jeep buyers expect they will at some point take the vehicle off road and Jeep success on the Rubicon makes them feel that when they do it will be capable and safe. A healthy % of Ram buyers either actually will do work with the truck or expect to occasionally haul something seriously heavy. So again, knowing Rams have lots of towing capacity in reserve reassures buyers they will never find it wanting.

However the number of MS and Taycan buyers who expect to track the car is I believe quite small. Especially the number who will do so to compete against other supercars. Are the 90+ % who don't plan to ever use their expensive car on a track not going to buy the far less expensive car because it was nosed out by another on the Nurburgring by 30 seconds? Bragging rights are nice to have, but in these circumstances will not outweigh price, range, charging infrastructure, etc. etc.

Most Model S and Taycan buyers will drive their cars down twisty (canyon?} roads at speeds above 75 mph at some point. Knowing how well it did at Nürburgring gives them confidence that they will never find their vehicles wanting.

Same difference.
 
I don't know why we've all become obsessed with track performance all of a sudden. I bet less than 0.2% of Tesla owners ever take their car on track.
Imo it’s because the naysayers have been pointing out problems with EVs and Teslas for so long, moving goalposts along the way. And now Tesla has proven them wrong on everything except this last one thing. Once Tesla lays smackdown on track now or with the Roadster it will be obvious that EVs are better than ICE at everything and that Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini and other brands should just ditch ICE and move into BEV sooner rather than later. As the awareness that EV has won performance spreads, it will have a halo effect for mass market EVs. And it will prove that Tesla was right and that Tesla is fulfilling its mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy for transportation.
 
One other quick point:

Besides, new powertrain and new chassis, Elon also suggested that the new Model S will have seven seats (option?). Perhaps it's just the test car, but more likely part of the new design. So there is at least some changes coming to the interior also. So putting it all together: new powertrain + new chassis + new interior = major upgrade next year.
 
Most Model S and Taycan buyers will drive their cars down twisty (canyon?} roads at speeds above 75 mph at some point. Knowing how well it did at Nürburgring gives them confidence that they will never find their vehicles wanting.

Same difference.
And they they crash and sue Tesla for false advertising...


One other quick point:

Besides, new powertrain and new chassis, Elon also suggested that the new Model S will have seven seats (option?). Perhaps it's just the test car, but more likely part of the new design. So there is at least some changes coming to the interior also. So putting it all together: new powertrain + new chassis + new interior = major upgrade next year.

It was an original 7 seat lemon return vehicle.
See post #84514 Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
 
One other quick point:

Besides, new powertrain and new chassis, Elon also suggested that the new Model S will have seven seats (option?). Perhaps it's just the test car, but more likely part of the new design. So there is at least some changes coming to the interior also. So putting it all together: new powertrain + new chassis + new interior = major upgrade next year.

The only caveats being this is an additional model not a refresh, and the final production vehicle could be significantly different.

On the surface 7 seats in a track car doesn't make a lot of sense... but it is versatile.
 
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One other quick point:

Besides, new powertrain and new chassis, Elon also suggested that the new Model S will have seven seats (option?). Perhaps it's just the test car, but more likely part of the new design. So there is at least some changes coming to the interior also. So putting it all together: new powertrain + new chassis + new interior = major upgrade next year.
Pure speculation.
 
They did not do all that engineering and R&D just to make a tracking car. No way. Makes zero sense. This is a new platform for the S (and likely X). New powertrain, new chassis, and (I bet) new interior. Lot of bulls here are letting their bias cloud their judgement. I'm not going to belabor the point further; let's wait till next year and see what happens.

Of course they didn't. They developed most of it for the new Roadster and decided that it might be good to put it into the S&X as well. They could even make the new Plaid/P100D+ variant, or whatever it is called, a hand-built variant. It isn't like they are going to be making 100k $150k Model S a year. (It is going to be a low volume car.) Did Elon say that he expects the Roadster to only sell 10k cars a year? Maybe the Plaid S&X will be built on the same line as the Roadster.

You don't need an alien dreadnaught production line to build ~40k Plaid vehicles per year. (~10k Roadster, ~10k Model X, ~20k Model S) How many Plaid vehicles do you expect them to sell per year?

One other quick point:

Besides, new powertrain and new chassis, Elon also suggested that the new Model S will have seven seats (option?). Perhaps it's just the test car, but more likely part of the new design. So there is at least some changes coming to the interior also. So putting it all together: new powertrain + new chassis + new interior = major upgrade next year.

The current Model S is already a 7 seat car when you add the 2 rear facing seats. (Which the car at the track now is one of.)
 
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The only caveats being this is an additional model not a refresh, and the final production vehicle could be significantly different.

On the surface 7 seats in a track car doesn't make a lot of sense... but it is versatile.

PR, something for the clickbaiters to write about, also differentiator to 2.75 seats in the Taycan
 
With all this Osborning talk, is anyone even considering the "why buy a Taycan when restyled P100D is right around the corner" factor?

It'll net out to something positive.

Well both cars are perfect for people who drive bends at 150mph. For the remainder there is no need to wait. I can see the Osborne effect being a real worry here... for 0.001% of buyers.
 
Interesting article about lithium supply and implications if Tesla eventually makes their own batteries.

Brazilian lithium producer Sigma in talks with Tesla, other automakers

Brazilian lithium startup Sigma trying to sell lithium directly to Tesla, but it sounds like Tesla is passing off them to a chinese supplier Ganfeng with the lithium being shipped to China first.

He added that Sigma would prefer to ship its lithium directly to Tesla in California, although that can only happen once makers of cathodes, one of the two main battery components, set up shop in the United States.
 
Interesting article about lithium supply and implications if Tesla eventually makes their own batteries.

Brazilian lithium producer Sigma in talks with Tesla, other automakers

Brazilian lithium startup Sigma trying to sell lithium directly to Tesla, but it sounds like Tesla is passing off them to a chinese supplier Ganfeng with the lithium being shipped to China first.

You buried the lead. Ganfeng will only buy from Sigma if Sigma sells their entire output to a Chinese consortium. So China can do what they are doing in Africa and completely control their suppliers.