RobStark
Well-Known Member
Family sedans don't start at $80k. Even with $10k in potential savings.
Elon Musk knows that there are enough customers that care he is putting Model S on the track.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Family sedans don't start at $80k. Even with $10k in potential savings.
Elon Musk knows that there are enough customers that care he is putting Model S on the track.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
When can I buy the t-shirt?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
LOL! Exactly how many short Calls did you write? When do they expire? Be honest now. Sux2b caught short.
Could be, but I think eventually dual motor S will be dropped. Like they did with rwd after D came -ok it took a cpl years.
Stars aligned
Member
Now this makes some sense... simplify and standardise production lines, same for S / X / new roadster next year.
Troy Teslike on Twitter
View attachment 454062
Troy Teslike on Twitter
View attachment 454062
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Most programmer types are ocd.
I will move on to say japan is OCD squared.
But what I have a beef with. Are psychologists in their ivory tower coining this as a disorder. (sorry, bad memories of an ex who's a phD psychiastrist)
Any Change has a big impact. So don't see existing M3 lines with goal of achieving 7K/week (almost there) ... being tinkered with.
As with S/X second line the new line might have capability to support both 3 & Y.
Also switching 3 to Y upgrades will be another hubris that Jerome will want to avoid ...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Agreed, and I commented on the curious lack of genuine leaks (of "sources familiar with the matter") and "leaks" (of widely distributed internal emails) about Q3 production and deliveries too:
To recap Q3 market expectations:
- Guidance for 2019 was 360k-400k total deliveries in 2019 and a sequential increase in Q3: "We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year."
- Q2 total deliveries were 95,200, so that's the minimum to meet,
- Q1+Q2 total deliveries were 158,200, so the guidance range for the second half of the year is 201,800-241,800 - which assuming an even split between Q3 and Q4 would mean a Q3 guidance of 100,900-120,900 - the higher guidance would control, so I think we can safely assume that hitting 100,000 is a minimum goal required of Tesla.
- The year-before Q3'2018 was 83,500 deliveries of high ASP units, 55,840 Model 3's and 26,660 Model S/X's.
- Q2'2019 Model 3 deliveries were 77,550, and Model S/X deliveries were 17,650, so that's a minimum bar to meet as well.
(Now back to our regularly scheduled programming to discuss track performance and whether announcing a far-out refresh and showing glimpses of nice looking prototypes like every single other carmaker does will hurt sales or increase the buzz around a brand perceived somewhat stale.
)
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Just to dampen enthusiasm a bit: the Taycan's two-speed gearbox trick will help them most in achieving higher speeds in the fast straights, and this video is of a relatively slow corner. So this video is inconclusive, it at best is showing that the Raven has a chance to measure up to the Taycan.
But to be honest I'd be shocked if one of Porsche's tear-down engineering firms didn't carefully benchmark and run a simulated Nürburgring run with the Raven (yes, there are software tools for that), before deciding to make Nürburgring track performance the cornerstone of their marketing strategy.
So my baseline expectation for Raven Model S Nürburgring track performance would be a lap time somewhere between the Taycan's 7:42 and 7:59.
If it's 8:xx or 9:xx then I doubt Tesla is going to post the result, but might post a Plaid result instead.
97% of all statisics found in discussions on the internet are fictitious.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f0/ed/02/f0ed023af7a0d21fd5da18c06eab8db3.gif
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
While that's true as a very crude stereotype it's also a requirement of good programmers to have an almost obsessive attention to details, because computers and programming environments are very unforgiving if you make average-human mistakes.
But it's rare to see programmers/engineers with the artistic design and business skills comparable to Steve Jobs or Elon Musk. Just look at the UI of pretty much every major software project in existence: it was either designed by non-programmers, or it sucks.
More importantly, Steve Jobs wasn't actually a programmer (or engineer) type, while Elon is. Without sounding overly cultish I cannot really name any other founder-CEO of the past ~40 years who had both a good eye for artistic design and was good at first principles engineering.
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Model S had seven seats in the past, I had a Model S with 7 seats in 2014.
I have definitely heard Apple is another hard ball to play with but their order is so big so supplier just suck it up
Yes, I'm not expecting it, but it is worth a try....
I just think track mode evens up cornering, so neither car has an advantage, the Model S has faster initial acceleration, so can get moving faster initially on the straights...
It is also possible that Tesla can do a few minor tweaks to improve the Raven....
I agree it will only be posted if close to or better than the Taycan time.
Pras
Member
I think the Taycan Nürburgring challenge was a blessing in disguise for model S which was suffering a bit from identity crisis after the excellent design of model 3. The race track performance discussion and conclusions (ie Tesla winning the segment), will add the much needed exclusivity element as a complete sports car vs just pure straight line performer.
So far people were underestimating Tesla technology by limiting to the point that oh, electric motors have great torque so it is obvious why they have better 0-60; while ignoring the point that electric motors (specially say 3 motor configuration) can better turn, accelerate, break, and also adjust / configured dynamically with changing track conditions.
For example, in a formula one car there are plenty of considerations about a “wet” set up like adjusting torque, gear shifts limits, suspension, ride heights, etc, that Tesla can not only do but do in an integrated (optimized set up) way. Porsche very recently introduced “wet mode” for their 911 line up. I would say that Tesla likely already adjusts to changing condition so technically doesn’t need a “mode”, but can highlight these advantages more.
So far people were underestimating Tesla technology by limiting to the point that oh, electric motors have great torque so it is obvious why they have better 0-60; while ignoring the point that electric motors (specially say 3 motor configuration) can better turn, accelerate, break, and also adjust / configured dynamically with changing track conditions.
For example, in a formula one car there are plenty of considerations about a “wet” set up like adjusting torque, gear shifts limits, suspension, ride heights, etc, that Tesla can not only do but do in an integrated (optimized set up) way. Porsche very recently introduced “wet mode” for their 911 line up. I would say that Tesla likely already adjusts to changing condition so technically doesn’t need a “mode”, but can highlight these advantages more.
Stars aligned
Member
OK, some critical thoughts on this figures. First, are they accurate? Maybe, but even then, secondly, this does not reflect total short positions, including derivatives and so on. Third, for sure the shorts waiting to 180 levels were some retail bag holders which jumped in when the SP was already low, while the big ones unloaded and probably shorted again at higher levels. Smart money, you know.So 39.74m TSLA shares shorted was the 8/30 figure, and Ihor Dusaniwsky's closest short interest figure was 39.90m TSLA shares shorted one day before that, on 8/29:
That's pretty impressively accurate, given that the NASDAQ figures update once a month, so whatever algorithm Ihor is using has the highest inaccuracy right before the official report. I did point out in the past when Ihor's short interest guesses were off, and I regularly double check the track record of his methodology.
I'd also like to note that if Ihor had anything to hide about his firm's methodology, he'd likely avoid reporting his guesses right before the official report's settlement date, which makes it easy to double check and falsify.
So if Ihor says that the last two weeks wasn't short covering that's probably an honest opinion based on data, and let's not attack the messenger over that ...
BTW., this also means that most of the shorts missed the dip from ~$250 levels to $180 levels and squandered ~$2.8b profits by not covering, waiting for TSLA to hit $0 I suppose?
My takeaway: I believe big shorts are rational too. Should they see that their position becomes hopeless, they won't run to Igor and tell him "let anybody now we are covering, so they let us shares cheap". Also they do not go into the open market and place big orders. But they probably start buying decent calls and exercise them at a certain point, while let believing everyone that they hold their position.
Short covering of a big position is not something which starts at a given up day, and it is also not something which needs necessarily be reflected in Igor's data. But his data is still helpful, for example the borrowing rate is somewhat telling and I like to watch him for giving contrarian signals between the lines.
In summary, it might well be that short covering has already started under the surface, but the data are not showing it yet, including Igor's. I don't expect him to show that in a meaningful and timely way, but he provides some useful data points if taken with some grains of salt.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Where we're going, we don't need cows...Honestly, what is it with the cow catcher grille aesthetic (Pilot (locomotive) - Wikipedia)? Reminds me of the transition from steam to diesel locomotives. Cow catchers were on the losing vehicle technology then too.
So 39.74m TSLA shares shorted was the 8/30 figure, and Ihor Dusaniwsky's closest short interest figure was 39.90m TSLA shares shorted one day before that, on 8/29:
That's pretty impressively accurate, given that the NASDAQ figures update once a month, so whatever algorithm Ihor is using has the highest inaccuracy right before the official report. I did point out in the past when Ihor's short interest guesses were off, and I regularly double check the track record of his methodology.
I'd also like to note that if Ihor had anything to hide about his firm's methodology, he'd likely avoid reporting his guesses right before the official report's settlement date, which makes it easy to double check and falsify.
So if Ihor says that the last two weeks wasn't short covering that's probably an honest opinion based on data, and let's not attack the messenger over that ...
BTW., this also means that most of the shorts missed the dip from ~$250 levels to $180 levels and squandered ~$2.8b profits by not covering, waiting for TSLA to hit $0 I suppose?
That was my point the other day. People talk about shorts being in "profit", well would be fine if they closed their positions...
However, just thinking about it a bit. I guess a short position from, say $350, could have been closed at $180, then a new short position initiated at $180 for the same, or double the number of shares...? So profits could be taken, but the short interest would remain the same, or even increase. If it was don't carefully over a number of days, the buy and sell orders would cancel out ay SP major SP movement.
Max Pain currently $240 - which is a damn sight better than recent weeks. Could see a rise in that during the day as the Nikkei traded to 4 month highs on the back of (sigh) trade-war conciliatory noises plus ECB reducing interest rates (-0.4% to -0.5%) and starting quantitative-easing (€20b of debt to be purchased)
And Nasdaq futures currently up 0.29%
Carl Raymond
Active Member
I’m 96% sure that Antares meant “idol”. On an insult scale, much of a muchness.
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