Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I think the Taycan Nürburgring challenge was a blessing in disguise for model S which was suffering a bit from identity crisis after the excellent design of model 3. The race track performance discussion and conclusions (ie Tesla winning the segment), will add the much needed exclusivity element as a complete sports car vs just pure straight line performer.

So far people were underestimating Tesla technology by limiting to the point that oh, electric motors have great torque so it is obvious why they have better 0-60; while ignoring the point that electric motors (specially say 3 motor configuration) can better turn, accelerate, break, and also adjust / configured dynamically with changing track conditions.

For example, in a formula one car there are plenty of considerations about a “wet” set up like adjusting torque, gear shifts limits, suspension, ride heights, etc, that Tesla can not only do but do in an integrated (optimized set up) way. Porsche very recently introduced “wet mode” for their 911 line up. I would say that Tesla likely already adjusts to changing condition so technically doesn’t need a “mode”, but can highlight these advantages more.

Wet setup - could do something significant here with a Raven, soften the suspension, change the throttle mapping, adapt the traction control characteristics. Probably quite easy to do so and would be useful for road cars too, although that being said, I've never lost traction in my XP100DL, it's just nailed to the road. My previous RWD P85 was a different proposition altogether, I was looking for opportunities to get to loose and loose it got. Great fun!

 

[Fact Checking]

I just think track mode evens up cornering, so neither car has an advantage, the Model S has faster initial acceleration, so can get moving faster initially on the straights...

Porsche has picked the Nürburgring consciously to put Tesla at a maximum disadvantage (and that's fine): average speed of a 7:42 lap on the 20.6 km track was 160.5 km/h, with such a brutal velocity profile (graph not from the Taycan):

This track profile means that the car has to accelerate from ~100 km/h to 200+ km/h about ~20 times, with another ~20 episodes of acceleration from ~100 to ~150 km/h. As you can see it about ~65% of the time is spent in one of the heavy acceleration+braking episodes going relatively straight with the pedal to the metal and then braking before and while entering the corner, the other ~35% with cornering.

There's about 30 major corners and about 50 minor corners in total - about ~700 meters between major corners: it's a very fast track.

Top speed of the Raven in one of the ~5 major straight line track sections would be more indicative of its Nürburgring performance. I presume Tesla is able to equip the Raven with high performance racing brakes so braking performance should be similar.

Has Porsche posted any Taycan 100->200 km/h acceleration figures, and do we know how the Raven does in comparison?

 

[ReflexFunds]

They did not do all that engineering and R&D just to make a tracking car. No way. Makes zero sense. This is a new platform for the S (and likely X). New powertrain, new chassis, and (I bet) new interior. Lot of bulls here are letting their bias cloud their judgement. I'm not going to belabor the point further; let's wait till next year and see what happens.

I think it's somewhat ironic that you've spent about 15 posts attacking Elon/Tesla's decision (and suggesting anyone that defends it are deluded fanbois) because of the risk of osborning, while at the same time you are trying to change peoples minds to believe that this means a whole S&X line-up refresh is imminent and people should stop buying Tesla's current cars.
If Tesla shouldn't be allowed to talk about Tesla's future products, then neither should its supporters.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think it's somewhat ironic that you've spent about 15 posts attacking Elon/Tesla's decision (and suggesting anyone that defends it are deluded fanbois) because of the risk of osborning, while at the same time you are trying to change peoples minds to believe that this means a whole S&X line-up refresh is imminent and people should stopping buying Tesla's current cars.
If Tesla shouldn't be allowed to talk about Tesla's future products, then neither should its supporters.

Agreed. Also note that what Tesla has done with the Maximum Plaid prototype is basically what every single carmaker has been doing for decades: carefully teasing next gen products, showing their prototypes to allow "spy shots" (read: free advertising), to keep brand excitement and the buzz high.

The only major difference is that Tesla neither used a mule nor camo to hide the new chassis of the next gen version, which is an understandable decision, given how similar the next-gen Model S is to the current model on the outside, and how close to a perfect design the current model has.

So if you like the new design, you will very likely like the current Raven as well, and if you need a car you might as well take the deal while it lasts, the new Model S certainly won't be less expensive.

I think it's better for Tesla to bite the bullet and commit to a more official refresh schedule, and take whatever Osborning there might happen - which would happen anyway due to rampant "refresh is around the corner" speculation. This way they can at least reap the PR benefits.

 

[kbM3]

I don't disagree with any of this. Does that mean Elon is not human? That he is beyond reproach or criticism? What about Steve Jobs? I think Musk and Jobs were brilliant business revolutionaries. One (or two) of a kind in recent times. Extremely rare. Like an Einstein or Mozart or other rare, gifted humans that have made major, revolutionary contributions to society. I would even put them in a separate class than Zuckerberg, Gates, etc. I am a huge Tesla, SpaceX, and Elon fan.

But that does not mean I blindly follow, smile and say yes to everything both say. Both are likely not the best socially. Look how Steve Jobs treated his ex girlfriend and his first daughter. No excuse for that kind of behavior, no matter how brilliant you are.

Both Musk and Jobs are extremely competitive. It is not unreasonable to believe that they can make some irrational decisions, and that they can at times be moved more by emotion than reason, like all humans. Certainly, both have made their share of mistakes. Is this one of Musk's mistake? I think it could be, especially given his recent denials of upgrades. I think he was taunted by the Taycan Nurburgring results. His response does not appear strategic to me, but instead impulsive.

Here’s the flaw in your thinking:
‘Well this [genius or subject matter expert] has made mistakes before” (TRUE)
“Therefore I [who am neither genius nor a subject matter expert] can judge that this will be a mistake” (FALSE)

lmfao you guys are so funny. Arguing about Plaid... Musk just curb stomped Porsche... Jesus Christ... 4 years of development, $6b of R&D in the garbage. He positioned Tesla to leapfrog any “competitor” that comes close. You people need to realize something... Musk is the most ruthless capitalist to ever set foot on Earth. He doesn’t give a ****. He will bankrupt every single car company including Tesla and then start Tesla 2 if he has to. He is angry. It’s not about greed either. He doesn’t need yachts to make him happy. This is a game for him... it’s about a lust for blood

Agree except for the motivation is a lust for blood part. I think we should believe him when he says that he’s out to save the planet (even if it means Tesla has to destroy whole industries). Everything Tesla does seems perfectly aligned with this motivation.

 

[kbM3]

In addition to service, one of my greatest worries has been Tesla reliability. I know it’s too much to hope for Tesla to beat Lexus in reliability in addition to beating Toyota in efficiency/fuel economy, Volvo in safety and Porsche in performance, but I can dream. But even if they don’t top Lexus, I still wanted to see major progress. Obviously improving reliability, improves service tangentially.

In particular the trolls have been citing a survey where Tesla came in dead last in reliability. Well great news! Here’s the new survey from the same magazine Tesla jumped all the way from last up to 4th only behind Lexus, Toyota and Subaru.

The UK’s most & least reliable car makes

 

[deemo]

Edmunds is apparently run by children.

Edmunds on Twitter

View attachment 453831

(Seriously, the comments are hilarious )

So they are wanting to compare the buz of a car that was introduced almost 10 years ago to one that is not even available - epic fail

 

[mrdoubleb]

To meet guidance Tesla would have to deliver about 17.6k Model S/X's, and at minimum of 83,250 Model 3's, for a total of at least 100,900 units delivered - but there's probably more than that realized in the price already, based on European deliveries tracking better than Q2 - although U.S. deliveries were tracking worse than Q2.

As per the InsideEVs numbers (unless we have something more trustworthy) we are doing rather good in the US as well. I would estimate about 10% growth in both Europe and US up until September and we know RHD deliveries are in full swing as well. 100k should be an easy bar to jump. (Image credit to Reddit user Cyrusis)

 

[Fact Checking]

In addition to service, one of my greatest worries has been Tesla reliability. I know it’s too much to hope for Tesla to beat Lexus in reliability in addition to beating Toyota in efficiency/fuel economy, Volvo in safety and Porsche in performance, but I can dream. But even if they don’t top Lexus, I still wanted to see major progress. Obviously improving reliability, improves service tangentially.

In particular the trolls have been citing a survey where Tesla came in dead last in reliability. Well great news! Here’s the new survey from the same magazine Tesla jumped all the way from last up to 4th only behind Lexus, Toyota and Subaru.

The UK’s most & least reliable car makes

So Tesla is the #4 most reliable car:

#4: Tesla – 96.9%

Our data suggested that electric cars are among the most reliable classes of cars you can buy – so perhaps it’s no surprise to see electric-only Tesla do so well.​

And the #9 spot in the list of the least reliable cars is:

9: Porsche – 91.7%

Porsche has traditionally had a strong reputation for making bullet-proof cars, so this is a disappointing showing. It seems its more modern examples are less reliable than its older models.​

Ouch ...

​

 

[Fact Checking]

As per the InsideEVs numbers (unless we have something more trustworthy) we are doing rather good in the US as well. I would estimate about 10% growth in both Europe and US up until September and we know RHD deliveries are in full swing as well. 100k should be an easy bar to jump. (Image credit to Reddit user Cyrusis)

Thanks for the correction, I misremembered that!

 

[ReflexFunds]

So Tesla is the #4 most reliable car:

#4: Tesla – 96.9%

Our data suggested that electric cars are among the most reliable classes of cars you can buy – so perhaps it’s no surprise to see electric-only Tesla do so well.​

And the #9 spot in the list of the least reliable cars is:

9: Porsche – 91.7%

Porsche has traditionally had a strong reputation for making bullet-proof cars, so this is a disappointing showing. It seems its more modern examples are less reliable than its older models.​

Ouch ...

​

But as all journalists know, surveys and statistics are meaningless.
What really matters is careful selection of random anecdotes to shape into any narrative you like.

 

[Fact Checking]

Agree except for the motivation is a lust for blood part. I think we should believe him when he says that he’s out to save the planet (even if it means Tesla has to destroy whole industries). Everything Tesla does seems perfectly aligned with this motivation.

Yep, Elon has five children and he's genuinely concerned about the planet's future. He's not wrong:

The other big motivation Elon has I believe is that he's a Maker, and he'd like to turn the sci-books he read as a child into reality.

If Elon had any "lust for blood" he'd already have unleashed the for-hire bastards every other billionaire under attack is using: lawyers, lobbyists, politicians, private investigators and journalists. Instead he is almost blissfully taking the blows, without punching back.

It's pretty clear to me that Elon was systematically bullied in school and that the current attacks are nothing to him.

Anyway, @Antares Nebula is IMHO misreading Elon's motivations big time.

 

[Fact Checking]

Significant Performance Model 3 price increase in the UK, by +$3,700:

Model 3 Performance Price Increase in the UK (+£3,000 / $3,700) : teslamotors​

This suggests that UK demand is fine.

 

[AlMc]

I don't disagree with any of this. Does that mean Elon is not human? That he is beyond reproach or criticism? What about Steve Jobs? I think Musk and Jobs were brilliant business revolutionaries. One (or two) of a kind in recent times. Extremely rare. Like an Einstein or Mozart or other rare, gifted humans that have made major, revolutionary contributions to society. I would even put them in a separate class than Zuckerberg, Gates, etc. I am a huge Tesla, SpaceX, and Elon fan.

But that does not mean I blindly follow, smile and say yes to everything both say. Both are likely not the best socially. Look how Steve Jobs treated his ex girlfriend and his first daughter. No excuse for that kind of behavior, no matter how brilliant you are.

Both Musk and Jobs are extremely competitive. It is not unreasonable to believe that they can make some irrational decisions, and that they can at times be moved more by emotion than reason, like all humans. Certainly, both have made their share of mistakes. Is this one of Musk's mistake? I think it could be, especially given his recent denials of upgrades. I think he was taunted by the Taycan Nurburgring results. His response does not appear strategic to me, but instead impulsive.

Your opinion and I will follow that with mine.

Yes, EM, like all of us, has made mistakes and many, including myself, have called him out on them.

Some prompted by emotion vs strategy.

I think this was strategic in that the cars were already in Germany BEFORE the Taycan reveal. EM was waiting for the announcement of the Taycan specs and I believe knew that on most, if not every measure, the current P100D or the new P100D+, would at least match if not beat the German car. He knew (strategic) that he would get tons of free publicity by using their specs, including the 'ring' time to his advantage.

 

[Nate the Great]

This post got a lot of disagrees, but it does raise a valid point. Elon announcing a new high end Model S/X upgrade that will be out "in about a year" will most definitely have some negative effect on model S & X sales in the interim.

Now it might be that Tesla had 2 negative options to choose from if it had become apparent that Tesla was seeing demand head to porsche (porsche said 15,000 orders from tesla owners correct?).

So the two options for Tesla were as follows:

1) Do nothing, and see some lost sales, particularly for the high end models, and unveil the new S/X update in a years time.

2) Do what they did, osbourne some current sales in the interim, but reduce sales going to porsche - and eventually see those sales materialise when the new high end S/X is released.

Probably better to delay some high end sales rather than lose them completely.

(of course some will say perhaps there was a 3rd option - a big advertising campaign for current S/X)

There is a slim chance they will be releasing plaid in Q3 as per a few leaks. It is also notable that this info was released near the middle of September. It wouldn't kill Q3 demand.

 

[KarenRei]

Does anyone have a theory on why the Bloomberg tracker is showing a flat production rate starting mid Aug 11 2019. It has shown 520,557 for a while now.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg tracker is AFAIK shut down.

 

[jerry33]

Is this one of Musk's mistake? I think it could be, especially given his recent denials of upgrades. I think he was taunted by the Taycan Nurburgring results. His response does not appear strategic to me, but instead impulsive.

This kind of implies that there was no plan for this kind of car and they got it totally developed and deployed in one week because Musk got a bee in his bonnet. That makes no sense. What makes more sense is that this has been in development for a long time and this was the perfect moment to unveil it.

 

[HG Wells]

Significant Performance Model 3 price increase in the UK, by +$3,700:

Model 3 Performance Price Increase in the UK (+£3,000 / $3,700) : teslamotors​

This suggests that UK demand is fine.

Fact Checking I must strongly disagree with you.
It does not show that UK demand is fine.

It shows that demand is excessive.

 

[KarenRei]

Fact Checking I must strongly disagree with you.
It does not show that UK demand is fine.

It shows that demand is excessive.

It could also just show that the British Pound is weak and they're starting to make adjustments

 

[mongo]

Fact Checking I must strongly disagree with you.
It does not show that UK demand is fine.

It shows that demand is excessive.

Sir, I must disagree with you. No amount of Tesla demand can ever be deemed excessive.
I would instead term it forte.

Spoiler: ba(n)d joke

Which would then make @factchecking's post indicate demand is at an end, which would give us both something to disagree with.
Here's to fortississimo!
What up fellow musicians!