My Canada forecast numbers are similar - 4664 Model 3, plus some S and X (I don't track them individually). July was up somewhat QoQ (1108 M3 vs. 992 in April), but August was way down QoQ (~650 vehicles, so I estimate ~585 Model 3, vs. 1489 in May). BC incentives were weakened, and also you've got the post-surge lull, in that now tons of people who wanted your car have it. A curve fit (half constant, half linear) for the third month fits that to 2971 Model 3 deliveries, or a total of 4464. Add in S+X and you get near 5k.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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My Canada forecast numbers are similar - 4664 Model 3, plus some S and X (I don't track them individually). July was up somewhat QoQ (1108 M3 vs. 992 in April), but August was way down QoQ (~650 vehicles, so I estimate ~585 Model 3, vs. 1489 in May). BC incentives were weakened, and also you've got the post-surge lull, in that now tons of people who wanted your car have it. A curve fit (half constant, half linear) for the third month fits that to 2971 Model 3 deliveries, or a total of 4464. Add in S+X and you get near 5k.
“Heads Tesla wins, Tails Fossils Lose” - nice deep dive into what we have been saying here about the problems that the Tesla/Porsche performance rivalry poses for the Porsche product lineup and marketing strategy.
Tesla vs Porsche EV Rivalry Accelerates the Death of Fossil Vehicles | CleanTechnica
IMHO they were being nice with that sub-headline halfway through the article. The point is that Porsche is in a lose-lose position where they can’t preserve their BEV performance supremacy without devaluing their ICE fleet and threatening its revenue stream. So is it “Heads Tesla wins, Tails Porsche Loses”?
Tesla vs Porsche EV Rivalry Accelerates the Death of Fossil Vehicles | CleanTechnica
IMHO they were being nice with that sub-headline halfway through the article. The point is that Porsche is in a lose-lose position where they can’t preserve their BEV performance supremacy without devaluing their ICE fleet and threatening its revenue stream. So is it “Heads Tesla wins, Tails Porsche Loses”?
The post surge lull makes sense. Maybe the new numbers are more indicative of a constant state. They are definitely more plentiful on the road though. Estimated delivery on the website for this area is 3 weeks.
3 weeks, really - that long? Hmm, interesting, I hadn't checked in a while. Sounds like they plan to be out of inventory EoQ.
US: 2-3 weeks. Same.
LHD EU: November (wow, they really expect to be literally out of inventory)
RHD EU: November (same!)
China: October (not sure whether that means early or late October... early would mean some inventory left, late would mean none. Probably "little left" so that they can get away with either)
Ulmo
Active Member
It's been a delicate balance to allow competition to catch up while paying for massive startup costs during an onslaught of massive attacks attempting to kill the company. My theory for years has been that Elon has been allowing the product to be semi-cheesy to give the competition room to introduce non-cheesy cars, and at the same time manipulate the psychology of his potential customers to overvalue the reasons to buy the cars just enough to accept the cheesiness**, in a sort of perfect combination to have Tesla succeed and allow others to catch up at the same time. Since that strategy has been both disgusting, manipulative, and really brilliantly executed, I had kept back from mentioning the full body of that opinion of mine for all this time. However, I have mentioned many of its components before, sometimes while voicing disagreements or opinions, and I'm sure some of you got tired of hearing me say those things. Since I said my part, I've tried to be more quiet about them to most degrees. Now that the competition actually is catching up*, I thought it was safe for me to reveal the whole theory all at once, for the record. But, it's just a theory. Me being outside and looking in not knowing, to me it is as likely intentional hindsight support of what works maybe due to lack of resources or effort or mistakes as it could be intentional foresight into a grand plan to coax everyone into place, and it is also likely that no thought went into it at all, and that's just how they are. However, we know for sure it was always the intent of Tesla with Musk at least to do good enough while coaxing everyone into place, so my theory, while just theoretical, is necessarily very close to what they've definitely been doing all along (with Musk anyway).
* By "catching up", I mean that they have a rat's ass chance in hell to not just disappear, like a really good chance (of course with a nice EV lineup). No promises.
** Luckily, there's plenty of people for which this particular purchase didn't highly offend them. Not 100%, but a lot, such as upgrades from cheesier cars so it doesn't hurt as bad, nice lives where that cheesiness doesn't show up or actually matter (such as shorter drives, nicer roads, better appointed homes and work places that offer everything the car doesn't), body shapes that actually fit in the cars that they can afford, etc.
* By "catching up", I mean that they have a rat's ass chance in hell to not just disappear, like a really good chance (of course with a nice EV lineup). No promises.
** Luckily, there's plenty of people for which this particular purchase didn't highly offend them. Not 100%, but a lot, such as upgrades from cheesier cars so it doesn't hurt as bad, nice lives where that cheesiness doesn't show up or actually matter (such as shorter drives, nicer roads, better appointed homes and work places that offer everything the car doesn't), body shapes that actually fit in the cars that they can afford, etc.
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May I suggest you or Karen challenge Rob@Jalopnik where he repeatedly claims that Tesla was completely stripped to bare-bones and Porsche was a complete production vehicle.
He keeps repeating this in his article and comments.
Yes, I change my estimates when the data changes. Below you can see how my Q3 estimate has increased by 9,000 units. The same happened in the past. I look at the data, the data looks different and I update my estimate. On Twitter people regularly ask me why I changed a specific estimate and I happily explain the reasons. I'm not sure what your problem is. I have always released my final estimate on the last day of the quarter since Tesla started making the Model 3 and I have always changed my estimates throughout the quarter until the last day.
Ulmo
Active Member
They finally cleaned the messes off the roof. That's new. I'm very curious what's up inside! They are keeping kind of mum?
Yes, I change my estimates when the data changes. Below you can see how my Q3 estimate has increased by 9,000 units. The same happened in the past. I look at the data, the data looks different and I update my estimate. On Twitter people regularly ask me why I changed a specific estimate and I happily explain the reasons. I'm not sure what your problem is. I have always released my final estimate on the last day of the quarter since Tesla started making the Model 3 and I have always changed my estimates throughout the quarter until the last day.
I have an issue with you patting yourself on the back for getting things right when you got them horribly wrong and people (thankfully not me) listened to you and based investments on your horribly wrong numbers. And I don't want people falling for your corrected "Oh look I got it right - see, I'm a trustworthy prognosticator!" portrayal without knowing the fact that you actually got things horribly wrong, based on a bogus hypothesis (which you'll probably repeat yet again in Q4), and only fixed your wrong numbers each quarter when proven wrong by the data flowing in.
What do I want? I want you to own up to your mistakes, and the erroneous hypotheses that led to them, rather than pretending that it's all okay because you fixed your numbers once proven wrong. I own up to my mistakes (for example, trusting AlphaHat in Q1 over InsideEVs). You should do the same.
As of yesterday the Devon, PA (Philadelphia) store had substantial inventory, almost all 3's. It looks like this will be the first time they will have substantial inventory at the end of a quarter. Hopefully the story is that increased production has enabled Tesla to reduce the domestic wave and maintain inventory to fill many orders quickly throughout the quarter.
Anyone can "predict" accurate estimates after the numbers are released. I can 'predict" with good precision what the SP was last Friday
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Ulmo
Active Member
Most trends have some local surges and valleys. Metaphorically I give some terrible examples like Darwin's evolution with its leaps and bounds, or the stock price with its ups and downs. You could look at resonating artifacts as they interact: local economy, local weather, local deliveries due to Tesla factory phases, a banker went on vacation, network effect, the edge of town so the network effect has to change shape and the time and quantity components would be of course different, dark weather so the network effect works different, etc. One really interesting way network effect hits nonlinear situations is across social circle boundaries; while Facebook probably lubricated that enough to erase many of those boundaries, there's got to be some strong nonlinear effects from that anyway (some because of Facebook, and some despite it). I wonder how much Tesla spends on Facebook psychological programming (which is part of their advertising budget); could be 0, could be nonzero (I see many people driving around Silicon Valley with factory plates; we have no idea how they could hide that product "research" -- oh, there's an idea right there, one well known to computer programmers already, and what most of them would assume is the system). I would expect Tesla's market share to have many little undulations as it overall rises. I half expect to see a FUDster standing on the edge of town declaring that Tesla is going bankrupt since they didn't see any more cars sold to cows in the cow pastures.
To be fair, he can only report the information he receives. If he were provided the shots showing passenger seats and interior trim, I expect he would update his reporting. (Informing, not challenging)
https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happened-with-teslas-ambitious-first-attempt-1838221405
He is reporting with complete authority leaving no room for doubt. Or he chooses to look only at information that confirms his bias, which we all know he has.
I made a reply, but it's stuck in the pending queue (probably because it includes pictures)? Maybe I should have just linked to the pictures.
Pras
Member
Exactly. People will not pay top dollars for such high uncertainty.
I think Troy should put a disclaimer at the start of the quarter that his numbers can be off by +/- 15K. He can then say that as time passes his uncertainty buffer should reduce gradually. Many forecasters instead of providing point estimates prefer giving a range. Totally acceptable.
Maybe you are confusing me with somebody else. I provide the estimates for free and I post them on Twitter. All my spreadsheet projects are also publicly accessible. In addition to the projects I mentioned, I also have a Tesla Battery Survey here and a Tesla Range Table here. I'm trying to be helpful to the community.
It doesn't look like you have read my estimates. Check out my first est here in Q3. There is already lots of warning and lots of transparency.
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I don't see that at all from the article (Twitter may be different). He is saying where the information is coming from and even calls out that it is not as solid as usual:
What do you find “semi-cheesy” about Tesla’s products?
If anything, Elon is a bit of a perfectionist and I highly doubt that any “cheesiness” is intentional. Building a company and products from the ground up necessarily means that there will be compromises. They could not have made a P100D back in 2012.
Pras
Member
Ok it didn’t come out nicely. So, my apologies. I do appreciate the work you do and I use it myself. So I appreciate it. The point was about adding disclaimer related to the uncertainty in early quarter estimates. Yes you do say your current estimate will get updated and it does that, so what is the point of early estimate? Why not wait till there is enough confidence.
The reason is the last quarter cleantechnica reported on your early estimate, which was way conservative.
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