Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Pessimism is on the rise here, this can mean only one thing

100% needs to test $210 area once again. It’s a Tesla thing. Gets stuck in a trading channels and and tests support 40 times before uptrend forms. It is 100% controlled by day traders, swing traders, algos, and shorts. Great news causes the price to go up in the morning and then fade intraday. Even the slightest worry/rumor? Stock gets thrown off the building. It’s new trading channel is $210-$250. It will break the channel when Model Y is a reality

Great long term hold price tho

 

[MartinAustin]

OK I decided to buy 100,000 shares since it has fallen so low.

( j/k that wasn't me )

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To be objective, that line has been said over and over now.
And PV business is still not where Tesla should be in. Reselling Hanhwa Q 310-315 panels is not an optimistic business.

There's not a lot of money in making cars. This is an energy company, Elon has said so many times since the beginning. I'm not sure how people are invested in TSLA @ $175-375 share prices and expect significant appreciation simply by manufacturing cars. Cars that eliminate the need for so many cars no less!

Giving customers the ability to print and store all the energy they'll ever need is a big deal. People have made a lot of money in energy up to this point, the next phase should be fairly obvious.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I can't imagine how anyone would think the Solar City deal was good. I fail to see how it got approved.

As much as anyone can agree or disagree with the Solar City deal, it's impact on Tesla as a company and it's finances is completely mute at this point. Tesla has practically wound down all of Solar City operations.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

100% needs to test $210 area once again. It’s a Tesla thing. Gets stuck in a trading channels and and tests support 40 times before uptrend forms. It is 100% controlled by day traders, swing traders, algos, and shorts. Great news causes the price to go up in the morning and then fade intraday. Even the slightest worry/rumor? Stock gets thrown off the building. It’s new trading channel is $210-$250. It will break the channel when Model Y is a reality

I think any marginal amount of institutional investment break this thing out so long as the plan has no major hiccups in the next 3 quarters. This stock has weathered so many storms it's now pretty much immune. That investment should be coming.....aaaany minute now.

Sticking with my $236 close today

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There's not a lot of money in making cars. This is an energy company, Elon has said so many times since the beginning. I'm not sure how people are invested in TSLA @ $175-375 share prices and expect significant appreciation simply by manufacturing cars. Cars that eliminate the need for so many cars no less!

Giving customers the ability to print and store all the energy they'll ever need is a big deal. People have made a lot of money in energy up to this point, the next phase should be fairly obvious.

When it comes to cars and car sales, while there might not be that much money in sale of the car.....there is a lot of potential money on the software side. If Tesla starts showing feature complete by end of Q4 or Q1 and raises FSD price to say 7.5k 8k and the adoption of FSD increase because of the new features, it starts to get interesting

 

[SOULPEDL]

Contemplating buying $TSLA shares and reading everything here for an answer. I don't quite follow today's Options conversations but it sounds like folks are leveraging harder here? $650 for a buck, best of luck there.

Meanwhile, the stock isn't doing the usual comeback (today anyway) and just turned south even more. I have powder for one more shot out the barrel. But I also turn 59-1/2 in Jan and wouldn't mind some cash, so then I'd have to sell a bit prior. The orange-one comment reminded me that we could all just all go down together into this recession. So I'm sitting tight for now, but soooo tempting... and there's tomorrow.

I really think the whole reason there isn't a war right now between Saudi and Iran is fear of an oil price spike that would make EVs look even better. These are the same people I think, all tangled up in our screwed up foreign strategies. Still protecting oil interests, but scared and the world knows it. War is quite possible, despite USA attempt to control the world and protect oil. But not for one second did I consider selling out of fear, when all logic says this is the best thing on earth.

Someone buy Gretta a Model 3... to drive her to school next year with FSD. Best marketing ever.

 

[mongo]

"“If it weren’t for SolarCity, #TSLAQ wouldn’t exist,” says @TeslaCharts"

Well that seems accurate, all the short positions made to cut SolarCity access to funding transferred to TSLA during the acquisition.

I can't imagine how anyone would think the Solar City deal was good. I fail to see how it got approved.

As much as anyone can agree or disagree with the Solar City deal, it's impact on Tesla as a company and it's finances is completely mute at this point. Tesla has practically wound down all of Solar City operations.

The term is moot, not mute.
Not that it is moot, commercial scale solar is available via the Tesla web site along with residential, and the tile roof is now being installed. It may have taken longer than expected, but it is happening.
Generation, storage, consumption: three pillars of sustainable energy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well that seems accurate, all the short positions made to cut SolarCity access to funding transferred to TSLA during the acquisition.




The term is moot, not mute.
Not that it is moot, commercial scale solar is available via the Tesla web site along with residential, and the tile roof is now being installed. It may have taken longer than expected, but it is happening.
Generation, storage, consumption: three pillars of sustainable energy.

What I meant is the Solar City legacy business and the financial ramifications of how Solar City did deals in the past. Definitely not saying that the solar side of Tesla is moot

 

[deffu]

It's become undeniable(at least to me) that S&P inclusion is going to be needed to finally be done with this level of coordinated manipulation. There's simply too much money sitting on the sidelines that won't invest in Tesla until it's included in S&P. The available pool of those willing to invest or trade Tesla is a select few funds and individual billionaire investors who are long term investors, the well funded shorts and bears, and shady/corrupt Wall St hedge funds that have no issue with making the most money off of the wild swings in Tesla's stock price. I wish I could understand why long trade funds and individual investors aren't buying up any weakness in Tesla shares. Maybe, and most likely, they're tapped out on the amount of shares they can buy. Whatever the case is, their buying power is no match for the well funded shorts/bears and the shady Wall st funds that care more about day trading and using that to their fullest.

I'm really hoping Tesla shows profit in Q3 because the sooner we start the march back to 1-year profitability, the sooner the S&P inclusion. Q1's loss was big enough that there's zero chance for S&P inclusion after Q1 2020. Best we can hope for is Q3/Q4/Q1(2020) are enough to offset Q2's loss.

TSLA as a stock is hijacked by wall street hedge funds or should we call them scavengers. A lot of daytrading/swing trading going on. TSLA maket cap is ~10% of google. But SP*trading volume is about the same as google. any small moves in SP are magnified 10X in TSLA. TSLA nees to evolve to the next level to get rid of those wall street scumbags.

 

[Skryll]

Accumulation opportunity...assuming no recession and corresponding 20 to 30% market contraction. If so you will be rolling in opportunities, even as Tesla executes and continues to grow.

The latent market is bigger than tesla can satisfy anyways, largely untapped. A recession will force legacy car makers out of business and not affect tesla nearly as much. Less performance models compared to LR and SR+ will eat into the margin but I see more people getting rid of high maintence cost vehicles to go electric as the recession hits.

 

[traxila]

Pessimism is on the rise here, this can mean only one thing

That only works if the macros do not continue to get crushed. The repo market canary in the coal mine? Always some obscure market freezing up that no one knows about and BAM all of a sudden 2008.

We are in uncharted territories in many ways. Interest rates zero or negative on trillions in bonds. Where do you go from here as a central bank? This is really bad. But if you can float zero coupon bonds, why as a government would you not borrow trillions more to continue to fuel the economy. This is really good. I think.

Imagine someone offered an unlimited zero percent loan. What would you do?

Where does it end? Where can you hide? Crypto?

Do you want to hide?

At this point just sing "Always look on the bright side of life" and be done with it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well that seems accurate, all the short positions made to cut SolarCity access to funding transferred to TSLA during the acquisition.

The term is moot, not mute.
Not that it is moot, commercial scale solar is available via the Tesla web site along with residential, and the tile roof is now being installed. It may have taken longer than expected, but it is happening.
Generation, storage, consumption: three pillars of sustainable energy.

It is working, and we did buy Solar. Can't wait to hear how this is growing and how they project it going forward in the EC. Meanwhile, rental is a crazy good deal. Margins will likely suck, but watch this volume take off, eh.

 

[mongo]

What I meant is the Solar City legacy business and the financial ramifications of how Solar City did deals in the past. Definitely not saying that the solar side of Tesla is moot

Oh!
The part about everything being wound down confused me. You meant the preexisting SC stuff, gotcha!

 

[CyberDutchie]

WTF is going on with TSLA today, what bad new came out? Sorry I missed it...

 

[Fact Checking]

My two cents: today's TSLA trading has all the classic patterns of a TSLA bear raid so far:

• After triple witching day the derivatives force to set the TSLA stock price got significantly weaker, allowing the marking down (or up) of the price with much lower cost in terms of options market makers resisting against your move.
• There's been a marked uptick in social media Tesla FUD in recent days, with a well-coordinated selective leak of the plaintiff's side of the story for the Solar City lawsuit. The usual suspects jumped on it with big coordination. The false narrative has all the usual ingredients of the TSLAQ scam: "fraud", "SEC", "Musk" and "bankwuptcy".
• The NIO (near?) bankruptcy event that is unfolding, and the misleading "Tesla of China" characterization of NIO by the CNBC anchors who were pumping NIO for almost a year added fuel to the fire. I believe many retail shorts saw today's negative narrative as a confirmation of their Tesla bear thesis and wanted to take advantage of the 'high' TSLA prices to short some more.
  
• But retail longs are not selling TSLA, as approximated via Robinhood users holding:
• 
  
  
• As you can see in the rightmost tick that represents today's activity, Robinhood users are actually accumulating into this dip. There was slight selling of TSLA by about ~4% of Robinhood users in the recent rise from $220 levels to $245 levels in the past couple of weeks - but the response to today's dip was to buy. Millennial investors see through online propagated FUD with more skill and more experience than the average Wall Street investor ... For the record, the number of Robinhood TSLA holders is still near record levels.
  
• TSLA volume is still relatively low for such a price move, at slightly above the daily average which was low in recent weeks due to the annual summer doldrums, which suggests that institutional investors are probably not selling. (When they are selling they usually do so at once with 2x-3x the daily volume, with much of the volume early in the day - not spread out like it is today.)
• The volume chart shows typical patterns of shorts artificially marking down the price:
• 
  
  
• See those red candles with high volume at temporary bottoms? These "spikes" (or "icicles" in @Papafox's daily charts thread) are characteristic of past bear raids: seemingly "dumb" trades hypothesized to come from short sellers, either market orders or sell limit orders with the limit price below the current market price, which aggressively punch through relatively thin order book to break through key resistance levels and to mark down the price - followed up by more subtle sell-limit orders to cap recoveries and bounce-backs. Note that this spikes are likely not leveraged longs covering, according to the Robinhood data.
  
• Macros are lousy: the NASDAQ index is -1.3% today, which created a -3% baseline drop according to typical beta correlations TSLA is showing intraday. If the shorts piled on just another -4% to create today's -7% to the current $222 daily low levels.
  
• The $250 levels TSLA was eyeing in recent weeks is probably a psychological one to the shorts they don't want TSLA to cross - and which they probably also define as a good ceiling to short against.

I'd not be surprised to see the TSLA short interest increase from the current ~39 million to ~41 million in about 2-3 weeks when the NASDAQ short interest report for today's activities will be released. Conveniently that will be after the delivery report - so if shorts are speculating on bad deliveries, they might reduce their short positions on any negative reaction to the Q3 delivery report.

TL;DR: just another day in TSLA land as I see it, with the SEC asleep at the wheel.

Not advice.

 

[elasalle]

Ming Zhao on Twitter
$tsla store check suggests a surge in demand in September due to purchase tax exemption. $nio suffered from that due to poor but expensive product . $nio bad results not indicative of demand for Tesla cars.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It is working, and we did buy Solar. Can't wait to hear how this is growing and how they project it going forward in the EC. Meanwhile, rental is a crazy good deal. Margins will likely suck, but watch this volume take off, eh.

Energy over the next 24 months is going to be amazing. Tesla has set online pricing and rentals(in some areas). This is clunky as hell right now but EXACTLY what was needed.

Whoever scales first without a bloated 1-on-1 sales process will crush everyone else and get all that next phase business. Storage, microgrids, aggregation, etc...

 

[brian45011]

I'm really hoping Tesla shows profit in Q3 because the sooner we start the march back to 1-year profitability, the sooner the S&P inclusion. Q1's loss was big enough that there's zero chance for S&P inclusion after Q1 2020. Best we can hope for is Q3/Q4/Q1(2020) are enough to offset Q2's loss.

GAAP profit in 3Q18 was $311.5 million which will be replaced in the S&P 500 entry eligibility calculation by whatever net income is reported in late October/early November for 3Q19. How much profit are you hoping for?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It is working, and we did buy Solar. Can't wait to hear how this is growing and how they project it going forward in the EC. Meanwhile, rental is a crazy good deal. Margins will likely suck, but watch this volume take off, eh.


View attachment 458545

Mine is lost in communications/technical hell, with nobody apparently able to make my solar order actually show up in my Tesla account, leaving me with no way to move forward.