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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Today was all about short sellers trying to heap pressure on Tesla to settle the lawsuit. There's no way this suit would actually be successful in court. Shareholders knew about the potential conflicts of interest and they voted to approve. This is just about short sellers trying to make Tesla and Musk lose money and face in a settlement.

The idea that today had anything to do with Nio is crazy. A competitor failing is a good thing.
 
diversity
The more valuable diversity is the diversity of thought, not the diversity of culture. Elon knows that difference, too, having come from South Africa. I've often thought that as long as ITAR-concept barriers are put in place to avoid giving monarchs more power regarding the intel China factory will use, that it will be fine to let them have electric vehicle intellectual property, manufacturing, and products, since they can use cars too. That's pretty easy, considering that the tech necessary to make electric cars viable are not usually weapons-level intelligence. Although not a zero area of effort, it doesn't seem like a high cost to freedom to let China be privy to the success of Tesla vehicles, solar, and home storage. Also, since their factory is using local funds and local workers to build local resources into local resources for local users, I see it as neutral regarding import-export imbalances, which in today's major problems regarding that is considered quite a win.

This does open the door to the possibility in the future Tesla GF3 will try to export into areas that will hurt the local economies of those areas. I'm generically against that, but it would fall to the people of those areas to make certain the correct restrictions are in place to prevent that from being a problem. Right now, USA is suffering greatly from doing that wrong, but is directionally fixing that at the moment, and we need more fixing of that. As far as Tesla is concerned, they are correctly making cars for the USA market from the USA market, but also importing a bit too much from outside, but eventually I think that can even out. I also look forward to a time other continents can make for themselves with respect to Tesla models. The various European car markets are already going ahead with local production of EVs from competing manufacturers in Europe, so that's good. (It doesn't directly help Tesla, though.)

The world can use all the batteries it can get. Already Tesla has shifted the balance of batteries being made to USA greatly. More! I wonder what company will build a battery plant in USA next. I know if I were MbS, I'd be building a handful in KSA right now (underground and far from missile/drone reach). I'm surprised Norway doesn't have a bunch of battery plants already. Easy pickings for them. It's a cut-throat business with huge downside and longer term huge upside. They're some of the only places that can easily afford the downsides to make it to the long term. (Few battery manufacturing processes survive, and those that do are only enablers, not themselves profit centers. The enabling technologies allow for survival, not always riches direct from the solar, home batteries, and cars they make possible. But survival is a big win in the game of energy now that we are transitioning from mined fuels. We make it out the other side with clean energy we own and no one can take away without violence. Upon that, we are bathed in riches of plentiful life. It itself is just a means to an end, with some opportunities along the way but not necessarily a windfall.)
 
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BTW., there was a big spike up to $228.36 in after-hours trading:

upload_2019-9-24_22-32-11.png


It was marked down almost immediately, but it IMO it shows that there's no serious institutional sell pressure for the time being. (They'd be seriously present in the after-hours market with limit orders a couple of dollars above the closing price.)

But the other interesting thing I noticed is that while the Yahoo TSLA after-hours chart frequently shows spikes down, this spike up was filtered out for some reason until a minute ago, when the up-spike green candle appeared in the chart:

upload_2019-9-24_22-34-34.png


No macro event corresponded to that spike AFAICS.
 
There's not a lot of money in making cars. This is an energy company, Elon has said so many times since the beginning. I'm not sure how people are invested in TSLA @ $175-375 share prices and expect significant appreciation simply by manufacturing cars. Cars that eliminate the need for so many cars no less!

Giving customers the ability to print and store all the energy they'll ever need is a big deal. People have made a lot of money in energy up to this point, the next phase should be fairly obvious.
If Tesla can grow its auto sales while keeping margins reasonably high, then there is big profit potential. Tesla vehicles are more or less unique in the market, and Tesla has cost advantages.

On the other hand, Tesla's solar business mostly just sells commodity panels, in a highly competitive market. The solar roof is interesting, but volumes aren't yet high enough to be that noticeable.

Stationary energy storage seems like a key opportunity for Tesla, given Tesla's lead in batteries.

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that Tesla is primary a battery company. Batteries on wheels and batteries in stationary locations.
 
BTW., there was a big spike up to $228.36 in after-hours trading:

View attachment 458600

It was marked down almost immediately, but it IMO it shows that there's no serious institutional sell pressure for the time being. (They'd be seriously present in the after-hours market with limit orders a couple of dollars above the closing price.)

But the other interesting thing I noticed is that while the Yahoo TSLA after-hours chart frequently shows spikes down, this spike up was filtered out for some reason until a minute ago, when the up-spike green candle appeared in the chart:

View attachment 458601

No macro event corresponded to that spike AFAICS.

Pre-arranged trade? it is also shown on Nasdaq
 
BTW., there was a big spike up to $228.36 in after-hours trading:

View attachment 458600

It was marked down almost immediately, but it IMO it shows that there's no serious institutional sell pressure for the time being. (They'd be seriously present in the after-hours market with limit orders a couple of dollars above the closing price.)

But the other interesting thing I noticed is that while the Yahoo TSLA after-hours chart frequently shows spikes down, this spike up was filtered out for some reason until a minute ago, when the up-spike green candle appeared in the chart:

View attachment 458601

No macro event corresponded to that spike AFAICS.

This was likely an "out trade". That would be one in which there was some discrepancy in the original reporting, which was eventually resolved after regular market hours.
 
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Pre-arranged trade? it is also shown on Nasdaq

I don't think market makers bother with pre-arranging a sale of just ~2k of shares. It was either just a lack of sell interest in thin after-hours trading, or as @Curt Renz suggested an "out trade" that was done sometime during the day but became part of the tape only after hours.
 
Is this true?

Tesla Tumbles as Chinese Rival Nio Reports Terrible Quarter

If so, it seems like such a reaction is bogus: the near term problems in China just mean that they will have to respect people more. Respecting people more is a very profitable business. Just because certain leaders aren't going to make it out alive of such a prospect and their markets take a temporary readjustment period as a result doesn't mean that they won't come back wanting way more clean cars. Tesla might not make that many cars at first at the factory, but that factory itself is an example of them making things with their own materials for themselves, and that in itself will help their local economies, just as it has in USA. Furthermore, a ramp up in demand is just what the doctor ordered, given that they will have to ramp up GF3 anyway. GF3 is not going to drag Tesla down. GF3 will still become profitable at about the same time. It will just look different through the window of a jail cell than from the top of a skyscraper for the thieves at the top of the political structure in China; that's why they're ballyhooing about it now. It doesn't affect Tesla that much (sure, a bit here and there, but who knows the long term effect).
Today was all about short sellers trying to heap pressure on Tesla to settle the lawsuit. There's no way this suit would actually be successful in court. Shareholders knew about the potential conflicts of interest and they voted to approve. This is just about short sellers trying to make Tesla and Musk lose money and face in a settlement.

The idea that today had anything to do with Nio is crazy. A competitor failing is a good thing.
Ahh! That makes much more sense. Ok, no biggie. Yes, we knew there was trouble with $SCTY, but we weighed it, and it seemed like it was a family company they wanted to keep inside. Oh well. It turns out that being CEO of SpaceX really did suck life out of the Energy division of $TSLA.

This is the way I see it: Tesla is a more honest company if they can sell you the energy you need to drive your car around. That's a level of honesty the anti-Tesla trading people can't shake a stick at. Laugh in their shorties' faces. Notice that that is the thing they get most viscerally afraid of and mad about: the thing they hate most is that direct photovoltaic sun power and home batteries can be used to drive a car. Just say that to them and watch them go nuts. You'll hear "causes cancer" within like 3 minutes ... huge entertainment.
 
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If Tesla can grow its auto sales while keeping margins reasonably high, then there is big profit potential. Tesla vehicles are more or less unique in the market, and Tesla has cost advantages.

On the other hand, Tesla's solar business mostly just sells commodity panels, in a highly competitive market. The solar roof is interesting, but volumes aren't yet high enough to be that noticeable.

Stationary energy storage seems like a key opportunity for Tesla, given Tesla's lead in batteries.

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that Tesla is primary a battery company. Batteries on wheels and batteries in stationary locations.

Or, perhaps, primarily a battery packing company? To clarify for those not who are aware, Tesla does not currently make their own cells (although rumors say that they want to).


*As much as people here abhor TSLAQ, I've been against the SCTY acquisition from the beginning. So, every time it is mentioned, I like to note that selling cheap PV panels is a race to the bottom. I'm willing to bet solar roof will just end up being an expensed side project. That just cannot compete with dirt cheap shingles+PV.
 
Six months ago @ReflexFunds offered these spot-on observations about NIO, on March 6, when NIO closed at $8:

I was previously wishing Nio well, as for all EV startups.

Nio obviously have a far inferior product to Tesla in terms of quality and safety and also have far less vertical integration. Their business model is also basically just trying to copy what Tesla does. They do not even have their own auto factory, but at least they are manufacturing their own battery packs and motors, more valuable IP in the long run than auto assembly i think.

But I've now lost all respect for Nio management after yesterday's call. They announced they are cancelling their plans to build their own factory (they now plan to outsource manufacturing indefinitely). They also announced a forecast 50% QoQ reduction in volume in Q1 and said Q2 will also be weak. They blamed this in part on people waiting to get news on China's new EV subsidy program (which doesn't make any sense as everyone expects the subsidies to be cut significantly).

Rather than properly addressing these significant issues, Nio spent the majority of their call attacking Tesla and spreading significantly incorrect numbers, almost without exception. In particular they said Model 3 range is only 300km (in reality LR is close to 700km on Nio's NEDC standard) and that Model Y will not be a competitor because it will cost over $60k (Elon's tweet implies $38.5k, and China pricing may be lower given significantly lower production costs).

Mentions on Nio call: Tesla 8, Model 3 13, Model Y 11, Model X 3.

Today NIO was trading slightly above $2. Anyone here reading @ReflexFunds and having a NIO position could have unwound it in time. That was a really good call!
 
I can't imagine how anyone would think the Solar City deal was good. I fail to see how it got approved.
Only two things left:
1. Compliance with SUNY obligations at GF-2 in Buffalo.
2. Repaying old SCTY debt:
-$566 million matures in about six weeks
-There's about $1.5 billion of non-recourse debt with varying maturities and relatively high interest rates. Tesla can ill afford to default on SCTY's old non-recourse obligations if it ever expects to seek access to US capital markets going forward.​
Is the debt in 2.2 a cleanup call option or an obligation?
 
Today was all about short sellers trying to heap pressure on Tesla to settle the lawsuit. There's no way this suit would actually be successful in court. Shareholders knew about the potential conflicts of interest and they voted to approve. This is just about short sellers trying to make Tesla and Musk lose money and face in a settlement.

The idea that today had anything to do with Nio is crazy. A competitor failing is a good thing.

You give the monied market players more credit than I do. Many of them are complete idiots, the only reason they have a job is that they went to the right school or their dad knows someone. If they don't have a job it's because they inherited a sugar load of money from their grandpappy. I think Nio's troubles speak to these idiots in unimaginable ways. It confirms their beliefs that people don't want electric cars and that it's impossible to make them profitably.

While I agree that a competitor failing might give Tesla a leg up, Nio is not much of a competitor and the net effect on Tesla will be close to nil.
 
*As much as people here abhor TSLAQ, I've been against the SCTY acquisition from the beginning. So, every time it is mentioned, I like to note that selling cheap PV panels is a race to the bottom. I'm willing to bet solar roof will just end up being an expensed side project. That just cannot compete with dirt cheap shingles+PV.

Just like expensive, ridiculously marked-up premium smartphones from Apple cannot possibly compete against a billion cheap Android phones?

People care about how their roofs look - premium real estate projects care a lot about how roofs look and what green credentials they have.

So the question is not competition with cheap shingles+PV, but competition with other Solar Roof products.

By which I don't mean to imply that there cannot be low cost Solar Roof look-alikes and work-alikes that might crowd out Tesla - I'm just saying that your "shingles+PV" framing of the Solar Roof business model is fundamentally incorrect.
 
Six months ago @ReflexFunds offered these spot-on observations about NIO, on March 6, when NIO closed at $8:



Today NIO was trading slightly above $2. Anyone here reading @ReflexFunds and having a NIO position could have unwound it in time. That was a really good call!

It has been predicted that NIO's fate would be the same as KNDI ...
(Wall Street PUMP & DUMP)
 
Or, perhaps, primarily a battery packing company? To clarify for those not who are aware, Tesla does not currently make their own cells (although rumors say that they want to).


*As much as people here abhor TSLAQ, I've been against the SCTY acquisition from the beginning. So, every time it is mentioned, I like to note that selling cheap PV panels is a race to the bottom. I'm willing to bet solar roof will just end up being an expensed side project. That just cannot compete with dirt cheap shingles+PV.

Even if so, panels would be a loss leader (or profit neutral) for the storage business.
Tiles (a premium product) will be a profit center. (asphalt shingle vs ceramic tiles, both exist on the market)
 
It confirms their beliefs that people don't want electric cars and that it's impossible to make them profitably.

... as well as some public belief that EVs are doomed. If they wrote a story on the failure of NIO today, they could omit Tesla from the story and it feeds well for them. Ending it with "Is this the fate of Tesla as well?" I could see many believing that narrative and selling after opening up their trading platforms this morning.
 
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