Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Perfect Storm: Nio's losses, Shareholder Lawsuit, Plummeting Macros.


This was likely an "out trade". That would be one in which there was some discrepancy in the original reporting, which was eventually resolved after regular market hours.

While I'm not really doubting you, it would seem the system should be set up so there are essentially no discrepancies (extremely rare). You know, computers and all. Yesterday my intraday TSLA Schwab chart showed a big spike down mid-day during a 1-minute period (I think it was about $4). This showed up for about 20-30 minutes and then it vanished from updated charts.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OK, picked a price. Don't-think-I'll-get-it, but would hate-to-miss-it while I'm asleep. 50 Shares @ $215

 

[Krugerrand]

BTW., just to make it clear what Elon is doing on Twitter right now: Elon is poaching top NIO engineering talent, whose stock options have become worthless in the last year or so.

Fresh Tesla stock options on the other side, with TSLA still near 3-year lows, have a nice speculative upside option value.

Probably the only valuable asset NIO has at the moment are their engineers.

How many of those Nio engineers came from Tesla?

 

[Curt Renz]

While I'm not really doubting you, it would seem the system should be set up so there are essentially no discrepancies (extremely rare). You know, computers and all. Yesterday my intraday TSLA Schwab chart showed a big spike down mid-day during a 1-minute period (I think it was about $4). This showed up for about 20-30 minutes and then it vanished from updated charts.

The problem usually occurs when the two parties (or their brokers) report conflicting information to the clearing house. What you noticed could well have been the original occurrence of an out trade, or it could have been the result of its resolution. Or during after hours we may see the result of its resolution.

 

[kbM3]

That only works if the macros do not continue to get crushed. The repo market canary in the coal mine? Always some obscure market freezing up that no one knows about and BAM all of a sudden 2008.

We are in uncharted territories in many ways. Interest rates zero or negative on trillions in bonds. Where do you go from here as a central bank? This is really bad. But if you can float zero coupon bonds, why as a government would you not borrow trillions more to continue to fuel the economy. This is really good. I think.

Imagine someone offered an unlimited zero percent loan. What would you do?

Where does it end? Where can you hide? Crypto?

Do you want to hide?

At this point just sing "Always look on the bright side of life" and be done with it.

2008 was a once in a century event, so saying “bam all of a sudden it’s 2008 again”, does not make sense to me.

 

[StealthP3D]

The problem usually occurs when the two parties (or their brokers) report conflicting information to the clearing house. What you noticed could well have been the original occurrence of an out trade, or it could have been the result of its resolution. Or during after hours we may see the result of its resolution.

I don't know what goes on behind the curtain but shouldn't the exchange be in control of the trades? In other words, the transaction happens when the exchange matches a willing buyer and seller?

It looks like these "mistakes" could be purposefully done to help maintain the momentum in the desired direction by misreporting trade specifics?

 

[Curt Renz]

I don't know what goes on behind the curtain but shouldn't the exchange be in control of the trades? In other words, the transaction happens when the exchange matches a willing buyer and seller?

It looks like these "mistakes" could be purposefully done to help maintain the momentum in the desired direction by misreporting trade specifics?

Trades can involve two different exchanges or even skip the exchanges. Ultimately, they are reported to a clearing house. Occasionally the clearing house discovers a discrepancy and seeks to resolve it. Such discrepancies have long occurred, and computers have not yet completely eliminated them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wild card will be Q1 2020. Hopefully they can be FSD feature complete by end of Q1 2020 so they can recognize majority of FSD revenue. If I'm not mistaken, they just have to be feature complete correct? They can still require driver attention while using features and still collect on all that deferred revenue correct? Someone feel to free to correct me if I'm wrong

Elon said during the 2019Q2 Conf. call that 2020Q1 would be tough. We'll need a v.strong 2019Q4 to offset that, and I do think we'll get it with ~7K/wk Model 3 production.

I still say Model S is the wild card (X seems to have recovered). So how's that hotlap at the Nürburgring looking, Elon? We need some excitement up in here!

Cheers!

 

[Foghat]

The financial news calls Tesla only an electric car market company to minimize Tesla when they beat ice in auto sales, then lumps Tesla in with “slumping global auto sales” to scare off investors.

They try so hard, but not going to work. People understand you can’t hide the fact the shrinking horse and buggy trade is not how consumers look at Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

How many of those Nio engineers came from Tesla?

Few to none? Tesla hasn't done any engineering in China before, AFAIK. If they did anything before, it would only have been localization.

 

[larmor]

The financial news calls Tesla only an electric car market company to minimize Tesla when they beat ice in auto sales, then lumps Tesla in with “slumping global auto sales” to scare off investors.

They try so hard, but not going to work. People understand you can’t hide the fact the shrinking horse and buggy trade is not how consumers look at Tesla.

Heard an analogy the other day related to the above-- no one keeps a horse at home in case the car (ICE) breaks down. Transition to EVs coming faster than people (on CNBC) think. China car market is going to be very large with a middle and upper middle class that dawrfs the entire US population. Tesla might be wise to shift entire focus to China.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Where is is? Where is it? Ah!

It’s Time to Wait for Lower Prices on Tesla Stock
"With comparable vehicles from Ford, General Motors and Nio (NYSE:NIO), Motor Trend is behaving as if Tesla were still the only leading-edge electric vehicle manufacturer around, which is absolutely not the case in 2019”

Be sure to put David Moadel on your idiot list.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon said during the 2019Q2 Conf. call that 2020Q1 would be tough. We'll need a v.strong 2019Q4 to offset that, and I do think we'll get it with ~7K/wk Model 3 production.

Cheers!

Yeah I remember that but it was kinda unclear if he was talking about profits or sales and if it was sales, if it was in comparison to Q4 2019. Its honestly hard for me to see how Q1 will be that tough and its extremely hard to see a repeat of Q1 2019. Sure seasonality is an issue, but that's mostly in the US and even then, SR 3 is available this time around when it wasnt in Q1 2019. Plus they won't be short handed on 2170 cell production like they were in Q1 2019.The tax credit fall off shouldn't be nearly as bad from the one from Q4 2018-Q1 2019. In Q1 2020 Giga3 should be around 2-3k a week. That's 24,000 to 36,000 additional model 3's. Then add in that the FCA credits should start making a much bigger impact starting in 2020. Plus FSD feature complete deferred revenue

Idk just seems like an awful lot of good things that'll continue into Q1 2020.

 

[Unpilot]

Today sucked.

 

[capster]

How many of those Nio engineers came from Tesla?

12 3/4’s? No wait, that’s the answer to a different question.

 

[KarenRei]

I think it was a perfect storm of NIO, NASDAQ and the lawsuit in that order.

Questions about the lawsuit:

1) Isn't it against Musk and the board, not Tesla?
2) Wouldn't the liability, then, only be to Musk and the board, not Tesla?
3) Wouldn't the only impact on Tesla, then, be to make Musk and the board lose money, and by consequence, potentially have to sell shares in Tesla if the liability were high enough?
4) Given that Elison wasn't on the board then, isn't the only defendant who holds a large amount of Tesla Musk?
5) Given that, what does it matter that the rest of the board has to defend themselves?
6) Isn't there directors insurance anyway?

In short, is there any relevance at all to Tesla from the court ruling that the board has to defend itself, apart from a "gotcha"?

(I also seem to recall that the judge dismissed one motion of the plaintiffs too, although I can't seem to find anything about that)

 

[capster]

Just like expensive, ridiculously marked-up premium smartphones from Apple cannot possibly compete against a billion cheap Android phones?

People care about how their roofs look - premium real estate projects care a lot about how roofs look and what green credentials they have.

So the question is not competition with cheap shingles+PV, but competition with other Solar Roof products.

By which I don't mean to imply that there cannot be low cost Solar Roof look-alikes and work-alikes that might crowd out Tesla - I'm just saying that your "shingles+PV" framing of the Solar Roof business model is fundamentally incorrect.

I’ve been thinking about that slate-like solar roof tile Tesla showed. We’ll need a new roof and a replacement solar array (our installation is tiny by modern standards and old now too) in not that many years.

Although TSLA days like today are irksome, I’m quite comfortable continuing to hold.

And when TSLA gets to where I hope and expect it to be, we’ll easily be able to get that slate solar roof and it will look just so and very nice on our house.

 

[SarahsDad]

"Ten years from now you will be able to buy a horseless vehicle (EV) for what you would pay today for a wagon and a pair of horses (ICE). The money spent in the keep of the horses (on gas and ICE maintenance) will be saved and the danger to life (with AP) will be much reduced.”

- Thomas Edison (with my own parenthetic additions)

This quote and a lot of other similarities from this 1930 article:

Get A Horse! America’s Skepticism Toward the First Automobiles | The Saturday Evening Post

 

[Carl Raymond]

There's not a lot of money in making cars.

You are thinking of ICE cars. There’s billions to be made from EVs at 20% margin, with declining battery costs, for EV only makers who have no ICE baggage, who have built out a supercharger network and whose batteries are best in class.

Why haven’t we seen it yet? Insufficient scale.
When will scale be sufficient? Soon.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

With all this talk about solar being moot, why has Elons tweet a few months ago about solar roof production spooling up rapidly and hopefully reaching 1,000 roofs at the end of this (!) year getting so little attention? I know, Elon time and all. But think about it. He was not talking about individual tiles here (I still remember the video of a handful of employees carefully inspecting every tile and moving them from one table to another). He was talking about whole roofs! At, what, $40,000-50,000 each? That is the same as 1,000 Model 3s per week!