Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[davecolene0606]

Thanks so much for your care and concern. Foolishly, I tend to evaluate a document's informational value based on its content and not so much on the medium through which it is accessed. I was truly oblivious of that site's nefarious agenda and promise to refrain from linking it ever again.

Would you mind providing more complete data so we all can reach the correct conclusions?

Nothing wrong with the document and certainly not foolish to evaluate its individual content. Perhaps Adam Klasfeld (@Klasfeldreports) can point to the complete record.

Fire Away!

 

[KarenRei]

Nothing wrong with the document and certainly not foolish to evaluate its individual content. Perhaps Adam Klasfeld (@Klasfeldreports) can point to the complete record.

Fire Away!

For anyone who wants another reason to avoid Plainsite: Greenspan has been accused of using the website to doxx bulls, via things like comparing the time people access his site to when they post content about/from it, so he can get their IP addresses and request metadata.

He's a vengeful, spiteful person. Right now he's threatening to sue Bark Smeagol (a popular Twitter bull) after Bark complained that the FUDdy LA Times journalist who covers Tesla (Russ Mitchell) was donating to Greenspan. Based on the popular short conspiracy theory that we bulls are secretly part of a paid Tesla disinformation campaign.

Greenspan once raged against me because, and I kid you not, Fred from Electrek once cited me as a source of a story rather than Greenspan. As though I'm in charge of what Fred writes.

 

[kengchang]

Quote of the day, from the comment section of Jalopnik:

---
“...if I hammered the throttle, there was a tiny bit of hesitation before the electric thrusters shot the Taycan down the street.”

I think that’s called Turbo Lag.
---

Consumer Report would call that "Elegant acceleration"

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

To all stock accumulators: please refrain from pleas for further price drops (or for low prices to hold until a bank transfer or salary payment comes through). It is insensitive and selfish. I removed a few of these posts.

 

[Dutchie]

So just to make sure I understand the example correctly:

• Before Jan 1 2020 the expected price of a Model 3 for the next 5 years would be €50.000 + 5 x ~€830 = €54,150
• After Jan 1 2020 the expected price of a Model 3 for the next 5 years would be €50.000 + 5 x ~€2,155 = €60,775 (+12.2%)

Assuming that the 12.2% I calculated is correct, if we apply @neroden's demand pull forward model, sales should drop in the first two and a half months of Q1, and should start picking up in mid March to a more "steady state" flow of sales, which would probably be the levels of ~Q2'2019 I believe, but it's hard to tell.

Neroden's model worked pretty well in a number of cases, so I'd expect January and February sales to be particularly low, and this will be strengthened by the usual slow European winter season as well. Car sales usually pick up in April, as the weather gets better.

Do the tax savings only apply to business owners, or also to private citizens?

No, the tax mentioned is an additional income tax. Because the car is part of the employment package provided by the employer it is calculated as income. So the car is leased or bought by the employer for the employee to use. This has nothing to do with the sales tax.

Employers have also an incentive to provide employes with an EV compared to an ICE (apart from lower operational costs) as they can have an extra write off if you invest in green products (milieu investerings aftrek) so the incentive works both ways

 

[DFibRL8R]

For those feeling a bit down about the current valuation of TSLA, here's a nice article about Wawa, a convenience store with over 800 locations across Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Most have gas pumps.

Wawa Kicks Off Construction Of Vienna Location

Check out this quote from Brian Schaller, Wawa's senior vice president of real estate and fuel:

"Tesla electric chargers were chosen in place of the traditional gas pumps so the store could open in April 2020. Schaller says the process of opening the store would have taken longer if a gas station had been in the plans. Tesla chargers are already active at 20 Wawa sites."

Nice to see Tesla Superchargers being chosen over fuel pumps by a large corporate entity.

 

[larmor]

Pretty hilarious to see despite Nio's 25% plunge, that on a per dollar of revenue basis, Wall St still values Nio more than Tesla. Tesla's likely revenue for Q3 of 6.5 billion+ is 30x more than what Nio just reported of 218 million.....yet Tesla doesn't trade at the equivalent of a 64 billion market cap.

I only use revenue because well.....that's the most favorable comparison for Nio's sake lol. If you look at FCF, margins, sales growth, etc...the comparison is considerably worse.

Gotta love that wall st logic

The street is going to do everything it can to keep tesla away from a higher valuation. The street being anyone connected to or linked to direct competition or indirect competition or business which is threatened by tesla's growth. If tesla can do it, then others will follow. Nio is struggling, and the street loves that narrative.

So who is at risk with success at tesla:-- traditional automakers, gas stations, oil refineries, oil producers, countries who run on oil, and defense (weapons) industries that support and maintain the oil supply chain.

There is another group at risk with tesla success, and presumed pathway to success for other EVs: Human lungs and human brains... Human lungs don't do well with current emissions from ICE and human brains do not do well with carbon monoxide-- that damage can be seen on brain MRIs. The air we breathe does not get a seat or an equity stake in the market to shift people's priorities and valuation. That is unless with get to a Carbon impact market/equity...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For those feeling a bit down about the current valuation of TSLA, here's a nice article about Wawa, a convenience store with over 800 locations across Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Most have gas pumps.

Wawa Kicks Off Construction Of Vienna Location

Check out this quote from Brian Schaller, Wawa's senior vice president of real estate and fuel:

"Tesla electric chargers were chosen in place of the traditional gas pumps so the store could open in April 2020. Schaller says the process of opening the store would have taken longer if a gas station had been in the plans. Tesla chargers are already active at 20 Wawa sites."

Nice to see Tesla Superchargers being chosen over fuel pumps by a large corporate entity.

It's too late for Wawa, they're already way too deep into expanding their gas station model.

Starting about 10 years ago Wawa started buying up all the most premium locations, huge parcels of land, and put in "super-Wawas". Problem is, all the traffic and profit is dependant of gasoline.

A pivot to supercharging isn't a bad idea, but the volume of customers won't be nearly enough to justify the property expense. That and their hoagies have been utterly mediocre ever since they stopped slicing meats on-site.

Wawa will fold in about 2025.

 

[willow_hiller]

Greenspan has been accused of using the website to doxx bulls, via things like comparing the time people access his site to when they post content about/from it, so he can get their IP addresses and request metadata.

If they're doing that to any Europeans, that's a blatant violation of GDPR, which would carry a hefty financial penalty.

 

[acoste]

Quote of the day, from the comment section of Jalopnik:

---
“...if I hammered the throttle, there was a tiny bit of hesitation before the electric thrusters shot the Taycan down the street.”

I think that’s called Turbo Lag.
---

"when in “Range” mode, if I hammered the throttle, there was a tiny bit of hesitation before the electric thrusters shot the Taycan down the street."

 

[Causalien]

Pretty hilarious to see despite Nio's 25% plunge, that on a per dollar of revenue basis, Wall St still values Nio more than Tesla. Tesla's likely revenue for Q3 of 6.5 billion+ is 30x more than what Nio just reported of 218 million.....yet Tesla doesn't trade at the equivalent of a 64 billion market cap.

I only use revenue because well.....that's the most favorable comparison for Nio's sake lol. If you look at FCF, margins, sales growth, etc...the comparison is considerably worse.

Gotta love that wall st logic

Tesla is beyond the capabilities of venture capital now and venture capital tend to overpay so they can inflate the valuation after each round to eventually sell to greater fools.

I almost lost it when WeWork valuation came out. That corp is a good lesson on why founder scandals are huge detrimental to valuation. Tesla is most likely suffering for the same thing.

 

[brian45011]

As I understand it, you’re basing your conclusions on one side of the court case’s arguments. Wouldn’t that be premature, until you hear the other side?

There is good policy behind rules of procedure that allow Defendants the last word. The case is ineluctably alluring; and the more details about what transpired, the better.

I have not reached a conclusion but am troubled by what has been disclosed since the docket was partially un-sealed. My impression is that the Defendants are resisting the motions for all filings to be in the public domain without redactions and have asked for more time to respond with their arguments for confidentiality.

For anyone attempting quantitative evaluation of TSLA's financial statements and condition, it is also frustrating that key provisions of material contracts, such as those with Panasonic, the Warehouse Line, Asset Backed Creditors, regulatory credit purchasers, etc. are either heavily redacted or not disclosed at all.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wawa Kicks Off Construction Of Vienna Location

Check out this quote from Brian Schaller, Wawa's senior vice president of real estate and fuel:

"Tesla electric chargers were chosen in place of the traditional gas pumps so the store could open in April 2020. Schaller says the process of opening the store would have taken longer if a gas station had been in the plans. Tesla chargers are already active at 20 Wawa sites."

Nice to see Tesla Superchargers being chosen over fuel pumps by a large corporate entity.

Living in the Western U.S, I wasn't aware of Wawa. But after checking them out, I think it's a huge vote of confidence in Tesla (considering that Superchargers can only charge Teslas). According to Wawa their core values are:

-Value people
-Delight customers
-Do the right thing
-Do things right
-Embrace change
-Passion for winning

They were founded in 1803 as an iron foundry, started processing milk in 1902 and, when home milk delivery waned in the 1960s, they opened their first store in 1964. They have since grown to six states and Washington D.C. Many of their locations have free air (for tires) even if you don't purchase gas.

The fact that they are now opening stores with only Tesla Superchargers to fill up with tells me they see the writing on the wall and don't want to invest in gasoline or diesel infrastructure. Not only is this a great vote of confidence in Tesla's future, it also is very good for Tesla in that it expands the Supercharger network without Tesla having to pay for it. More SC'ing locations can only increase the potential customer base and give Tesla another big leg up on the competition.

Unfortunately, Wawa is a privately held company so it wouldn't be easy to invest in them. Based on their current regional success and pace of new location openings, I would like to see a big investor fund their expansion to the West. Sounds like a very good opportunity.

 

[acoste]

You mean like Americans building German cars?

Ford is there too. Since both Opel (belongs to Peugeot now) and Ford have lower price range than VW and the luxury brands, they are popular.

 

[Rotte]

It's too late for Wawa, they're already way too deep into expanding their gas station model.

Starting about 10 years ago Wawa started buying up all the most premium locations, huge parcels of land, and put in "super-Wawas". Problem is, all the traffic and profit is dependant of gasoline.

A pivot to supercharging isn't a bad idea, but the volume of customers won't be nearly enough to justify the property expense. That and their hoagies have been utterly mediocre ever since they stopped slicing meats on-site.

Wawa will fold in about 2025.

Actually "gas stations" barely show a profit from selling gas, it just gets the customers to their stores where they make money selling beer, smokes, fast food, etc. Movie theaters have a similar model, they don't make any money from ticket sales but make money selling high priced popcorn, drinks and other snacks.

 

[kbM3]

"when in “Range” mode, if I hammered the throttle, there was a tiny bit of hesitation before the electric thrusters shot the Taycan down the street."

Range mode? Is that where they hamstring the performance in order to try and match Tesla’s cheapest offering (SR+) range?

 

[anthonyj]

Truck hauling electric vehicles catches fire on I-80 near Carlin

Tons of Teslas exploded the truck. Teslas are dangerous. Police are investigating to see if Autopilot was engaged.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Driver of Tesla faired better than the two people in the Honda it hit/ destroyed (passenger is deceased, driver is critcal). A Tesla Model 3 is a safe car, for its occupants.

It looks like the Tesla probably hit the Honda from the side. Not a fair fight.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Truck hauling electric vehicles catches fire on I-80 near Carlin

Tons of Teslas exploded the truck. Teslas are dangerous. Police are investigating to see if Autopilot was engaged.

They definitely weren't Tesla's or that would have been in the headline.

 

[NicoV]

They're already nearly 400 per day. God I love you, Netherlands!

I saw on FB they even have a shuttle service from the Amsterdam Sloterdijk station to the place (docks?) where they deliver the cars. Seems to be very well organized (people are happy with the delivery experience in Amsterdam), not the usual last minute improvisation we’re used to from Tesla.