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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Hmmm, if the S & X line is eventually re-purposed, the market price for our used MS's and MX's is gonna jump up, right? The "Classic" car syndrome...

It's hard to tell what will become a classic early on. I do have a very strong feeling that the original Roadsters will be, however. Limited supply, very meaningful, a vehicle that was at the time an aspirational car for many but which they couldn't afford, etc. It has all the signs.
 
If we want to set a new 2 1/4 month low, $294,09 is the number to beat.

However, the stock seems to have (at least momentarily) bottomed out - back up to 2 points over the daily low, playing with going back over $300.
 
Really odd that Consumer Reports never posted consumer satisfaction numbers (as far as I can tell) in 2018. Normally they post in mid to late December.

Tesla satisfaction numbers so high they can't believe them. Double and triple checking :D

For 2017 CR car brand satisfaction ratings local news did a story. It was all about porsche. They even showed a graphic with Tesla in #1 spot but did not mention it at all. I live in a state that relies on oil for its economy, which might explain it.
 
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There are 13 weeks per quarter. "Production quarter" is a fictitious term.

Search | Investopedia

Moody's guidance stated that creditors were reasonable in expecting 10k Model 3s per week in 2018. It's unclear why 5k/week is meaningful at this stage.

Finally, it's worth stressing that Tesla's lifetime Model 3 production and lifetime Model 3 deliveries are about 8k apart, with only 1k in transit. Seems about 7k Model 3s are inventory and do not have a buyer.

Stock price is likely to continue falling until the EU homologation risks are eliminated.
When talking about what tesla is capable of for weekly production, you have to use math, and count those weeks that have production.

Remember, his point was that therre wasn't anywhere in the quarter they averaged 5k/wk... with not supporting evidence that's true that I can see.

Also: as I mentioned, holiday shutdown. Not all quarters are equal.
 
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@Krugerrand Model S and X serve Tesla's mission by displacing sales of large/premium ICE sedans and SUVs (which tend to be gas hogs) and other ICE vehicles and also generate tons of cash. Their days "are not numbered" -- they're not going anywhere.

Not sure why people keep clinging to that thought. I believe S and X days are numbered.

Whether/when Tesla will expand S/X production beyond 100,000 per year is another question. They have a lot on their plate right now so who knows .... Presumably we'll get an update for 2019 with the upcoming ER -- I'd be surprised if they forecast production significantly above 100K this year.
 
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He will blame the polls.

He did not but instead admitted to have been wrong in Q4 with his latest down adjustments but to give him credit before he was right on track.

However I stand to my comment that you have to have a very solid statistically baseline in order to make calculations that work and are reliable. This is BTW also true for the calculation which I have seen from FC which seems on a first glance very simple. I did not look deeper into it as I said its not a matter for me that is important for the long term success. But if its just what I have seen so far than I would question if it wasn't more a lucky punch than a confirmed method that will give good results for the quarters to come. Sorry for putting that grain of salt out...

Finally as we all have seen yesterday even if the calculations here are partly pretty accurate numbers it is detached from stock price movements and what media and analysts make investors to believe.I never heard anything about 90k plus so its again a coup that we seen.

Important to notice that shorts alone cannot manipulate the SP unless longs start selling because they believe in the FUD. Yesterday was again an example how that works. If bulls interpret the numbers correctly shorts sell activity is just absorbed and they lose money that day. Their manipulation is more intended to create the impression that other longs are selling which is why they do pre market selling to create an early dip but the market determines the price and not the shorts throughout the day.

Anyway, I am very happy with the numbers we have seen as they confirm my believe in the growth and profitability. Some days its better to disregard the SP. Sad that positive results are not seen as such yet.
 
Just remember, uptick does not apply to derivatives. enough option sellers (or put buyers) can produce enough similar pressure to the underlying equity and will simply produce SELLERs of the equity if not shorts.
So N.B. watch PUT volume when uptick rule is in effect. Thanks. :cool:

From link: 1/4/2019 expiry Options as of 1/3/2019 10:14:44 AM
  • Highest Put Strike: 300.0
  • Highest Put Volume: 907
UPDATE: As of 1/3/2019 11:00:38 AM
  • Highest Put Strike: 300.0
  • Highest Put Volume: 2247
So that's 1,340 more net PUT contracts in 45 min of trading, representing about 134,000 shares. Trading continues at about 1M shares per hour, sitting at 3.4M shares at 11:30 EST.

That represents open interest of about 90,700 shares of TSLA. Which is not too much on a day with over 1.7 M shares already traded.

TSLA.Options.Vol.Exp1-4-19.thu10-14am.png



I think the simpler explanation today is we slowly marched down to test yesterday's low, and now are in a slow march upward, roundly following the NASDAQ-100 index.

Tomorrow, expect at least the MMD, IMHO. But YMMV. What do you think? TIA. CYA! :D

Cheers!
 
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BTW., while I agree with most of your post, I don't think that's true:
  • Tesla has at least one GWh scale storage contract.
  • Adding battery storage that has 10+ years of expected life time is a no-brainer upgrade and investment for wind farms: wind peaks in the night when power use is the lowest, so a lot of that power can only be sold at very low prices. With battery storage that peak nightly energy can be transformed into a peaker plant in essence, selling the energy for 10-20 times as much money ... Also there will be a gold rush effect: the first ones to do this will earn a lot from this.
  • If only there was a company selling GWhs worth of battery capacity at reasonable prices. ;)
  • Note that Big Oil will have limited ability to run interference: power companies are strategic long term allies of Tesla, not of the Big Oil/Coal price cartel. Tesla will free power companies from Big Oil and give them energy independence and self-determination. That's a well established, several trillion dollars worth industry to transform, right there, available to the first mover.
The Australian battery project created quite a stir in the power industry. I agree with @KarenRei that Tesla Energy is one of this year's dark horses. (The other one is FSD.)

With the containerized "Megapack" Tesla is well positioned to push out as many of them as there's excess cell capacity at the Gigafactory:
Tesla-Megapack-e1544832509756.jpg


But yeah, no way to model this, yet, but I agree with Elon and JB that Tesla Energy is going to outgrow the Tesla automotive side within a couple of years.
you mean -->this battery<--? $50,000,000 savings in --->ONE<-- year!!!!
This isn't a black swan, it's more "neighborhood nuclear superiority"
Tesla big battery turns one, celebrates $50 million in grid savings
 
@Krugerrand Model S and X serve Tesla's mission by displacing sales of large/premium ICE sedans and SUVs (which tend to be gas hogs) and other ICE vehicles and also generate tons of cash. Their days "are not numbered" -- they're not going anywhere.

Whether/when Tesla will expand S/X production beyond 100,000 per year is another question. They have a lot on their plate right now so who knows .... Presumably we'll get an update for 2019 on the upcoming ER -- I'd be surprised if they forecast production significantly above 100K this year.

All marketing strings have not yet been pulled. Even a modest amount of advertising could greatly increase Tesla visibility, while providing the public with the necessary education about the advantages of electric vehicles and dispelling FUD. Even one Super Bowl ad might do the trick. If Tesla has become capable of significantly ramping up Model S & X production, then activating unused demand levers may be justified.
 
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Are you kidding? Design FSD to deal with earthquake? Why exclude volcanic eruption? Ok not very often but tornados? Coastal flooding? Hurricanes, acts of terrorism? All more common
Not kidding at all. My expectation is for FSD to safely stop in scenarios of natural disasters. Or if traffic light cannot be read conclusively, then find a way to not get into accidents with oncoming traffic. Same thing a person would do. My point is simply that all scenarios need tested and some of them will not be tested in a regular day-to-day driving by Beta testers.
 
Not kidding at all. My expectation is for FSD to safely stop in scenarios of natural disasters. Or if traffic light cannot be read conclusively, then find a way to not get into accidents with oncoming traffic. Same thing a person would do. My point is simply that all scenarios need tested and some of them will not be tested in a regular day-to-day driving by Beta testers.
What about random drive by shooters in the cities? Will cars be expected to take evasive action or return fire?
 
If we want to set a new 2 1/4 month low, $294,09 is the number to beat.


However, the stock seems to have (at least momentarily) bottomed out - back up to 2 points over the daily low, playing with going back over $300.

Sadly, that is not the way I would analyze technicals or price action. Sure, 2 months and ABOUT a week, you can get to 290$, but 2 months and BETWEEN 1 and 2 weeks, and well it's 10% below that, and 2 months and THREE weeks back we're into the $250's


There is a lot of air under 294 and it's very recent.

Update: I tried to post this really nearly over an HOUR ago. WHAT is up with this website?
 
Not kidding at all. My expectation is for FSD to safely stop in scenarios of natural disasters. Or if traffic light cannot be read conclusively, then find a way to not get into accidents with oncoming traffic. Same thing a person would do. My point is simply that all scenarios need tested and some of them will not be tested in a regular day-to-day driving by Beta testers.

I was thinking about this the other day (while letting Autopilot drive) and I think Tesla has an advantage in that it can simulate these things in programming and have the car react to them- think a virtual driving "game" for the autopilot to experience things it would rarely/never in real life. A computer doesn't care if it is real or simulated-it's simply going to react the way it is programmed.

Theoretically Autopilot could have the ability to react to the Red Dragon's burst of flame by slamming on the brakes causing Smaug to lead the fleeing car to much and miss! (Indulge me a little, my son and I just finished reading The Hobbit! :D) Would it ever encounter this in real life? I hope not! However, it could still have the correct response stored in its memory banks and react instantly, much how professional race car drivers react subconsciously on the track to instant hazards.
 
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