Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Open Interest]

let the price come to YOU, don't chase it. Overall markets are going lower in the near term. TSLA will not be immune.

True, but easier said than done at these levels!

 

[kyzhk]

I sold one put short when we were around $309 today.
I'm thinking about selling couple more tomorrow taking advantage of this AAPL fiasco.
I'll need to borrow some money from HLOC to secure those puts.

Sight.
So much about staying un-leveraged. Well, I did last, like, a month, or so... It was glorious and unencumbered, even through Christmas crash...
I'm having trouble staying away now that I expect close to 1B free cash flow, and in general appreciate and agree with estimates/numbers that @ReflexFunds provided

You seemed quite new to option market. Just make sure you have enough liquidity to be exercised the put / buy it back if it's likely that the put will be in the money.

 

[Open Interest]

Wth is MOMO?

Momentum

 

[oneday]

This was all pretty much before we got the Model 3. And service has taken a hit across the board due to overwhelming the service side with Model 3 purchases and manufacturing deficiencies. I can't imagine where that doesn't make it's way into customer satisfaction data overall. We'll see.

Yes, but at the end of the day all of those customers are still driving a Tesla. This makes a big difference.

 

[Curt Renz]

...Seems about 7k Model 3s are inventory and do not have a buyer....

As I've posted in both the 2018 and 2019 Tesla investor forums, last week a knowledgeable Tesla sales agent explained to me that from now on most Model 3's will be sold from inventory. Only if a customer requests a configuration not in inventory will it be made-to-order in Fremont. This policy works best for the Model 3 which is now produced in much larger quantities than Models S &X. It should attract non-early-adopters, especially those who want a new car right away.

Perhaps you are unaware that the more established automakers sell their cars to franchised middlemen who place them in inventory until they find retail buyers.

 

[EVNow]

This was all pretty much before we got the Model 3. And service has taken a hit across the board due to overwhelming the service side with Model 3 purchases and manufacturing deficiencies. I can't imagine where that doesn't make it's way into customer satisfaction data overall. We'll see.

But us lowly 3 owners have lower expectations - compared to folks who spent 100k+.

 

[tivoboy]

Yes, but at the end of the day all of those customers are still driving a Tesla. This makes a big difference.

totally and absolutely (although, people have sold their teslas and model 3's)

But, if historically the "would you buy another tesla" question was answered YES by over 97% of respondents (I don't have the number handy but it's pretty close), that number is only going to go DOWN. I'm just putting the warning out there. It will be a real data point, and the FUDsters out there will of course put out the headline that "TELSA CUSTOMER SATISFACTION FALLS!" and there will be some numerical truth to it. They won't report on the fact that it will still be probably 10% nominal points above ANY other manufacturer, just that it falls.

So, I'm telling you what the future is going to be. Take that into your calculus for what events can occur based on knowing that future.

 

[tivoboy]

But us lowly 3 owners have lower expectations - compared to folks who spent 100k+.

And you're actually making my point. There are any number of Model S and X owners who are NOT happy with the fact that they can't get service appts, or that there are no loaner Teslas when putting in a car for service, or that it now takes 3 days to do what might have been 1 day or intra-day before. They may still love their CAR, but the overall experience for them will have changed - for some, and that will show up in the customer satisfaction data.

 

[Nocturnal]

totally and absolutely (although, people have sold their teslas and model 3's)

But, if historically the "would you buy another tesla" question was answered YES by over 97% of respondents (I don't have the number handy but it's pretty close), that number is only going to go DOWN. I'm just putting the warning out there. It will be a real data point, and the FUDsters out there will of course put out the headline that "TELSA CUSTOMER SATISFACTION FALLS!" and there will be some numerical truth to it. They won't report on the fact that it will still be probably 10% nominal points above ANY other manufacturer, just that it falls.

So, I'm telling you what the future is going to be. Take that into your calculus for what events can occur based on knowing that future.

Of course. It's not like a 97% positive response can realistically increase. A vehicle could literally be magical and perfect and there would still be some weirdos that didn't like how it got dirty one day and swear the brand off forever.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I genuinely belive people still can not comprehend Musk, for any other company to drop prices would be seen as getting rid of hard to shift inventory. People can not fathom if production costs reduce these savings are then passed on to the consumer, they think a company should squeeze there customers dry!

I'm sure you are right there are many who can't comprehend Musk. However it doesn't remotely follow that the 2K price drop is because Tesla would want higher profits due to reduced production costs to reduce prices for their cars rather than benefit their bottom line. I suspect dropping prices by 2K is to avoid reduced sales of M3 due to reduction of tax credit, during the 1 - 3 months it will take for European and Chinese sales to soak up further increases in production.
While many who are ready to purchase a $45 - 65K car shouldn't be deterred by a few thousand more or less, I suppose they figure if even 10% are, it's worth dropping price 2K to keep U.S. sales level until outside U.S. sales take off.

 

[printf42]

There will be 20 million shares traded at 270 soon

Which company?

 

[EVNow]

And you're actually making my point. There are any number of Model S and X owners who are NOT happy with the fact that they can't get service appts, or that there are no loaner Teslas when putting in a car for service, or that it now takes 3 days to do what might have been 1 day or intra-day before. They may still love their CAR, but the overall experience for them will have changed - for some, and that will show up in the customer satisfaction data.

But now there are a lot more of us than them (actually about 50/50).

 

[roblab]

But us lowly 3 owners have lower expectations - compared to folks who spent 100k+.

Some of us 3 owners also own an S. First off, my expectations were exceeded on both cars. There were no dings, scratches, or dents. Second off, I spent LESS than 100k on the S, just about double what I spent on the 3. If I had noticed any problems, most likely I would have let the service center deal with it, but they already had, and that may be why I use that service center rather than the closer one.

Maybe I had lower expectations on the 3, but I doubt it. Since I bought my first S my expectations have been high, with NO gas stations, NO pollution, NO noise, NO oil changes, NO filters, NO gear changing, LOTS of power, and LOTS of stares from nearby people. Best. Car. Ever. Nuff said.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone wants auto refreshing stream of TSLA tweets ? Mostly shorts - just a few longs. But fun to watch.

Hootsuite - Live Feed - 'TSLA'

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I think this is not possible, i hope I am wrong. But I somehow remember that somebody told that Tesla need at least 3 weeks to get numbers on the paper.

At least that. Remember that the 10-K (unlike the 10-Qs) has to go through external audit.

 

[EVMeister]

Ooooh look what's back.

 

[avoigt]

Several posters predicted this, in fact I think the logical thing would be for Tesla to prioritize China Model 3 deliveries, because:

• the lower China import tariffs are only valid for the first quarter for the time being. If Trump interferes again then Q2 tariffs could be higher.
• Plus in China they might want to front-load demand right now, and reduce supply in Q3/Q4 as the Shanghai Gigafactory starts building Model 3's.

So shipping Model 3's to China and Europe is the logical next step.

That makes sense although there are also some incentive that run out in EU like in Germany end of June so good reason to supply many cars to us..... I know I am selfish.....

I guess we should expect them to supply to both markets. Demand will be high and its a long waiting list too so they will find a way to balance.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Ooooh look what's back.

I come back to you now at the turning of the tide.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I come back to you now at the turning of the tide.

What a shocker.

 

[M3Rider]

I'm just putting the warning out there. It will be a real data point, and the FUDsters out there will of course put out the headline that "TELSA CUSTOMER SATISFACTION FALLS!" and there will be some numerical truth to it.

As far as real, didn't somebody say they don't verify whether you own a car or not?