Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Couldn't happen to a finer bunch of folks. You thought Wall St was bad ? They have been ruining the world for centuries.

The UK has had a sort of financial Dutch disease for a while now. The city's power has caused much of the rest of the British economy to get hollowed out in much the same way that happens to a petro-state economy. Manufacturing output in Britain is a little over $200 billion a year, about equal to Ohio and Indiana combined, or about 1/3rd of Germany. R&D spending in Britain now is on the lower end of western Europe.

Case in point; If you look at the GDP/head of western European metropolitan areas, London is very high, one of the highest, and Britain's other metro areas are some of the poorest outside of the southern Mediterranean.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Remember folks, up tick rule in effect, shorts can't drive TSLA down today, only longs can. AAPL may also hit the 10% trigger.

I expect accumulation based levelness until any capping volume is overwhelmed (but I'm an optimist)

Not yet, at least so far this morning:

Yesterday's close 157.92 * 0.9 = $142.12 SP to trigger uptick rule

Today's min. SP for AAPL: $142.81​

So no uptick rule in effect for AAPL yet. But they're holding up at $143.79 at 09:45 so may yet trigger the uptick rule.

Cheers!

Uptick rule should now be in effect for AAPL, since today's intraday low is now $142.08

APPL immediately started a steady shallow climb. Oh, those shortz...

Cheers!

 

[Sancho]

Elon loves to battle the shorts. Last quarter he moved up the earnings release date with very little notice. Perhaps this quarter he pushes the accountants to pull all nighters to release the Q4 numbers before the expiration of all those options on Jan 18?

That would be pyrotechnical.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon loves to battle the shorts. Last quarter he moved up the earnings release date with very little notice. Perhaps this quarter he pushes the accountants to pull all nighters to release the Q4 numbers before the expiration of all those options on Jan 18?

That would be pyrotechnical.

Would be nice after I lost 99% on my Jan 18 calls lol

 

[Nocturnal]

I know how expectations and Wall Street work but it's always surprising.
Tesla - "We sold more cars than last quarter, but not quite as many as we planned. "
Wall Street - "OMG, this is terrible news, your stock is now worth less than last quarter when you made fewer cars."

 

[M3Rider]

What about random drive by shooters in the cities? Will cars be expected to take evasive action or return fire?

In fact, an evasive action would be warranted in some cases. For example, you see a tornado coming straight at you along the road/highway. If there are no other cars around you, I would turn around and speed up in the opposite direction or seek shelter in a covered public garage. If the FSD simply stops, you might be worse off.
Or coastal flooding - you might want to be driving inland asap, so if FSD just stops and there is no steering wheel anymore in the car, you might be in a bigger trouble.

 

[AlexS]

Elon loves to battle the shorts. Last quarter he moved up the earnings release date with very little notice. Perhaps this quarter he pushes the accountants to pull all nighters to release the Q4 numbers before the expiration of all those options on Jan 18?

That would be pyrotechnical.

I think this is not possible, i hope I am wrong. But I somehow remember that somebody told that Tesla need at least 3 weeks to get numbers on the paper.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I know how expectations and Wall Street work but it's always surprising.
Tesla - "We sold more cars than last quarter, but not quite as many as we planned. "
Wall Street - "OMG, this is terrible news, your stock is now worth less than last quarter when you made fewer cars."

Thats actually a much more reasonable scenario than what actually happened:

Wall Street: “We expect Tesla to sell between 50,000 and 60,000 Model 3’s”

Tesla: “We sold 63,000 Model 3’s”

Wall Street: “We expected, and have always expected that Tesla would sell 65,000 Model 3’s. OMG, this is terrible news, your stock is now worth less than...”

 

[JRP3]

Keep missing the bottom but grabbed more at 302. FOMO in effect.

 

[Artful Dodger]

but the better chemistry may still allow them to increase range if they need to pull a demand lever and, more importantly, increase DC charging speed to whatever the Model 3 can do.

Model S/X DC fastcharging is limited by battery pack cooling, not by chemistry. The Model 3 cooling architecture is significantly improved.

Apparently, Tesla has made further improvements with the upcoming SR pack as well, both simplfying the design and improving cooling. That is soo like Tesla.

when SC V3 goes live - don`t be surprised if they say something like "all Model 3s and all the S/X produced since [date] can do 240 kw charging".

So S/X max charging rate will not increase dramatically with SC v3. Not until the pack is redesigned with new cooling architechture. It's unclear if Tesla would invest in doing so with the current 18650 cells, since Supercharging speed limits is definately NOT limiting sales of the S/X.

Cheers!

 

[tivoboy]

Keep missing the bottom but grabbed more at 302. FOMO in effect.

FOMO never wins, MOMO wins, but we don't have MOMO yet.

 

[Buckminster]

What about random drive by shooters in the cities? Will cars be expected to take evasive action or return fire?

Too many jokes..
Probably not appropriate - we get confused between real life and Hollywood forgetting one of them uses real bullets.

 

[ZeApelido]

Bailey is back b**ches!


https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...4231144-tesla-unsold-model-3s-climb-7000-plus

Or should I say @beachbum77

Or excuse me, is it @BaneBeater now?

Too many B's to keep up with

 

[Electroman]

Seems about 7k Model 3s are inventory and do not have a buyer.

Do not have a buyer? You mean they will all go to landfill and be crushed?

You mean they were not made to order, just like the million plus cars I see on the ICE dealers lot?

 

[Electroman]

Thats actually a much more reasonable scenario than what actually happened:

Wall Street: “We expect Tesla to sell between 50,000 and 60,000 Model 3’s”

Tesla: “We sold 63,000 Model 3’s”

Wall Street: “We expected, and have always expected that Tesla would sell 65,000 Model 3’s. OMG, this is terrible news, your stock is now worth less than...”

This is exactly what I believe happened.

 

[KarenRei]

I m not looking forward to any new CR data. It can really only go down from here, at least near term.

I disagree. CR's satisfaction survey serves as an annual reminder to the market that despite an entire year's worth of BS about Tesla customers supposedly being angry with the company about (insert favoured FUD topic here), by and large they remain exceedingly satisfied with their purchases and are very likely to be repeat customers.

AKA: "The FUD is just noise. Were you thinking about taking it seriously? Don't."

 

[winfield100]

300$ mark Breaking down. I hope we see 250 before ER so I can load up big

OT /s
izzat where your short brakes even?
hugz and kizz'ez
(PS thnx 4 subsidized Kaua'i vaca of 2 weeks, loved Pie'rats of Carribean camp spot off Lawai Rd near Allerton gdns)

 

[Cherry Wine]

FOMO never wins, MOMO wins, but we don't have MOMO yet.

Wth is MOMO?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Model S/X DC fastcharging is limited by battery pack cooling, not by chemistry. The Model 3 cooling architecture is significantly improved.

Apparently, Tesla has made further improvements with the upcoming SR pack as well, both simplfying the design and improving cooling. That is soo like Tesla.


So S/X max charging rate will not increase dramatically with SC v3. Not until the pack is redesigned with new cooling architechture. It's unclear if Tesla would invest in doing so with the current 18650 cells, since Supercharging speed limits is definately NOT limiting sales of the S/X.

Cheers!

You are probably right on the cooling, but I would not write off chemistry improvements either. As they continuously improve the chemistry of the cells as well, I think it is reasonable to expect they do so in all dimensions. Regardless, better cooling is probably needed for a higher C rate without damaging the cells. Now whether they redesign the pack for that really depends on their plans. If they plan to move S/X to 2170, they would probably not invest in that. But if they is several years away they could refresh the current pack design.

Regarding whether or not they would want to increase the charge rate for S/X I would argue "yes" from 2 aspects. The more "gut feel" argument is that as these are their current flagship products, they would not want to have others (e.g. Porsche) boast about 2-3x better charging times. The more practical argument goes like this: why release SC V3? The reason for that is that they will enable their cars for better charge speeds. OK, so can you imagine a scenario, where the Model 3 has 2x the charge rate for the Model S/X? How would that go over with buyers of those 100k cars?

 

[tivoboy]

I disagree. CR's satisfaction survey serves as an annual reminder to the market that despite an entire year's worth of BS about Tesla customers supposedly being angry with the company about (insert favoured FUD topic here), by and large they remain exceedingly satisfied with their purchases and are very likely to be repeat customers.

AKA: "The FUD is just noise. Were you thinking about taking it seriously? Don't."

This was all pretty much before we got the Model 3. And service has taken a hit across the board due to overwhelming the service side with Model 3 purchases and manufacturing deficiencies. I can't imagine where that doesn't make it's way into customer satisfaction data overall. We'll see.