SR+ surged in August, but in September - when most deliveries have been - LR AWD took over again (e.g. the SR+ backlog seems to have been filled).
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The EU SR+ share will fall (slightly) even more by the end of the quarter at the end of the day on Monday. Probably about 35-40% for Q3 as a whole in Europe, vs. ~8% for Q2. M3P deliveries are up by a couple percent.
Also, remember that the number of US Model 3 sales in Q2 was 2 1/2 times more than EU Model 3 Q2 sales, so a change in the US SR/LR ratio matters more. The difference is closer this quarter than last, but the US is still a significantly bigger market. If US SR+'s ratio is down only ~15%, that would more than offset the change in EU mix.
Also to factor in:
- The change in pricing
- The change in COGS
- Non-US/EU sales (last quarter = 10%; more this quarter)
- One can expect new markets to be prioritized towards M3P / AWD deliveries, as Tesla always does this with new markets.
- New markets probably represent about 1/8th of total deliveries this quarter.
I'd be up for trying to compute the net picture, but I don't have a good sense for Q2/Q3 US trim mixes, as I haven't been trying to track them (I've only been coming across lots of reports like the one above suggesting that the US ratio of SR+ has significantly dropped in Q3).