Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Sorry to have created confusion but I honestly cannot see how anyone who read the post could believe it was about Tesla
1. Referred to q2 cc, last Tesla q2 was 11 months ago

Now you´re completely confusing me. Tesla reported Q2 results on July 24, which is 2 months ago: Events & Presentations | Tesla, Inc. I, too at first thought your post was about Tesla - you never mentioned NIO in it or quoted anything so it seemed off context - and per default discussions here are about Tesla. But lets stop this discussion.

 

[Lessmog]

There are two possible reasons for this that I can think of:

1) it is in their financial interest to not allow any positivity in conversations about Tesla
2) they actually believe Tesla isn’t selling that amount of vehicles and are engaged in fraud by inflating the true numbers

My personal belief is they try to say it is because of reason number 2, but in actuality it is because of reason number 1 and don’t truly believe in fraud there.

But, humanity always continues to amaze me, so maybe they do actually think it is a giant conspiracy.

I think you missed my attempt at funny: "that guy" in the avatar is himself an inflated aviator, the "Otto Pilot" from some movie.
Thus, he really "is" a bubble!

 

[mongo]

Yes, I thought about that scenario too, but there's additional considerations:

1. we know that GF3 will be importing bty cells and building packs at some point quite soon. The LG China contract rumors and Panasonic GF1 announcement argue for that. These both imply that GF3 must be building their own packs early in the production process, much earlier than the completion date for this just started "phase 2" building
2. we also know that GF1/Sparks disassembled and shipped their mk 1 bty pack building machine to GF3/Shanghai some time ago. Unless that machine is sitting in storage somewhere, its got to have been put into the existing structure. This argues that GF3 phase 1 will have the ability to assemble bty cells into packs
3. if the new structure is designed to build bty cells rather than assemble bty packs, the need for transport from the "bty workshop" to the main building will be substanitally lessened. Indeed, a miniturized vacuum pipe tube might be all that is required to move bare 2170 cells between buildings at high speed without disrupting surface vehicle traffic

View attachment 460626

So, If LG starts shipping cells to GF3 before the "bty workshop" is complere, It'd say that's further evidence that the new structure will be the first "Megacube" intended to manufacture bty cells. I hope so, because with Semi imminent and the Pickup unveil due in November, Tesla is about to become extraordinarily 'cell hungry'. They'll need many such bty cell factories, and that right soon!

Cheers!

Good point on the phasing/ staging of equipment. We know the equipment to assemble packs is somewhat movable so what about this order:

1. Packs from GF1 via loading dock
2. Cells from X through loading dock to GF1 transplants in main structure (since it exists)
   
3. Move GF1 lines to cell building (when it exists), ship cells there, assemble packs then transfer to assembly building loading dock

• (At some point) start making cells on site.

 

[hobbes]

Mind explaining to me what the negligence is for driving when you have right of way and stopping when a car is about to hit you?

Stopping too late.

Question: If you had been in the passenger seat with someone else driving exactly like advanced summon did in the video, would you have approved ot the driver continuing until the last split second before hitting the brake when the car backing out continued to do so for seconds before, obviously not seeing the Tesla coming??

 

[StealthP3D]

Based on what Steve the ghost is sharing, a lot of these guys are off the hinges. I see threats and doxing attempts. Be careful out there. It's not a civil discussion anymore. They are losing and becoming desperate.

What follows is a few random thoughts about how sex plays into Tesla's brand image and also the whole $TSLAQ phenomenon.

Doesn't it seem sexist in an anti-male way to only refer to the $TSLAQ crowd using a male pronoun (guys)? On the other hand, $TSLAQ members do seem to be overwhelmingly male. Not sure I've ever seen one of them identify as a female. Hmmmmm...pondering the significance of this.

I agree with you that $TSLAQ violence (that goes beyond the bits we have already seen) is increasingly likely as Tesla's successes continue to build. The problem is this type of testosterone-filled $TSLAQ member has a lot invested in having TSLA fail (and it goes far beyond money). I'm sure they have been very vocal to everyone in their social sphere (work, family, friends, neighbors and significant others) about how TSLA is all a big government-funded scam that will come crashing down. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. And therein lies the problem. The very act of Tesla becoming wildly successful is a threat to their brains and their masculinity, much more so than even their financial standing. The incentive to take matters into their own hands is strong on multiple levels. So, ya, be careful out there. The threat is growing in proportion to TSLA's success.

 

[Creekstalker]

Toxic masculinity.

 

[mrmage]

I'm wondering what the driving force behind the anti-NIO decisions of Beijing is:

• Is it Tesla's lobbying prowess? Highly doubt it ...
• Is NIO a scam that Beijing realized too late and just wants to cut out before it festers? Possible, but then why didn't they just take over NIO and wind it down quietly, instead of letting it fail spectacularly? Tencent will lose big with NIO, and they should have 100x of Tesla's influence in Beijing.
• Some other motivation? Do they want to set an example? Did NIO attempt to bribe them or insulted the daughter of Xi Jinping?

It's a true mystery that is baffling to me: Chinese national pride is huge, and rightfully so considering the transformation to an economic and military superpower during the past 50 years, and it just doesn't make any sense to me why they'd so visibly choose a U.S. company over a Chinese one.

Does anyone have any good explanation for this?

There is tremendous pride within China, but the people and government are also aware of their weaknesses and what still needs to be done. Consumers remember the food scandals in the 2000s and 2010s. Restaurant owners still tell my family which fish from China should be avoided because they're laced with chemicals. Counterfeit goods impact Chinese so they prefer western brands.

The big difference is that the US government is driven by special interests and personal interests, whereas the Chinese government is driven by growth and social stability.

With that in mind, if you were China, would you be further ahead by 1) Bringing Elon Musk and Tesla to China and making China the most advanced EV producer in the world, or 2) prop up an inferior competitor like NIO that won't stand a chance in the future?

The sense I get from EM is that he cares about the cause, not about political boundaries. I also believe that Tesla will build an R&D arm in China that's comparable to the US team, likely even larger eventually.

China and EM are a great fit with well aligned goals.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I'm wondering what the driving force behind the anti-NIO decisions of Beijing is:

• Is it Tesla's lobbying prowess? Highly doubt it ...
• Is NIO a scam that Beijing realized too late and just wants to cut out before it festers? Possible, but then why didn't they just take over NIO and wind it down quietly, instead of letting it fail spectacularly? Tencent will lose big with NIO, and they should have 100x of Tesla's influence in Beijing.
• Some other motivation? Do they want to set an example? Did NIO attempt to bribe them or insulted the daughter of Xi Jinping?

It's a true mystery that is baffling to me: Chinese national pride is huge, and rightfully so considering the transformation to an economic and military superpower during the past 50 years, and it just doesn't make any sense to me why they'd so visibly choose a U.S. company over a Chinese one.

Does anyone have any good explanation for this?

We never got the full story on why Nio's factory plan was cancelled. Press suggests it was the decision of the NDRC as part of their plans to avoid overcapacity, but at the same time Nio didn't have enough funds to start building it anyway.

Capacity glut rules force EV maker Nio to yield to Tesla on Shanghai factory plans · TechNode

China’s top economic planning agency has blocked homegrown electric vehicle maker Nio from building its own manufacturing facility in Shanghai, as enforcement of new rules aimed at curbing overcapacity in the auto sector kick in.

The decision not to allow Nio to follow through on previously announced plans to build its own car factory in Shanghai effectively means Nio may have to wait in line until rival Tesla’s plant in the city reaches capacity.

An industry source told TechNode that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stopped Shanghai authorities from approving the plant. The city will have to wait until Tesla, which recently began construction on its own factory in Shanghai, has reached production capacity before it can approve other manufacturing sites, according to the source.

I guess there are several reasons why NDRC chose Tesla over Nio

• Tesla was ahead of Nio in beginning construction.
• NDRC had more faith in Tesla's ability to achieve demand for the capacity it was building.
• Tesla had the cash and a strong balance sheet to be able to fund the project.

As to why China is so supportive of Tesla generally:

• China understand the EV transition will be extremely beneficial to its GDP because of 1) reduced deaths and health issues from air pollution, 2) ability to build EV export capability and 3) reduce risk of GDP damage from global warming. They also understand the national security benefit of not being dependent on oil imports. Unlike in the US and Europe, fossil fuel interests are less powerful in China to prevent acknowledgment of this.
• So therefore China will do whatever it takes to accelerate the transition. They know Tesla leads EV technology by a significant margin and Tesla are in the best position to build and sell the most EVs most quickly. Therefore they support Tesla because the benefits China get from an accelerated transition significantly outweigh the cash Tesla will expatriate to US investors.
• A Tesla factory in China will help Chinese people gain much more knowledge about EV production and also learn from Elon's engineering philosophy. These people can then go on to build value throughout China's economy.
• China wants to signal it is opening up its markets and reforming its economy. Tesla is a great flagship project to showcase this.
• China can also use the Tesla factory as a flagship project to demonstrate China's speed at execution on construction, permitting etc.
• China will get a lot of sales and other tax income from Tesla products.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone have any good explanation for this?

Uh, their products suck? People want Teslas. People don't want weirdmobiles. I don't think you need to overthink this.

Cheers!

 

[acoste]

Sounds like your friend needs a wetware upgrade, or glasses. No license till then.

I agree.

It was something similar to this: Will collision avoidance work when backing up?
I remember about a thread that was even more similar but can't find it now.

Meanwhile Elon is advertising something on their website that is not available, although listed as a current feature:

Full Self-Driving Capability

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

If he is going to release anything from these with such a lousy performance, I'm gonna start to protest.


Coming later this year:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

 

[StealthP3D]

I guess there are several reasons why NDRC chose Tesla over Nio

• Tesla was ahead of Nio in beginning construction.
• NDRC had more faith in Tesla's ability to achieve demand for the capacity it was building.
• Tesla had the cash and a strong balance sheet to be able to fund the project.

I think the answer is even more simple:

It became apparent that Nio was not at all vertically integrated and this was a necessary quality to make high quality, affordable EV's.

Also, the Chinese may be thought of as "communist" still by Westerners but they have harnessed the power of capitalism very well. They are not about to prop up a non-competitive company.

 

[StealthP3D]

As to why China is so supportive of Tesla generally:

• China understand the EV transition will be extremely beneficial to its GDP because of 1) reduced deaths and health issues from air pollution, 2) ability to build EV export capability and 3) reduce risk of GDP damage from global warming. They also understand the national security benefit of not being dependent on oil imports. Unlike in the US and Europe, fossil fuel interests are less powerful in China to prevent acknowledgment of this.

I'm not an economist so correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't higher healthcare costs get added onto GDP? So a country like the US, with sky-high healthcare costs has its GDP artificially boosted by the amount we spend on healthcare? I get the part about healthier air and healthier workers leading to productivity gains, just curious what the overall effect of high healthcare costs are.

The same thing applies to the effect of global warming on GDP. Installing pumps, building higher levees, new seawalls and repairing the damage from hurricanes - doesn't that get added to the GDP?

We can see the GDP is not a useful tool to measure how well we live.

 

[SpeedGoat]

I tried to get it to run over me multiple times and it was very consistent in that it refused to run me over.

Sounds encouraging, please post an update if it ever does run you over though.

 

[StealthP3D]

Meanwhile Elon is advertising something on their website that is not available, although listed as a current feature:

Full Self-Driving Capability

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

Acoste, time to pay more attention. The part you bolded really is already a feature. Granted, I wouldn't use it if I couldn't see my car but it's normal and common to advertise features that only work within certain constraints. For example, ICE cars that offer "lane-keeping" don't specify it doesn't work unless the lanes have painted borders. Ironically, Tesla is way ahead on this, I've been on lots of roads without painted lane boundaries on which lane-keeping worked surprisingly well.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sounds encouraging, please post an update if it ever does run you over though.

Unlikely since it can stop in about one foot at 5 mph and has multiple ultra-sonic sensors placed around the vehicle (in addition to the cameras and radar). Maybe if I was "Flat Stanley" and I stood sideways to the car it might be able to hit me. I wish human drivers were as consistent because I've had to scoot out of the way when humans were backing up in parking lots (and more times than I can count).

Pondering whether extreme anorexics should be warned about the limitations of very thin objects not being recognized? Truthfully, the worst thing about Summon is not that it's so dangerous to human life but it's slow and there is always the possibility that it could cause a scratch or minor damage if not properly overseeing its operation.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Russia never made a compelling ICE car. The EV transition could be a blessing in disguise for them if they can look beyond oil profits and grab some EV market share.

So basically they are hosed... in the Soviet days Russia had a consumer oriented manufacturing sector that while uncompetitive by Western standards did basically supply all the types of goods the general populace required. Modern Russia is barely a ghost of what it once was. They have a manufacturing sector but are overwhelmingly a resource extraction economy.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Add a zero to the five and you have where I live.

Hawaii?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I'm not an economist so correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't higher healthcare costs get added onto GDP? So a country like the US, with sky-high healthcare costs has its GDP artificially boosted by the amount we spend on healthcare? I get the part about healthier air and healthier workers leading to productivity gains, just curious what the overall effect of high healthcare costs are.

The same thing applies to the effect of global warming on GDP. Installing pumps, building higher levees, new seawalls and repairing the damage from hurricanes - doesn't that get added to the GDP?

We can see the GDP is not a useful tool to measure how well we live.

I definitely agree GDP is a very poor choice of measure to optimise. There is good GDP and there is bad GDP. There are great products which are free and add nothing to GDP and there are also terrible products who's health, environmental and societal cost is not reflected in today's GDP.

Nevertheless, governments do care about it and dead or unhealthy people are less productive workers and pay less taxes.

 

[Green Pete]

There is tremendous pride within China, but the people and government are also aware of their weaknesses and what still needs to be done. Consumers remember the food scandals in the 2000s and 2010s. Restaurant owners still tell my family which fish from China should be avoided because they're laced with chemicals. Counterfeit goods impact Chinese so they prefer western brands.

The big difference is that the US government is driven by special interests and personal interests, whereas the Chinese government is driven by growth and social stability.

With that in mind, if you were China, would you be further ahead by 1) Bringing Elon Musk and Tesla to China and making China the most advanced EV producer in the world, or 2) prop up an inferior competitor like NIO that won't stand a chance in the future?

The sense I get from EM is that he cares about the cause, not about political boundaries. I also believe that Tesla will build an R&D arm in China that's comparable to the US team, likely even larger eventually.

China and EM are a great fit with well aligned goals.

Tesla vs NIO is not a zero sum game. China takes pride in building companies more than innovating IP. China would likely prefer to have 5 good EV companies over 4. The only thing that makes me doubt China would bail them out is how public their failure is already. If it had been caught before this point I would have been more confident that something would be done

 

[KarenRei]

Stopping too late.

Question: If you had been in the passenger seat with someone else driving exactly like advanced summon did in the video, would you have approved ot the driver continuing until the last split second before hitting the brake when the car backing out continued to do so for seconds before, obviously not seeing the Tesla coming??

Passengers don't drive cars. If I had been in the driver's seat, and that happened, I wouldn't be upset with myself at all - I'd be upset with the other driver. E.g. "I" was taking a turn, with right-of-way, and the other person was supposed to wait for me, and they didn't.

If the legal standard you're arguing is, "would it have been physically possible to avoid the accident if all possible information and perfect reading of other actors' intents was instantly available?", then almost nobody would have liability for anything, ever.