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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Puzzled why InsideEVs would release estimates for Tesla deliveries on October 1st... without knowing the Tesla figures. (or were they leaked to InsideEVs?)

I guess they want the double-whammy of webclicks? Because they will surely update their spreadsheet once Tesla makes the announcement.

Technically if they are not going to wait for Tesla's official numbers, they could release their estimate on September 30th!

Tesla won't post a US breakdown anyways so there won't be any official numbers I believe.
 
I consider myself conservative, and I bought a Tesla. Primarily because I am tired of smelling what comes out of the backside of an ICE and because I liked the idea of my own personal "stick it" to the countries that we are forced to buy oil from that obviously hate America and everything it stands for. Just one person's opinion of course. Buying a Tesla wasn't even remotely a political action for me.

Dan

Ditto on everything you said - but one question, did you have a Prius, a Volt, or a Leaf before you bought your Tesla?

I LOVE that my Tesla removes at least a few drops of our dependence on middle east oil so we can get out of that hornets nest. I LOVE that I'm not blowing my exhaust into someone's car for them and their children to breathe. But, I really wouldn't have bought or driven a Leaf for that reason. Would you? Did you?
 
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Ditto on everything you said - but one question, did you have a Prius, a Volt, or a Leaf before you bought your Tesla?

I LOVE that my Tesla removes at least a few drops of our dependence on middle east oil so we can get out of that hornets nest. I LOVE that I'm not blowing my exhaust into someone's car for them and their children to breathe. But, I really wouldn't have bought or driven a Leaf for that reason. Would you? Did you?
Actually I did drive a Volt for 5 years before my 3. It was the best option for me at the time in my price range.

Dan
 
I'm happy to see the positive action and hope it continues, especially on a day where macros aren't so hot. I can never understand why so many buyers appear a day or two before the numbers though. The same information was available yesterday and the day before. Why pay more by waiting until the last minute, unless someone is buying options?

I don't think it's retail investors - they are typically exiting positions before earnings, if we accept "Robinhood users holding TSLA" as a proxy for retail investors:

upload_2019-10-1_21-46-33.png

Note how the green line (users holding) has dropped today a bit as well.

My guess, the run-up (or drop) before key data events is due to:
  • Options market makers fully hedging against black swan events, where the upside risk is probably larger for TSLA than the downside risk.
  • Hedge funds buying out of the money Friday options one day before the delivery report. Why? Because this way they are paying almost no time value premium - they only pay the risk premium priced into options so far, for this single event. It's a binary leveraged bet that either pays big bucks or loses it all, and all within just a couple of trading days so that other macro events are less likely to interfere.
  • Shorts covering - they might not want to assume the risk of a positive delivery report.
 

Oh wow, and confirmed by Tesla China:

'Chinese social media: “All Tesla Model 3 Standard Range will not accept order after Oct 13th, this will be the last shipment of the Made in US Model 3, plz have ur test drive be4 Oct 7th and lock-in ur orders”'

'Made in China #Model3 is coming.'​

Didn't expect them to stop selling the SR+ in China so quickly. They must be pretty confident to be able to ramp up GF3 quicker than Fremont.
 
Oh wow, and confirmed by Tesla China:

'Chinese social media: “All Tesla Model 3 Standard Range will not accept order after Oct 13th, this will be the last shipment of the Made in US Model 3, plz have ur test drive be4 Oct 7th and lock-in ur orders”'

'Made in China #Model3 is coming.'​

Didn't expect them to stop selling the SR+ in China so quickly. They must be pretty confident to be able to ramp up GF3 quicker than Fremont.
That sound you hear is the rolling of M3's off the line in GF3...
 
Oops...I checked!

Dan
Oh wow, and confirmed by Tesla China:

'Chinese social media: “All Tesla Model 3 Standard Range will not accept order after Oct 13th, this will be the last shipment of the Made in US Model 3, plz have ur test drive be4 Oct 7th and lock-in ur orders”'

'Made in China #Model3 is coming.'​

Didn't expect them to stop selling the SR+ in China so quickly. They must be pretty confident to be able to ramp up GF3 quicker than Fremont.

Seriously huge news. For Tesla to stop shipping any SR+'s there beginning mid Oct strongly suggest they expect a rapid production ramp in 2nd half Oct and Nov. Stock should be up 5% just because of this news alone.
 
It's a small, 40 employee startup with well-known researchers - I'd say this is a classic case of "talent acquisition", not primarily technology acquisition. Tesla had a few high-profile departures from their non-AI Autopilot division, and I guess they want to increase the headcount and automotive clout on the AI side.

Good move IMHO.
Yes, they will need a bigger team to take advantage of HW3.