Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Tesla’s Autopilot Could Save the Lives of Millions, But It Will Kill Some People First


Very well balanced article from surprisingly Bloomberg, with the an interview with our very own Omar Qazi aka tesla_truth aka 'Steve Jobs Ghost'.

Seems they also doxxed him?
Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter
I didn't follow close enough to see if his real name came up anywhere prior to this.
That's a shitty thing to do if they were asked to call him Steve.

 

[Chickenlittle]

2018 Q3 was only 2-3 days warning

You certainly bet the long shots

 

[RobStark]

No, Maarten does NOT make any such claim. He makes the case that 2019Q3 Model 3 Production was 7K/wk after allowing for 1.5 wks downtime. That's history, not a prediction.

At no point does Maarten claim that Model 3 Production is 'Maxxed out' as you attempt to infer from his story on Q3 production.

He says that in the current Model 3 production line 7k per week is max production. Significant cap ex and reconfiguring would be required to increase that. At 7k per week, including down time, coffee breaks, unexpected this or that, the max quarterly production is about 80k Model 3s and only Jerome would know the exact figure.

 

[Electroman]

Seems they also doxxed him?
Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter
I didn't follow close enough to see if his real name came up anywhere prior to this.
That's a shitty thing to do if they were asked to call him Steve.

I don't think, who he is, was never a secret. In fact TSLAQ folks always referred to him as Omar Qazi. So in that sense he was never doxxed

 

[StealthP3D]

More details:

• "US and China make no progress on key trade issues in two days of deputy-level talks, sources say."
• "The Chinese delegation refuses to talk about forced technology transfers, a core US grievance in the negotiations, a person with knowledge of the meetings says."
• "High-level talks are expected to last for only one day, with Liu He and his team now planning to leave Washington on Thursday."

These are calculated leaks from the Chinese side.

I.e. China has made up their mind and is playing hardball with Trump.

My expectation: Trump will cave and call it a tremendous win: "The best trade deal in the 2,000 years history of trade deals".

Yeah, my thoughts too. Unless Trump wants to run the world's economy into the ground for personal gain (which would not surprise me one bit). But the most baffling part of all this is since Trump believes he is the world's best negotiator, why would he let his "deputies" do any negotiating at all?

 

[anthonyj]

Short interest down to 36M
Robinhood investors slowly unloading

So, I want to know, who is the mystery buyer?

 

[StealthP3D]

Doesn't seem like a good use of capital for just that.

However, it will probably cut their peak demand charges significantly.

That's probably why they are doing it - they did the math and it was a no-brainer.

 

[StealthP3D]

Short interest down to 36M
Robinhood investors slowly unloading

So, I want to know, who is the mystery buyer?

Anthony, there is no evidence that one buyer is behind this rally. That's just a preposterous assumption (but it's a good way to try to say the rally can't have much momentum behind it because it fizzles as soon as the one buyer is done acquiring.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

He says that in the current Model 3 production line 7k per week is max production.

The word "max" doesn't appear in the article. Comments don't count.

 

[sdtslafan]

Short interest down to 36M
Robinhood investors slowly unloading

So, I want to know, who is the mystery buyer?

Well, production continues to increase, demand continues to increase, competition continues to show they cannot compete, and electricification continues to be the obvious trend.

Seems like there would be a lot of mystery buyers.

 

[Unpilot]

Short interest down to 36M
Robinhood investors slowly unloading

So, I want to know, who is the mystery buyer?

Me

 

[M3Rider]

Well, production continues to increase, demand continues to increase, competition continues to show they cannot compete, and electricification continues to be the obvious trend.

Seems like there would be a lot of mystery buyers.

We've seen steady progress(that targets long term) quarter over quarter, every quarter. Yet, this did not affect SP much. Just Q3,4 of 18 that showed profits had positive SP impact.
So, Q3 19 seems to be between break even and negative eps with likely positive FCF, which was a steady pattern lately(FCF), yet again no effect on SP.

If the prior performance is an indicator of future results, then ER will disappoint and no reason for rallying right now.

Some may say that Q4 will be great and SP will rally on that premise, but I can easily see some analyst asking in the call "can you confirm that Q1 will be shitty?" or Elon volunteering this information himself as he tries to be transparent and this piece of info easily canceling out the Q4 sentiment, basically the sum of Q4+Q1 amounting to nothing great and bringing about the sentiment that you can buy TSLA on the cheap after Q1 ER, so there's no reason to do it now 6 months early...

So, it seems that loading up right now is a bit of a gamble or a bet that a prior pattern of SP behavior will break. I tend to also think that it is likely one/several big buyers making this bet, not the general public.

But what do I know, just my stupid opinion.

Edit: the real change compared to what we've seen in the past is GF3. That is a modifier that may warrant new/different bets. But again, this will not show immediate results; likely 2 quarters later. So. Is it a gamble to bet on GF3 now?

 

[sparcs]

Short interest down to 36M
Robinhood investors slowly unloading

So, I want to know, who is the mystery buyer?

Strangely, some shorts are having mental breakdowns on twitter or deleting their accounts.

Plainsite aka Aaron Greenspan is just attacking every pro-Tesla person they can. Aaron even sent Elon and Omar a bizarre email threatening a lawsuit. Bloodsport Capital aka Mark Gutman deleted. Bizarre soap opera if you skim through the tesla_truth twitter timeline.

 

[RobStark]

Should cameras replace car mirrors? NHTSA wants to know

 

[Causalien]

Strangely, some shorts are having mental breakdowns on twitter or deleting their accounts.

Plainsite aka Aaron Greenspan is just attacking every pro-Tesla person they can. Aaron even sent Elon and Omar a bizarre email threatening a lawsuit. Bloodsport Capital aka Mark Gutman deleted. Bizarre soap opera if you skim through the tesla_truth twitter timeline.

At some point, the shorts are going to understand that something you feel so emotional about. Something that can make you so angry is actually Love.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Strangely, some shorts are having mental breakdowns on twitter or deleting their accounts.

Plainsite aka Aaron Greenspan is just attacking every pro-Tesla person they can. Aaron even sent Elon and Omar a bizarre email threatening a lawsuit. Bloodsport Capital aka Mark Gutman deleted. Bizarre soap opera if you skim through the tesla_truth twitter timeline.

There’s a decent chance we can thank Greta. Young people are mobilising and waking up to their grim future if we don’t leave fossils in the ground. Nobody wants to be discovered by their kids to be the ‘evil dad’. Twitter account? What twitter account pumpkin?

 

[StealthP3D]

So, it seems that loading up right now is a bit of a gamble or a bet that a prior pattern of SP behavior will break. I tend to also think that it is likely one/several big buyers making this bet, not the general public.

The general public has been taught for years to buy companies that have great products and are the "big dog" in their industry. They've been taught to buy products they know and love. With the explosion of new Tesla owners out there, I think there will be plenty of retail investors buying a chunk of TSLA for the future.

But the real volume will come from the big funds who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for TSLA to go broke or make a major strategic blunder. Because the time is near when they will see the demand is growing, not shrinking, the cost of production is gradually declining and Tesla is becoming a more mature corporation and their buyers are becoming more mainstream. If they wait until they are profitable, they will miss most of the appreciation.

Growth stocks that are not yet profitable are always a gamble, that doesn't keep people from flocking to them when the time is right and it's become apparent they are the dominant player. Too much emphasis has been placed on profitability - that is mostly a talking point of the $TSLAQ crowd that will go (mostly) away when it becomes apparent that Tesla has built a solid and growing foundation and can remain cash flow positive indefinitely, even as they continue to grow products and production. People still think Tesla is losing money on every car they build because that is the false narrative pushed by the shady naysayers who want Tesla to fail. I would be willing to venture than many or most Tesla shareholders that frequent this board regularly know more about Tesla and their business than many hedge fund managers sitting on the sidelines.

Unless events beyond Tesla's control derail the success of the China factory, I think that will be the catalyst when people realize how much profit potential there is in making EV's. I'm predicting even the TSLA bulls will be shocked at how much cheaper Tesla will be able to make the Chinese Model 3 and in what volumes it will sell at with a gross margin MUCH higher than US-made Model 3's. Every investment is a gamble, some have better risk/reward ratios than others.

 

[SpaceCash]

Strangely, some shorts are having mental breakdowns on twitter or deleting their accounts.

Plainsite aka Aaron Greenspan is just attacking every pro-Tesla person they can. Aaron even sent Elon and Omar a bizarre email threatening a lawsuit. Bloodsport Capital aka Mark Gutman deleted. Bizarre soap opera if you skim through the tesla_truth twitter timeline.

Yeah, they're getting really creepy and threatening gun violence now. We're about to win

 

[Tim S]

If the prior performance is an indicator of future results,

It's not.

 

[JusRelax]

Just got 2019.32.12.1 and had a chance to try out smart summon. Apparently it knows now to stay on the correct side of the road, even when using the 'Come to Me' button: