Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Here in the UK at least, even if 50% of superchargers were out of action at a location you'd have way more chargers there than any alternative chargers. Lora really needs some actual experience with EVs and charging networks, then she might think twice b... Nah, it's Lora. Probably not.

It's worth telling her that, rather than us, as we already all know this sort of stuff.

Be polite, though. Yeah, she writes regular FUD pieces, but I also don't see her as being in the same category as Linette. She's more in the Dana Hull / Mark Matousek / Gustavo Ruffo category.

 

[Todd Burch]

Btw, Lora trolling for a new hit piece:

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

My reply:

 

[Todd Burch]

My reply:
View attachment 467357

Odd. Lora liked one of my Tweets right after I posted this. Weird.

Here’s the post she liked:

I guess she just thought I was criticizing Musk?

 

[Tslynk67]

Btw, Lora trolling for a new hit piece:

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

She has blocked me. She's totally in the pocket of $TSLAQ - even Dana and Linette haven't blocked me and I nag them regularly to report actual Tesla news rather than gossip.

 

[KarenRei]

She has blocked me. She's totally in the pocket of $TSLAQ - even Dana and Linette haven't blocked me and I nag them regularly to report actual Tesla news rather than gossip.

Yeah, she'll block in a heartbeat if she thinks you're being at all rude to her. Dana has a thicker skin. Linette just mutes you.

 

[Fact Checking]

Haven't seen this analyst note from yesterday reported here:

'Baird analyst, Ben Kallo, reiterated an Outperform rating and $355 price target on Tesla (TSLA) noting he would be a buyer ahead of earnings on the expectation of sequential margin improvement.'

'The analyst stated "we think results could surprise to the upside (there is an outside shot the company achieves GAAP profitability, in our view), though there are several variables, including leasing and Service/Energy margins, which could hinder near-term profitability. 2019 volume guidance will likely also be a focus as the market looks to bridge Q4; we think tightening guidance lower would remove an overhang on the stock".​

His expectation of GAAP profitability looks overly optimistic in light of the financial modeling TMC thread that expects around -$200m GAAP loss with all other things equal (which they rarely are).

Regarding guidance: with 2019 deliveries guidance of 360k-400k, the Q4 guidance that is remaining after 255,200 deliveries in the first three quarters so far is 104,800-144,800 - a broad range, with the lower range being hit most likely.

That Tesla would tighten Q4 guidance in their Q3 earnings report or conference call, to around 360k-370k looks possible at this stage - or they might say that hitting the lower end is the more probable outcome at this point.

 

[KarenRei]

Something new and white has shown up on the outside of the section of the Fremont factory that's supposed to be for the Model Y line:

Impossible to tell what it is at this low resolution; might be junk or an accumulation of white trucks. Whatever it is, it's large. Here's what that area used to look like:

The white blobs showed up at some point in the past five days. Changes this significant in appearance on the satellite are rather rare.

 

[mongo]

Something new and white has shown up on the outside of the section of the Fremont factory that's supposed to be for the Model Y line:

View attachment 467368

Impossible to tell what it is at this low resolution; might be junk or an accumulation of white trucks. Whatever it is, it's large. Here's what that area used to look like:

View attachment 467370

The white blobs showed up at some point in the past five days. Changes this significant in appearance on the satellite are rather rare.

New spung temporary pilot line from the permit postings?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Putting the thread back on the rails:

- 36 (!) posts on deposits and credit card fees were moved to Tesla lowers deposit (out of main)
- 11 posts with mathematical gymnastics were moved to Mathematical exercises on Ford's EV (out of main)

 

[KarenRei]

Something new and white has shown up on the outside of the section of the Fremont factory that's supposed to be for the Model Y line:

View attachment 467368

Impossible to tell what it is at this low resolution; might be junk or an accumulation of white trucks. Whatever it is, it's large. Here's what that area used to look like:

View attachment 467370

The white blobs showed up at some point in the past five days. Changes this significant in appearance on the satellite are rather rare.

Update to this: Elon told Ryan McCaffrey that they could build Y at Fremont if they append things onto the western side of the factory (the chunk of the factory where the Y is to be built being the westernmost part of the factory) (33-36 minutes in):

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

Well, that's very much what it looks like they're doing. Assuming that this is new construction.

Looking forward to getting some aerial shots of it!

 

[Pras]

Any thoughts on what hits or misses in the earning report may result in sell off, neutral or rally post earning?

my guess is below

Sell off: gaap loss> 200m or free cash flow < 0

Rally: gaap +ve, good order rate in China,

neutral : model Y fast track, battery or AP update

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't see any macros standing in the way of another green day. Oil is somehow up a tad on dollar weakness, the Donald shouldn't be throwing any fresh curve balls today.

 

[KarenRei]

Any thoughts on what hits or misses in the earning report may result in sell off, neutral or rally post earning?

my guess is below

Sell off: gaap loss> 200m or free cash flow < 0

Rally: gaap +ve, good order rate in China,

neutral : model Y fast track, battery or AP update

Agreed. I think the short term reaction will be based on, for the most part, a simple hit/miss of consensus plus a reaction to guidance. I think the market now expects a reaffirmation of production/deliveries guidance for this year (previously I think they'd been expecting a miss), and if they get that, plus numbers around consensus, they'll be happy. Anything else is extra. I still don't think they're very optimistic about GF3 scaleup timeperiods, although they seem happy about the starting date.

MY fast track would be huge, but I'm not holding my breath. Maybe, though.

 

[elasalle]

She has blocked me. She's totally in the pocket of $TSLAQ - even Dana and Linette haven't blocked me and I nag them regularly to report actual Tesla news rather than gossip.

Epiphany -
Part of $TSLAQ is actually $TSLA-QC ... (Quality Control).
Just like 0 Advertising, they don't know it yet, but TSLA is paying them $0 for escalating issues ...

 

[KarenRei]

Epiphany -
Part of $TSLAQ is actually $TSLA-QC ... (Quality Control).
Just like 0 Advertising, they don't know it yet, but TSLA is paying them $0 for escalating issues ...

Funny, but just, no

It's weird however that they glob onto "themes" for what to FUD. Right now it seems to be paint, MCU flash, smart summon, and solar fires. They seem to have mostly forgotten about everything else they used to freak out about.

Some of their paint FUD is just funny. I saw one the other day where they were sharing pics of a person freaking out about "paint damage" - white flecks of "damaged paint" across their lower trim. The problem? The exact same "white flecks" could also be seen on (unpainted) plastic trim - no difference in appearance whatsoever. E.g.: it's salt.

IMHO, Tesla should just wash his car and tell him, "We fixed it"

 

[TradingInvest]

Haven't seen this analyst note from yesterday reported here:

'Baird analyst, Ben Kallo, reiterated an Outperform rating and $355 price target on Tesla (TSLA) noting he would be a buyer ahead of earnings on the expectation of sequential margin improvement.'

'The analyst stated "we think results could surprise to the upside (there is an outside shot the company achieves GAAP profitability, in our view), though there are several variables, including leasing and Service/Energy margins, which could hinder near-term profitability. 2019 volume guidance will likely also be a focus as the market looks to bridge Q4; we think tightening guidance lower would remove an overhang on the stock".​

His expectation of GAAP profitability looks overly optimistic in light of the financial modeling TMC thread that expects around -$200m GAAP loss with all other things equal (which they rarely are).

Regarding guidance: with 2019 deliveries guidance of 360k-400k, the Q4 guidance that is remaining after 255,200 deliveries in the first three quarters so far is 104,800-144,800 - a broad range, with the lower range being hit most likely.

That Tesla would tighten Q4 guidance in their Q3 earnings report or conference call, to around 360k-370k looks possible at this stage - or they might say that hitting the lower end is the more probable outcome at this point.

I don't understand the rational why Baird suggests buying right before earnings. They did this a few times in the past, in most cases the outcome was not good. If someone really want to buy before earnings (for long term investment), maybe sell cash covered weekly OTM Puts instead.

 

[elasalle]

EM went Offline, Electrek gonna have writer's block

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This open looks very familiar.

 

[KarenRei]

Lora's Supercharger-problem fishing expedition led me to realize something.

Probably the most common Supercharger problem I see reported isn't that chargers (let alone whole stations) are down, but rather, that charge speeds are subpar. While there can be many causes for this, including in the vehicle itself, one common cause (when all chargers are showing the same problem for all vehicles) can be simply that the feed to the station cannot supply enough power.

But Tesla is planning to switch to the use of Powerpack-backed Superchargers. In theory, this entire class of problems should disappear when Tesla does this.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Since EVERYBODY, bull and bear, seems convinced that it's going to drop after earnings, I don't think it's going to drop after earnings.

If this is really traders playing the earnings runup/selloff pattern then TSLA will start falling on Monday when "smart" traders decide it's time to get out ahead of the crowd.

If they get 200K preorders in Q4, that's $100*200,000 = $20 Million. That's the benefit.

200k pre-orders times $2500 each is $500 million.

$500m > $20m