Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

The Oct 18, 2019 video from GF3 Shanghai shows an new heavy girder structure on the left side of the building as viewed in the picture below. This heavy structure reminds me of the battery cell aging racks we seen previously in pictures from GF1 Sparks.

I think your sense of scale is all wrong here These aren't racks; this structure is massive. It's the same sort of construction used for the "tall" parts of the main building.

Each row of the aging racks was like 80cm tall. These are the height of a small crane.

I think this is further evidence that the Phase 2 'bty workshop' at GF3 is in fact a bty cell production factory.

Cells are coming from LG.

 

[dww12]

Terrible analysis. Obviously biased.

Besides the Camry mpg number:
1. Why not compare to the hybrid Camry that gets 50mpg and costs $27-$28K.
2. As everyone here likes to point out about ICE dealerships, people don’t buy ICE at the MSRP.
3. Oil changes for a Toyota at a Toyota dealership costs $29, not $50. Never seen an ad from a Toyota dealer in my area for more than that. Then he adds on about how his oil changes were bad experiences.
4. This one was ridiculous, when he stated gas in California is over $5. Where? I live in CA and have yet to see that. Even if there is, it is most likely for premium, which the Toyota does not need.
5. You don’t need to change the brake pads and rotors at every 37,500 miles (he calculated 3 changes). Seriously? Is the guy tracking his Camry?

6. Biggest miss: No mention about insurance premium difference. When we first swapped out an Accord with a Tesla, the difference was $800/yr cheapest quote among the bigger names.

My wife’s rate went slightly DOWN going from a 2018 Volt to a 2019 P3D+, so prices vary. Her’s is $599/6mo mine is $620/6mo.

 

[Johnny Ma]

6. Biggest miss: No mention about insurance premium difference. When we first swapped out an Accord with a Tesla, the difference was $800/yr cheapest quote among the bigger names.

Sold my ford POS for ~$2500 when I got my LR RWD Model 3. Insurance went up by about $140/year.

This "Teslas are so expensive to insure" narrative really bothers me and makes me want to give Tesla more money. Unfortunately, the aero wheel cap kit is sold out. But Tesla will notify me by email when they're back in stock and then I'll buy it.

I think I might just start buying more Tesla paraphernalia each time you post

 

[mongo]

The Oct 18, 2019 video from GF3 Shanghai shows an new heavy girder structure on the left side of the building as viewed in the picture below. This heavy structure reminds me of the battery cell aging racks we seen previously in pictures from GF1 Sparks.

View attachment 468158

I think this is further evidence that the Phase 2 'bty workshop' at GF3 is in fact a bty cell production factory.

Cheers!

I think that is just a two floor section of the building with closer column spacing versus the open floor lattice structure ceiling/ roof of the middle part.

There was also a rumor that Tesla did away with the GF1 aging racks.
Racks: (free standing)

Yes, and here, I found a picture of that room. Or part of it. Pic taken just over 2 years ago.

View attachment 359969

Unverified source that reports they are gone (follow link to discussionon that):

Gone.

 

[elasalle]

OT Fun: Elon is the One. (Neo from the Matrix)
Musk AF on Twitter

 

[capster]

Is there any indication how the general public is responding to Adv Summon so far?

I use it about everyday but more often than not, I get a snide remark like "Not Ready" or "That's Creepy". The rest of the people are speechless/awestruck. I'm sure it does not compute for many.

Reputation is at stake and you can't respond with, "It's Beta...".

Wheelchair assist? I'm thinking victim unconscious assist at home (a heavy robot, but who's putting constraints on anything?). Medical industry would eat this up for the elderly. Bernie Sanders would buy one... maybe it climbs out of the trunk fetches the human and takes you to the hospital and intersects with an ambulance on the way. That's the ideal really.

When I was getting in my 3 the first time I tried smart summon, I noticed an attractive, 30’s ish woman watching (I’m, um, somewhat older than that now). As I drove away, she gave me a long gander, if not quite the old come hither.

Old school mid-life crisis cars watch out.

 

[dc_h]

Definitely did not like how he used his personal mpg, and then said he would generously raise it to a value that was still below the city mpg. He should have used the combined mpg rating.

That kind of bias made me stop reading.

Had to look up HPAL ore processing:

View attachment 468129

View attachment 468134
View attachment 468136​

Autoclave pressures are up to ~4,500 kPa or 45 bar - significant pressure levels for such high capacity autoclaves.

On the HPAL capex intensity I found this figure: about $50k of capex per tons of Nickel output based on historical projects. So with 1 million tons that's ~$50b of capex with current technologies. Certainly not a single step expansion, and probably requires some out of box thinking to reduce both the capex levels and the lead time.

my first thought was terrible idea. Seeing the scale required should scare any sane person away from taking this on. That said, if someone could design an enhanced processing step to reduce the cost and partner up with a couple of other large global companies (like LG) they could fund ongoing expansion out of operations. An initial billion dollar pilot could scale up another billion or more per year as vehicle production increases. Based on cost of goods, if Elon thinks they can reinvent the mining and processing, this would be a significant new gap between Tesla and the rest of the industry. I can see a time not so far down the road where governments will push Tesla to spin off parts of the vertical integration to reduce barriers for the rest of the industry to compete. If Tesla gets to 5 million cars before anyone else (outside of China) gets to 1 million, they may need to start licensing or selling components to one or more of the transition losers.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Great view of the test track rumble strips and the Superchargers (incl. planned additions)

The Level 2 chargers on the opposite side (North end?) caught my eye. Think of the selfies under a giant TESLA logo:

 

[KSilver2000]

Sold my ford POS for ~$2500 when I got my LR RWD Model 3. Insurance went up by about $140/year.

This "Teslas are so expensive to insure" narrative really bothers me and makes me want to give Tesla more money. Unfortunately, the aero wheel cap kit is sold out. But Tesla will notify me by email when they're back in stock and then I'll buy it.

I think I might just start buying more Tesla paraphernalia each time you post

Thanks. That’ll help with the value of my TSLA holdings.

How about you talk to State Farm, AAA, and Amica. I would love if you can help get my insurance as low as what it was before.

 

[EVMeister]

ESLA!

 

[Tslynk67]

My insurance halved when I went from previous Volvo XC90 to P85 in 2014 - despite the car costing twice the amount and 0-100 3x faster.

 

[EVMeister]

The Telegraph just published a potentially interesting article. I can't read it as it's paywalled and I'm not a subscriber, but it seems to be suggesting Europe might be willing to slacken their legislation on Tesla's behalf. Would be nice if they stopped gimping autopilot so much in Europe. Europe considers relaxing self-driving laws under pressure from Tesla

 

[Johnny Ma]

Thanks. That’ll help with the value of my TSLA holdings.

How about you talk to State Farm, AAA, and Amica. I would love if you can help get my insurance as low as what it was before.

You presented the part about huge jumps in insurance premiums as being an important part of the analysis that was missed, implying it would affect everyone. It's a false narrative routinely pushed by short-sellers. It wasn't true for me and others also spoke up to say how it wasn't true for them.

I'd be happy to be wrong about your motives here but otherwise don't want to discuss it. Other posters here show up with the obvious intent to mislead and lie to help their position in the stock. I wonder what the dollar amount per post is worth to them. If they can make big moves in the price of TSLA, my relatively small purchases certainly will have little effect in disincentivizing their behavior. But what the hell, I'm getting stuff I want/need and supporting a company I love.

Just bought the tire repair kit, btw.

 

[Tslynk67]

The Telegraph just published a potentially interesting article. I can't read it as it's paywalled and I'm not a subscriber, but it seems to be suggesting Europe might be willing to slacken their legislation on Tesla's behalf. Would be nice if they stopped gimping autopilot so much in Europe. Europe considers relaxing self-driving laws under pressure from Tesla

You can register free for one "premium article per week", so I did... Some key passages - doesn't sound like heavy pressure TBH:

The system ... has been curtailed in Europe because of United Nations rules adopted by the EU. The regulations mean Autopilot must complete a lane change within five seconds of signalling and also limit the sharpness with which it can turn.

Drivers have complained that the restrictions lead to the cars dangerously abandoning lane changes and handing control back to the driver midway through turns.

The proposals, submitted by the European Association for Electromobility (Avere), of which Tesla France is a member, suggest raising the lane change time to 20 seconds and increasing the system’s turning ability.

“several representatives from Tesla” attended a meeting of the UN’s working party on such vehicles last month to present the amendments.

Tesla has not yet suggested changes to separate rules that prevent it from launching its Smart Summon feature

Dudley Curtis, spokesman for the European Transport Safety Council, said: “We think that these kinds of automated features need independent regulatory testing and approval based on a common list of performance requirements and safety standards.

Tesla and Avere did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

tl:dr: there's a European Association for Electromobility (Avere) - Tesla is a member and they're making some recommendations, but nothing dramatic at this point.

 

[KarenRei]

ESLA!

Let it go? </dyslexia>

 

[LJS22]

You presented the part about huge jumps in insurance premiums as being an important part of the analysis that was missed, implying it would affect everyone. It's a false narrative routinely pushed by short-sellers. It wasn't true for me and others also spoke up to say how it wasn't true for them.

I'd be happy to be wrong about your motives here but otherwise don't want to discuss it. Other posters here show up with the obvious intent to mislead and lie to help their position in the stock. I wonder what the dollar amount per post is worth to them. If they can make big moves in the price of TSLA, my relatively small purchases certainly will have little effect in disincentivizing their behavior. But what the hell, I'm getting stuff I want/need and supporting a company I love.

Just bought the tire repair kit, btw. View attachment 468210

I wonder how much they make on their shop? Things are constantly sold out at random, it seems they could offer even more in the shop but they have to be bringing in a pretty penny on this. Snow tires are sold out currently haha

 

[Fact Checking]

ESLA!

I'm afraid they spoiled the fun earlier today:

Esla, we hardly knew ye!

 

[pz1975]

I'm afraid they spoiled the fun earlier today:

View attachment 468237​

Esla, we hardly knew ye!

TSLAQ told me that they couldn't afford anymore white paint. That picture is obviously a photoshop.

 

[Fact Checking]

TSLAQ told me that they couldn't afford anymore white paint. That picture is obviously a photoshop.

They tried to save paint on the "E" and "A" as well:

Pathetic!

 

[StapleGun]

TSLAQ told me that they couldn't afford anymore white paint. That picture is obviously a photoshop.

Obviously fake. Regulations in Shanghai strictly limit their painting to 4 letters max.