Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Today: Starlink
Tomorrow: Neuralink

Seriously, Starlink is going to be a cash printer. The global internet access market is $1T/yr, and growing at quite a clip; and by solving the "last link" problem, Starlink will grow it even more. If SpaceX proves it can be successful (technical, market) with Starlink, its value will skyrocket, and it should drag Tesla up with it (on the notion that Musk could use SpaceX to bail Tesla out of any problem, and might start buying the stock back himself). SpaceX's value could easily break $100B next year if Starlink goes as planned, and far more over the coming years. Even if Tesla were to flounder, if Starlink is a big success, I'd expect Musk's net worth to pass Bezos's within 2 years or so.

I'd happy hop onto the Starlink internet bandwagen. As I'm military and I move around constantly, it'd be nice not to be shoe holed into some crappy service because of the unofficial monopoly the company has.

 

[Pras]

Even if Tesla were to flounder,

I hope not!!

 

[KarenRei]

Even if Tesla were to flounder,

I hope not!!

 

[HG Wells]

Did we ever determine why Elon went off line for 3-4 days ?

Any evidence he was in China or Europe ?

Or did he get the dreaded call from MOM telling him he was online too much?

 

[Fact Checking]

New Did we ever determine why Elon went off line for 3-4 days ?

He might still be abroad?

China is still my primary guess - but there's been no sightings of him. If he was in Europe I'd find it very curious for it not to have leaked.

Out camping somewhere in the sticks with the boys, testing Starlink, is my secondary guess: the Starlink ground stations corridor goes straight through Montana.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Anyone else concerned how China could react to starlink. I assume there would be no way to censor content with it

 

[jhm]

Today: Starlink
Tomorrow: Neuralink

Seriously, Starlink is going to be a cash printer. The global internet access market is $1T/yr, and growing at quite a clip; and by solving the "last link" problem, Starlink will grow it even more. If SpaceX proves it can be successful (technical, market) with Starlink, its value will skyrocket, and it should drag Tesla up with it (on the notion that Musk could use SpaceX to bail Tesla out of any problem, and might start buying the stock back himself). SpaceX's value could easily break $100B next year if Starlink goes as planned, and far more over the coming years. Even if Tesla were to flounder, if Starlink is a big success, I'd expect Musk's net worth to pass Bezos's within 2 years or so.

Is it any surprise that Musk is content to see the stock price flounder below $300?

 

[Joe F]

Anyone else concerned how China could react to starlink. I assume there would be no way to censor content with it

I’m concerned about your seemingly constant level of concern.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What company is that? I’d like to avoid its products/services.

Why. These are just normal people going about there day, raising family’s, paying their mortgages. They just catch the headlines, read a bit of the news and hear the rumours. They have no axe to grind. Almost everyone drives a truck in this business. Tesla is just a blip on the radar. These are salt of the earth people with no interest in any Tesla products. Now if Tesla ever makes trucks... RV industry folks. Every one of these folks is into hunting, fishing, snowmobiling, trapping. A truck is in their DNA.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Is it any surprise that Musk is content to see the stock price flounder below $300?

I believe Elon Musk is concerned with ensuring his companies' success. If that lines up with the idiots on Wall Street...great. If it doesn't...well, it's not really a concern since he doesn't really need the markets to fund their growth. He has proven he can raise money time and time again. He just needs to stay the course and fulfill his vision. He has a pretty good track record for doing just that.

Dan

 

[jeewee3000]

Anyone else concerned how China could react to starlink. I assume there would be no way to censor content with it

Don't know if you're trolling or not, but no, I'm not concerned about that.

Reason being the Chinese government would only be threatened by Starlink if SpaceX would provide internet service to Chinese customers. SpaceX is smart enough not to do that without an agreement from the Chinese government.

 

[1101011]

I'd happy hop onto the Starlink internet bandwagen. As I'm military and I move around constantly, it'd be nice not to be shoe holed into some crappy service because of the unofficial monopoly the company has.

Starlink: how about Tesla owners / TSLA investors with first priority ?

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone else concerned how China could react to starlink. I assume there would be no way to censor content with it

In China all satellite phones require a permit (i.e. it's illegal to possess one without a permit), and in addition to that SpaceX almost certainly won't connect to China based receivers unless that specific receiver was permitted by China - and then one of the conditions of a frequency license would be for all traffic to go through a China ground station.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Starlink: how about Tesla owners / TSLA investors with first priority ?

As a Tesla investor I would want to see Starlink open to as large a market as possible. Why limit it to Tesla owners/investors. That doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever.

Dan

 

[jerry33]

As a Tesla investor I would want to see Starlink open to as large a market as possible. Why limit it to Tesla owners/investors. That doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever.

Dan

It's always best to start with a friendly audience before widespread deployment.

 

[LN1_Casey]

As a Tesla investor I would want to see Starlink open to as large a market as possible. Why limit it to Tesla owners/investors. That doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever.

Dan

Maybe for beta testing, like they had certain cars be early release test mules for certain Tesla features.

 

[Fact Checking]

Macquarie analyst reiterates Outperform rating and $400 price target:

Macquarie analyst Maynard Um reiterated an Outperform rating and $400 price target on Tesla ahead of FQ3 earnings call on October 23rd AMC. The analyst sees upside for the company in 2020 due to OpEx control and the benefits from credit sales while the lower end of the FY delivery target is feasible (360-400k) along with positive cash flow (ex 1x items).

The analyst stated "Q2 was impacted by 1x items (return reserves, restrux, & inventory write down that were not excluded from pro forma results). The 10Q highlights restrux charges will result in cost savings of ~$130m for H2 FY19, which we believe is not in our/Street ests. We adjust our FQ3 revs to $6.22B (Street: $6.45B) for higher leases but leave our EPS unchanged at ($0.03) (upside to Street’s at $(0.46) & vs. guide for positive non-GAAP earnings), which includes higher S/X mix but no regulatory credit revs".​

This also includes a current snapshot of Q3 Wall Street revenue expectations of $6.45b, and EPS loss of -$0.46 - which is about -$70m GAAP loss.

As a comparison: in the financial modeling thread @luvb2b and @EVNow are both expecting around -$210m GAAP loss and -$1.3 EPS loss for Q3, and revenues of $6.2b-$6.3b. So there's a good chance for Tesla Q3 financials to "miss Wall Street expectations" both on GAAP income, EPS and revenue - with the expected media narrative and SP reaction, all other things equal.

The Macquarie estimate is a bit on the bullish side, but he correctly notes that the higher Q3 lease percentage likely results in lower Q3 revenue.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Pre earnings downward push by shorts this morning or macros?

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Pre earnings downward push by shorts this morning or macros?

Dan

Don’t know for today, but yesterday shorty was out in force...

 

[StealthP3D]

Summon and Smart Summon are fantastic when they're working, but NO WAY Smart Summon - or even regular "Summon" - should be considered "delivered". I had to keep trying to reconnect well over 40 times to get my Model X to move 100' with a 180 degree turn; the connection problem is just as buggy standing right next to the car trying to get it to move fore and aft; I'd look like an idiot if anyone were watching closely. Meanwhile, the app worked flawlessly for flashing the lights on command, so it appeared to not be a real connection issue.

(Edited a couple times)

Uh, no. The fact that you can reliably flash the headlights does not show it's not a connection issue. Smart Summon uses different criteria and protocols to determine if the connection is robust enough to perform the desired action. Flashing the lights is a simple one-time command that is not dependent upon signal strength. The command either gets through and is executed or there is no connectivity. Smart Summon only works once it has verified the connectivity is robust enough to safely perform the summon.