Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Tried to find a place in San Diego that serves bear meat for tomorrow. No luck.

Siesel's in Bay Park. https://seisel-s-old-fashioned-meats.hub.biz/

Yes, this is off-topic. But if anyone has it, it would be them.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I like this. Elon from the call, talking about FSD and what "feature-complete" means:

Yeah, feature-complete, I mean, it's -- the car is able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- low speed autonomy with Summon. You've got high-speed autonomy on the highway, and intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.

So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised. And I've gone through this timeline before several times, but it is often misconstrued that there's three major levels to autonomy. There's the car being able to be autonomous, but requiring supervision and intervention at times. That's feature complete. Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth, including ever corner case, it just means most of the time.

And then, there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision. Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are three different levels.​

I find it interesting (and very Elon-esque) that Musk doesnt think like everyone else in terms of 5 levels of autonomy, but mostly in a original 3-layered level 3-4.

 

[KarenRei]

I like this. Elon from the call, talking about FSD and what "feature-complete" means:

Yeah, feature-complete, I mean, it's -- the car is able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- low speed autonomy with Summon. You've got high-speed autonomy on the highway, and intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.

So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised. And I've gone through this timeline before several times, but it is often misconstrued that there's three major levels to autonomy. There's the car being able to be autonomous, but requiring supervision and intervention at times. That's feature complete. Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth, including ever corner case, it just means most of the time.

And then, there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision. Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are three different levels.​

I find it interesting (and very Elon-esque) that Musk doesnt think like everyone else in terms of 5 levels of autonomy, but mostly in a original 3-layered level 3-4.

The SAE 5-layer system is pretty dumb. It has no requirement of actual levels of safety, just whether the car is "can drive" in conditions of X, Y and Z, where it's not defined whether "can drive" means "physically possible", "manufacturer thinks its safe", or "regulators think its safe" - which can be radically different standards for the exact same system.

It's a system that's perfectly set up for building marketing hype, but not much more.

 

[electracity]

I like this. Elon from the call, talking about FSD and what "feature-complete" means:

Yeah, feature-complete, I mean, it's -- the car is able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- low speed autonomy with Summon. You've got high-speed autonomy on the highway, and intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.

So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised. And I've gone through this timeline before several times, but it is often misconstrued that there's three major levels to autonomy. There's the car being able to be autonomous, but requiring supervision and intervention at times. That's feature complete. Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth, including ever corner case, it just means most of the time.

And then, there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision. Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are three different levels.​

I find it interesting (and very Elon-esque) that Musk doesnt think like everyone else in terms of 5 levels of autonomy, but mostly in a original 3-layered level 3-4.

I would have thought that feature complete would also include the elimination of attention from the human driver.

Tesla is a very long way from accepting liability for the cars behavior.

 

[avoigt]

What just happened to Tesla and the Shorts ...

 

[Tslynk67]

You could reward his good sportsmanship by choosing a charity that he'd like as well Paying it forward.



Um... it'd be the second biggest single-day move ever for this stock in percentage terms. The biggest in absolute terms.

You read my mind

 

[Artful Dodger]

Because they have a huge lead lithium

FTFY.

 

[Artful Dodger]

WSJ Coverage of Q3 They heavily steer the narrative towards falling sales and demand:

Tesla Delivers a Surprising Profit

• Electric car maker’s results spur 20% rise in stock price; new products pose threat to margins
• But even as Tesla gets closer to showing it can consistently produce large volumes of cars, it faces the prospect that market dynamics might be shifting as demand slows.
• Tesla faces the elimination next year of a federal tax credit to its customers, a change that analysts say could affect demand.
• What’s more, industry experts fear overall demand for new vehicles might be about to slump after a prolonged growth period. Demand in China and Europe already is showing signs of weakness and the appetite for new vehicles in the U.S. could be in jeopardy, analysts have said.

Tesla Stock Charge Will Have Limited Range

• Shares surge on surprise profit, but falling sales mean debate over long-run viability is far from finished
• The top line was far less impressive, however. Total sales of $6.3 billion were slightly below analyst expectations, despite the recognition of deferred revenue. More important, they fell 8% from a year earlier. That is Tesla’s first annual sales decline since 2012.
• That decline won’t trouble bulls, who point to a new factory in Shanghai and a coming new crossover vehicle known as the Model Y. Those bets are no sure thing, however. China’s auto market is showing increasing signs of stress, and Tesla already revealed the Model Y earlier this year to minimal enthusiasm

No mention of energy products or next month's pickup reveal (but did mention limited production of semi next year, new factory coming in Europe, model 3 trial production in China, and model Y ahead of schedule).

With assistance by Dana Hull?

 

[electracity]

good morning everyone! anyone with predictions about whether we'll finish above yesterday's closing price?

I don't know if it will stay above 300 today, but I do think it will return to trading in the 300s. Too many good things coming next year with minimum risk (assuming Tesla isn't actually doing stuff like casting the model Y unibody)

Battery constrained is just going to mean selling fewer low end cars.

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Boss, Boss, I think I figured out how Elon is doing this self driving thing
If we release this, it will drive the stock to ZERO !

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isn’t the WSJ owned by Bezos, the guy who invested in Rivion?

WaPo (Washington Post)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tried to find a place in San Diego that serves bear meat for tomorrow. No luck.

Call me skeptical, but you should try looking in Montana.

 

[MissAutobahn]

From now on everybody will know that it is evident to save toilet paper to make profits...

 

[elasalle]

What time is Dessert (Solar Roof) being served today?
(live link??)

 

[HG Wells]

From now on everybody will know that it is evident to save toilet paper to make profits...

Why save when you can use this inexpensive brand.

 

[RFernatt]

Tried to find a place in San Diego that serves bear meat for tomorrow. No luck.

Maybe order some of these...

 

[DFibRL8R]

WaPo (Washington Post)

Bezo's paper decided to publish a piece last night about the lawsuit for a fatal Model S accident/fire in Florida. Family alleges he died because the fancy doors wouldn't open and police officer couldn't get him out in time. Not like that ever happens in cars with regular door handles...

 

[jerry33]

The issue you failed to grasp is that there are significant baggage attached to those capital. Usually the old times heroes of those companies, the people who worked hard achieved great financial success for the company in the old way, they're the backbone of the management, for a good reason.

Often the heroes of those companies are long gone by the time the world has changed--the reigns have been taken over by bean-counters and professional executives. Neither bean-counters or professional executives are good for innovation or changing times.

 

[Unpilot]

Is the Market open yet?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let me know if I have missed any.

Faster Supercharging for Model 3 SR/SR+