Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

As someone on Twitter pointed out, Tesla's IPO was in 2010, so the AMZN cross-over happens not after 8 years, but after 6 years...

Earlier than that, I think. The point they needed to be above was lower 6 years in than 8 years in. Looks to me like it would happen around year 4.

 

[KarenRei]

Curious law introduced in the CA legislature today that would exempt trucks > 6,000lbs. manufactured in CA for use without the state from sales taxes. Introduced by a Republican author, and lowers taxes, so probably won't go anywhere. Would benefit Tesla though wouldn't it?

AB 321 (Patterson)

Without? You mean within?

And yeah, that would be a good reason to make Semi at Fremont. Although I've always just assumed it'd be at GF1. And yeah, probably won't go anywhere.

 

[Nocturnal]

Seems the NA demand is gone. They have Approx. 7000 in inventory. That could last for some time.

"This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,"

Gone? Don't you mean "not growing"?
The demand cliff argument doesn't make any sense. Do people think that all the potential M3 buyers in the US all when out and bought a car in the same few month period and will never buy one again?

Its all so obvious and hard to understand people who do not understand.

Maybe a picture does help....?


James Stephenson on Twitter


6 replies20 retweets50 likes

But that's just because the SP is over valued! According to Seeking Derpa TSLA should be trading at like 35-30 bucks! (lol)

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still so confused by the SP reaction. Every single bear theory has fallen by the wayside. All I see now is "oh no, the CFO left after coming back and getting the company running well. This must be the end!"

There have been a lot of very biased negative Tesla stories recently but it seems like they are very transparent and maybe starting to have a contrarian effect. Investors seem to see right through them and that makes them want in all the more.

 

[humbaba]

Without? You mean within?

And yeah, that would be a good reason to make Semi at Fremont. Although I've always just assumed it'd be at GF1. And yeah, probably won't go anywhere.

no, it is without. I'm not sure how it would apply to Tesla.

In essence, the bill is to avoid sales tax for what amounts to an out of state sale, other than being delivered to someone in state (for use out of state). Seems like an effort to get a tax exemption to cover a corner case.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

After going through the transcript and then catching up on the many insightful contributions to this thread, about the only significant nugget I came up with that has not been discussed is the China build out beyond 2019.

"...we're only just talking about Phase 1 here. Phase 1 is about 10% of what we think the Gigafactory will ultimately be. So it's a major, major, major deal."

If Phase 1 is 10% of the build out and equals 3000 cars week, then at full build out how many cars a week do we think China GF could produce? Of course some this future phases might include things like in house cell production not just more cars. Point is the long term China GF picture is a "... major, major, major deal." not just the 3k a week by the end of 2019 most people are focussed on.

I definitely think the long term plan would be Giga 3 does car, solar, energy for all of China/Asia. I would assume Giga 4 for Europe would be the same. Not point in wasting margin by shipping Powerpacks/solar products overseas especially when long term....TE is going to be the main revenue driver, not the auto business.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hmm TSLA keeps bouncing off green. Curious whether it’s profit taking or someone trying hard to keep it red...

 

[Tslynk67]

Sorry for the delay.
No.

... except to be introduced as the new CFO.

Ugh, it was already confusing enough with two Zachs...

 

[Toolsmack]

I waded through some TSLAQ on twitter to get any nuggets of what their attack plan will be after ER.

- A fair amount of Fraud implications - whatever
- A few pointing to Accounts Receivable not going down after the lengthy explanation in Q3 of why it was higher in Q3 due to ending quarter on a Weekend.
- A few pointing to 2019 Capex spending that was lower than forecast 2019 Capex (and instead of pointing to efficiencies, stating that they couldn’t afford the Capex they wanted because they don’t have the cash and had to manage Capex down to match only what was available)
- Another couple citing Q4 interest income based on yada, yada benchmark shows their actual cash position to be shockingly low

One of my favorite parts of this forum is having the knowledgeable people here dissect and obliterate short arguments so please have at it with the above bullsugar.

Now I need a shower.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Without? You mean within?

And yeah, that would be a good reason to make Semi at Fremont. Although I've always just assumed it'd be at GF1. And yeah, probably won't go anywhere.

No, without -- ie., outside of California.

 

[KarenRei]

Did someone hit pause on the stock? :Þ

 

[Krugerrand]

Solid cash flow 2 quarters in a row. Any concern on how wall street will respond to a drop in cash flow in Q1 earnings?

No. They will wave their arms, cry ‘the sky is falling’, make up some more ridiculous claims and then crawl back into their holes for a day or two before rinse and repeat.

What would concern me is if they suddenly took their heads out of their butts, grew a conscience and a halo of goodness, as that clearly would represent the end of the planet as Hell freezing over.

 

[elasalle]

Did someone hit pause on the stock? :Þ

Moles getting Whacked ...

 

[jbcarioca]

I doubt you could find 7 customers of the OEMs that bought without a test drive!

Maybe I am an outlier. I have bought a number of cars with no test drive, a couple because i bought them prior to their launch date.Here is the list, from my memory:
DAF 33; Mazda R100; Morgan +8; Ferrari 308GT4; Nissan 300ZX Turbo; Porsche 964; Audi A4 convertible; BMW X1 2.8.
Oddly I had driven Model S before I bought mine, but never a P85D. I had driven several Model 3 but never a P3D+
I suspect many people have bought without test drives.
When I sold my:
- DAF 33 the buyer looked at the car and handed me cash, first drove it after he bought it,
- The buyer for a Peugeot 308 that I sold bought the car without driving,
-The buyer of my Mazda R100 never even saw the car, I sent him photos he sent a messenger with teh payment and the messenger drove away with the car.
-My A4 convertible buyer wired me funds sight unseen and later came to get his car.
That is four specific cases with USED cars. Probably outliers all, but after that happened the first two times I quit thinking it was odd. For newly introduced models, especially special ones, I do not think it is very unusual to buy before driving.

 

[Cherry Wine]

no, it is without. I'm not sure how it would apply to Tesla.

In essence, the bill is to avoid sales tax for what amounts to an out of state sale, other than being delivered to someone in state (for use out of state). Seems like an effort to get a tax exemption to cover a corner case.

If the Semi were manufactured in California, purchasers for use outside of California would not have to pay sales tax under the proposed bill. Would amount to a savings that would make the economics more attractive. That is, if I'm reading the bill correctly. Ultimately a drop in the bucket for potential customers though, just thought it was interesting.

I wonder who's sponsoring.

 

[green48]

Does anyone here know the split of Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage Revenue? Ex. How much of that revenue came from storage vs solar generation? Thx in advance!

 

[Nocturnal]

Maybe I am an outlier. I have bought a number of cars with no test drive, a couple because i bought them prior to their launch date.Here is the list, from my memory:
DAF 33; Mazda R100; Morgan +8; Ferrari 308GT4; Nissan 300ZX Turbo; Porsche 964; Audi A4 convertible; BMW X1 2.8.
Oddly I had driven Model S before I bought mine, but never a P85D. I had driven several Model 3 but never a P3D+
I suspect many people have bought without test drives.
When I sold my:
- DAF 33 the buyer looked at the car and handed me cash, first drove it after he bought it,
- The buyer for a Peugeot 308 that I sold bought the car without driving,
-The buyer of my Mazda R100 never even saw the car, I sent him photos he sent a messenger with teh payment and the messenger drove away with the car.
-My A4 convertible buyer wired me funds sight unseen and later came to get his car.
That is four specific cases with USED cars. Probably outliers all, but after that happened the first two times I quit thinking it was odd. For newly introduced models, especially special ones, I do not think it is very unusual to buy before driving.

FWIW, some of the same here. I was only able to test drive an auto 335i before buying my manual version (so sorta test drove it). Also my first "nice" car was a 98 Trans Am that I bought at auction. I didn't even know how to drive stick when I picked it up. Granted the BMW was only like 44k compared to my leap of faith on a 72k tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

The real question is how many amps the Tesla CCS cables can do... if they're limited to 200A like the CCSv1 standard, then that's going to be an annoying charge-rate cut. CCSv2 cables are hard to come by, unless Tesla is making their own. There's also the possibility that Tesla pulled another "embrace and extend" and its cables can take more than the standard 200A.

From the pictures of the connectors it seems like Tesla has made their own cables. Obviously they have been doing ~300 amps without liquid cooled cables, so I see no reason their CCS cables would be any less capable than their current Type 2 cables on the Superchargers.

 

[Krugerrand]

One thing that is sort of a mistery to me is why they are ramping up the 3 so slowly?

We've heard from Elon that demand is not a concern and they are not even thinking about it;

We heard that 7k/week is achievable with minimal capex like a quarter ago from some analysts who took a factory tour and then the same from Elon;

We know that 7k "extrapolated" was achieved back in December 2018(paint shop) and comfirmed by Elon yesterday.

Then why target EOY 2019 for 7k/week? Shouldn't they be interested in ramping up quicker and making more money and helping environment by putting more M3s into the hands of people?

Priority is efficient and diligent cost spending and management. They pretty much said they were positioning the company to be in the best shape possible to withstand the upcoming recession, while still growing the company 50%+ and maintaining FCF.

Not really sure what about that has anyone confused. It’s got to be the most sensible and brilliant business strategy ever to make sure the company is around to see its mission through. If we’re hit with a recession, which many are calling for in the not to distant future, and Tesla isn’t prepared for it, just how do you expect them to be around to get more affordable EVs in people’s hands? You going to expect GM? Ford? BMW? to pick up the EV slack?

 

[mongo]

Perhaps literally embrace and extend, by extending the charge pin...