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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I believe that solar and EVs should be able to sand on their own.
I believe human species should continue to exist. Whatever it takes to make that happen is ok with me - including removing subsidies for fossil fuels and giving subsidies to sustainable technologies to compensate for the trillions spent on fossil fuels.
 
Not to mention passage of the Equal Rights Amendment!
Yes, I believe they will be the state to do that but I remember attending an info meeting held by tesla before 2016 election and was surprised to find out a Virginia legislature they considered favorable to them was a republican so I’m not sure if this switch in Virginia helps tesla or not but it does help virginia
 
Right now, there's a incredible incentive in Lombardia (region where Milan is)
Lombardia is in Green Bay, Wisconsin :)
Another aspect is the lack of left over cars from Q2 to Q3 in Europe.
Could be fewer cars in Q2 were declined.
IE: Improved quality and fewer buyers having last minute second thoughts.
Yes, almost no cars left over from Q3. Improved delivery logistics probably played a bigger role. Aided by Netherlands fleet buyers - you can deliver 75 cars to a leasing agency much faster and with a lot less hassle than delivering to 75 individual buyers. Look for more of the same this quarter.
I believe that solar and EVs should be able to sand on their own. Ensure solar customers can Net meter....
Net metering is a significant subsidy. It's an easily implemented "starter kit" policy, but it doesn't scale up.
The US had for years a 10% duty on imported pickup trucks.
It's actually 25%, and still in place. Created in 1964 and commonly called the Chicken Tax.
The price I'm talking about is the NEM (National Electricity Market) it is a very strange market with bizarre rules...
All electricity "markets" have bizarre rules and pricing anomalies. I cringe when I see articles that use wholesale prices to claim solar/wind have raised (or lowered) prices. Wholesale electricity markets are generally artificial, and some are completely broken. What we need to prove the case for solar/wind is a (mostly) self-contained grid with high penetration and low end-user prices. Unfortunately prices tends to be high in places with high penetration, e.g. Australia, California, Hawaii, etc. There is some hope in the US Great Plains and SW deserts outside of CA.

PS. Your NEM graph snapshot shows 50.2% renewables and 52.2% fossil. So renewables were more than half the net load, but less than half of the mix.
 
I've talked earlier about the hidden champion in VW's lineup, the new, cheaper and upgraded e-up! [just so] citycar.
With the new incentives, they should be able to sell every one that comes off the lines.
Don't know where the cells are made but suggest China.

SoMe_e-up_exterior

Base price incl. VAT is 21.975,00 €, battery capacity 32 kWh and 260 km range [WLTP].
So with an incentive of 6'000 EUR, that's one very juicy proposition for a metropolitan runabout.
What remains to be seen is how many they actually want to build.

Sources:
VW e-Up (2020): Testfahrt, Reichweite, Preis | ADAC
Der neue e-up!

This is the right time to point out Volkswagen AG's [including Porsche, Audi, Skoda, etc.] latest prognosis for its 2019 results: up to +5% over last year's revenue of 235 billion EUR with an operating margin of 7.0 +/- 0.5% [discounting costs from the Diesel deceit], and chiefly benefiting from a rise in SUV sales.

Even better than that VW eUP is Skoda's version - Citigo e iV with 36,8 kWh @ 19.500 EUR.

There is no reason to buy VW over Skoda, same car, different name, bigger battery, lower price.

skoda-citigoe-iv-m67-introduction.png

My understanding is that the car manufacturers have to chip in €3000 of that amount. On cars that cheap, that has to really hurt. I wonder if they will raise their prices?
 
My understanding is that the car manufacturers have to chip in €3000 of that amount. On cars that cheap, that has to really hurt. I wonder if they will raise their prices?

Thank you, I should have pointed that out - I agree but haven't confirmed this to my satisfaction. On the topic of "hurt", the manufacturer's contribution would increase by EUR 500, a significant amount with cars in this price range.

On the other hand, these cheap cars are perfect for raking in EV credits in the EU as of 2020.
 
First casualty of Tesla's Nürburgring (unofficial) record holder Tesla Plaid powertrain? Had Apple entered the market I'd have expected them to have a very expensive high end racing version with all sorts of records.

If Apple realized it recently that they are still years away from catching up with Tesla's powertrain technologies (assuming Tesla sits still during those years), it might have made sense to cut the 'drive train and car manufacturing' aspect of Project Titan.

One thing to keep in mind is that Apple almost never is the first entrant in new markets. Music players existed before iPod. Smartphones existed before iPhone. It usually doesn't go for the early adopter market, but enters when a market is about 5-10 percent up the S-curve. Also, companies that thrive in early adopter markets very rarely are the ones that capture the largest market share as the S-curve steepens up and the market broadens. Tesla may be the exception to that -- but maybe not. If someone other than Tesla does gain as the market broadens, I wouldn't bet against a well-funded tech entrant that understands battery tech and software superbly.
 
Question about the German incentives. Has it been confirmed that the vehicle length limit has been dropped, or not? If not, the Tesla still gets nothing, right?

The changes to the German EV incentives program were announced after a 4 hour meeting between Merkel and the VDA (German car industry organization) this Monday.

Press release was distributed via the DPA news agency, which isn't public AFAICS, here's a few secondary sources:
The changes that were reported:
  • Incentives extended from "end of 2020" to "end of 2025"
  • Incentives up to €40,000 get raised from €4,000 to €6,000.
  • The former incentives limit of €60,000 gets raised to €65,000.
  • Incentives between €40,000 and €65,000 get raised from €4,000 to €5,000.
No car length limit additions to exclude Tesla were announced. Note that since this is an extension of the existing incentives program, I believe any new substantial restrictions would have been announced. (But this is not 100% certain.)

So in principle it's possible that they have agreed on other changes as well, I believe it's very probable that they'd have announced any such changes.

The main anti Tesla move here is the €40,000 limit of the €6,000 incentives: just below the €44,000 of the base SR+.

Other than that all of these changes are positives, in particular the new €65,000 upper limit should now include a fully maxed out Model 3 Performance as well, which costs €64,720 currently. Most Model Y trims should be covered as well.

According to press reports the new incentives package will be finalized and announced in November, I.e. within the next few weeks.
 
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I really like the graph of latest Norwegian quarterly sales between days 67 and 87, and wish that straight line began earlier.

#TESLA BATTERY DAY
How do Tesla's purported talks with CATL regarding a role in global cell supply square with battery day and our conjecture up to now, ie. Tesla planning to build cells and aiming for 2TWh of output at an unnamed date [but ASAP per standard procedure]?

My gut feels a bit queasy. Brain requires a lot more input. If outside suppliers were to get a large role in Tesla's extremely ambitious plans, I should hope there'd be several of them, and from different countries too.
 

TESLARATI@Teslarati

· 3h

Elon Musk pitches Tesla’s ‘Cyberpunk’ Pickup Truck for potential military use: Here's why it actually makes sensehttps://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cyberpunk-pickup-truck-us-military-use-elon-musk/ …


Tesla's 'Cyberpunk' Pickup Truck pitched for potential military use
During the recently-held Air Force Space Pitch Day in San Francisco on Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk lightly mentioned the idea of using Tesla’s upcoming “Cyberpunk” pickup truck as a potential...

teslarati.com


Elon Musk

✔@elonmusk


This is based on an incorrect Electrek article. The Air Force asked me to speak at a startup conference called “Pitch Day” & I happened to mention Cybertruck. They don’t buy APCs. It’s the Air Force.