Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

I think the design of the pickup is going to keep the SP from reacting too positively in the short-term after reveal (in contrast to if they just revealed a Rivian-like truck).

I don't think the design will ultimately fail, but will take time to catch on. Hence there will be plenty of "Tesla isn't going to sell any of these! What were they thinking?" FUD-storms until it's ramped and selling.

PS. I hope the first part of this post ages poorly.

 

[StealthP3D]

The reason Apple and Google are interested in EVs is not for the hardware side but the software side. Autonomous (FSD) software and carOS have hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars market opportunity. This dwarfs the profit from just car sales or the pure hardware. And software is their expertise.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you are an AAPL shareholder.

It's the only way your insistence that Apple would be a good automaker and your refusal to drop this silly idea makes any sense to me.

 

[Todd Burch]

Market forces sure do try hard to keep TSLA from poking itself up on the green side...it's so charming.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

i hope the truck reveal is better organized than the last few Tesla media events. The Model Y reveal was sad because they had so much hype and attention, but the event itself was just a total mess in terms of organization, presentation, and pacing. The Semi / Roadster reveal was the last one that didn't feel sloppy and thrown together.

The Model Y reveal was more of anomaly instead of the norm(and it was very obvious why). As you said Semi/Roadster was great and the Model 3 was great.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

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By far the most biggest mover will be release date. Given Tesla overachieving when it came to Giga 3 and Model Y production timelines, I feel that if they announce volume production in Q1 2021, people will take notice.

When it comes to specs, Tesla has never disappointed so I feel specs that are impressive are practically guaranteed

Another big mover might be the number of reservations during the first week or so (if they take reservations, which I assume they do, and if they choose to announce the number).

 

[printf42]

i hope the truck reveal is better organized than the last few Tesla media events. The Model Y reveal was sad because they had so much hype and attention, but the event itself was just a total mess in terms of organization, presentation, and pacing. The Semi / Roadster reveal was the last one that didn't feel sloppy and thrown together.

This has been mentioned many times, model X, model 3, and model Y reveal were intentionally anti-selling the new product to avoid Osborne effect on current line up.
Pickup doesn’t have this concern, so you can expect the messages being loud and clear.

 

[HG Wells]

The truck should start production no more than 1 to 1 1/2 years from now.
Where will it be produced ?
I think we will see Tesla acquiring a new production location shortly.

Any closed car plants in US up for sale ?

 

[woodisgood]

The truck should start production no more than 1 to 1 1/2 years from now.
Where will it be produced ?
I think we will see Tesla acquiring a new production location shortly.

Any closed car plants in US up for sale ?

Since they were able to keep Y out of GF1, wouldn't GF1 be the only location for the most near-term production?

 

[Artful Dodger]

My understanding is that the car manufacturers have to chip in €3000 of that amount. On cars that cheap, that has to really hurt. I wonder if they will raise their prices?

They are required to sell the vehicles for the same price in Germany as they do in the rest of the EU. So either they raise prices everywhere (making EU residents subsidize Germans) or they take a margin hit in Germany (making German Automakers more competitive). Funny how this EV policy got through the various trade agreements. I'd like to here more on that. Paging @avoigt

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think the design of the pickup is going to keep the SP from reacting too positively in the short-term after reveal (in contrast to if they just revealed a Rivian-like truck).

I don't think the design will ultimately fail, but will take time to catch on. Hence there will be plenty of "Tesla isn't going to sell any of these! What were they thinking?" FUD-storms until it's ramped and selling.

PS. I hope the first part of this post ages poorly.

I think there's some validity to this concern but I do think the specs and ingenuity of the features/design/ in the cyber truck will far outweigh those put off by their initial reaction to the look of it.

I don't take Elon lightly when he says the cyber truck is the best product Tesla has ever made

 

[woodisgood]

I think there's some validity to this concern but I do think the specs and ingenuity of the features/design/ in the cyber truck will far outweigh those puts off by their initial reaction to the look of it.

I don't take Elon lightly when he says the cyber truck is the best product Tesla has ever made

I'm with you 100%...ultimately it will be an amazing product and will sell very well. I'm just not sure the market will [choose to] see that immediately.

 

[hobbes]

Model 3 from Giga 3 seems almost ready!! Let's open the floodgate of Gigafactory Shanghai

Nice pun by the way. well explained.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter
“开门见山” is a Chinese idiom, which literally means “open a door and see the mountain”, and figuratively means “straight to the topic, without any circumlocution”.

“开门见3” sounds similar to “开门见山”, which means “open the door (of Giga Shanghai) and see the Model 3” ️
​

Edit: add photo

Edit: It was reported by Cleantechnica that quality control is a major focus at Gigafactory Shanghai.
Now it seems shorts and detractors won't find any panel gaps to bitch about

View attachment 473645

Timely response to our discussion yesterday .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm with you 100%...ultimately it will be an amazing product and will sell very well. I'm just not sure the market will [choose to] see that immediately.

I'm definitely not expecting the pickup reveal to move the market. I think Giga 3 production start on Nov 11th could have a bigger impact if there's any details about how well production is ramping.

 

[Nocturnal]

i hope the truck reveal is better organized than the last few Tesla media events. The Model Y reveal was sad because they had so much hype and attention, but the event itself was just a total mess in terms of organization, presentation, and pacing. The Semi / Roadster reveal was the last one that didn't feel sloppy and thrown together.

It was very hard to see also. Terrible lighting.

yep. And Apple was "late" to the smart phone market. I was forced to use a sprint smart phone with WinCE (or whatever MS was calling it at the time) until the iPhone became available under our contract. I immediately applied, was approved by my manager, and it was rejected -- because the C levels had to have first access.

The iPhone completely overturned the apple cart, but it came into a "stable" market (I'd prefer stagnate). Yes, it broke new ground. It is also not the number one by volume. They just take all the profit...

I disagree about them being late to the smart phone market. They made the market. Of course this is all subjective but I don't consider blackberries and the like to be similar devices. Every feature that we now associate with "smartphone" comes directly from the IPhone.

But OT of course. Let's see this Tesla pickup! Are we going to see another SP run-up to the event only to watch it fall after like the Y event?​

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Timely response to our discussion yesterday .

Lol it was like Tesla heard the concerns of the TMC forum members

 

[printf42]

I think the design of the pickup is going to keep the SP from reacting too positively in the short-term after reveal (in contrast to if they just revealed a Rivian-like truck).

I don't think the design will ultimately fail, but will take time to catch on. Hence there will be plenty of "Tesla isn't going to sell any of these! What were they thinking?" FUD-storms until it's ramped and selling.

PS. I hope the first part of this post ages poorly.

I believe if the design is perceived to be too outlandish to be practical, it would open new segment in the market, don’t under estimate the market for “toy cars”.
Mainstream taste will catch up later when they see the practicality in real life.

Anecdotal data point, when my wife heard me talking about the pickup would look like directly out of a sci-fi movie, she started to contemplate getting that instead of the Model Y we have on order. FYI she was never into cars(let alone trucks) before we got her 3.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I believe if the design is perceived to be too outlandish to be practical, it would open new segment in the market, don’t under estimate the market for “toy cars”.
Mainstream taste will catch up later when they see the practicality in real life.

Anecdotal data point, when my wife heard me talking about the pickup would look like directly out of a sci-fi movie, she started to contemplate getting that instead of the Model Y we have on order. FYI she was never into cars(let alone trucks) before we got her 3.

Also, innovative features, if they are truly something new and awe inspiring, can generate interest and sales on their own. I think everyone would agree the Model X shapes(oval/egg) isn't exactly a show stopper......but those falcon wings doors have sold quite a few Model X's on their own.

 

[M3Rider]

Ok, why is nobody bringing up this major news piece:
Elon Musk on Twitter

How can they put more than 100kWh into S/X?
Is it possible with current 18650, 2170?
My understanding was no.

 

[jbcarioca]

Wasn't the Newton the first PDA?

I still have mine. It was a disaster, but in a tiny way useful in that it did replace my paper notes with equally illegible stuff.

 

[woodisgood]

I believe if the design is perceived to be too outlandish to be practical, it would open new segment in the market, don’t under estimate the market for “toy cars”.
Mainstream taste will catch up later when they see the practicality in real life.

Anecdotal data point, when my wife heard me talking about the pickup would look like directly out of a sci-fi movie, she started to contemplate getting that instead of the Model Y we have on order. FYI she was never into cars(let alone trucks) before we got her 3.

But in the meantime, I think we all know which headlines we're going to see:

A) "Tesla takes pickup trucks into the future with bold design, thrilling features."
OR
B) "Tesla pushes pickup design boundaries too far, alienates truck buyers with outlandish weirdmobile."

What I want the market to see:
C) "Tesla unveils brand-new advanced vehicle platform for pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans."