Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

This story hit Yahoo! Finance around the time of the decline. If this is the cause, what a joke - Einhorn does not seem like someone to whom the market should be listening, especially on Tesla.

Einhorn Still Bearish on Tesla, Prefers GM and Energy Stocks

Isn't Tesla an Energy stock also?

 

[Mokuzai]

Nailed it!

Mase Goslin on Twitter

 

[Nocturnal]

One thing to keep in mind is that Apple almost never is the first entrant in new markets. Music players existed before iPod. Smartphones existed before iPhone. It usually doesn't go for the early adopter market, but enters when a market is about 5-10 percent up the S-curve. Also, companies that thrive in early adopter markets very rarely are the ones that capture the largest market share as the S-curve steepens up and the market broadens. Tesla may be the exception to that -- but maybe not. If someone other than Tesla does gain as the market broadens, I wouldn't bet against a well-funded tech entrant that understands battery tech and software superbly.

Wasn't the Newton the first PDA?

 

[kengchang]

Cybertruck unveil on Nov 21 in LA near SpaceX rocket factory

and LA Autoshow starts on the 22nd....wonder if it will be on display

 

[HG Wells]

I would have thought the AI's would have pushed Tesla up more than a couple of points due to truck date being set.
Guess they don't like trucks.

 

[humbaba]

Here's the changes that were announced after a 4 hour meeting between Merkel and the VDA (German car industry organization):

• "Autogipfel: Kaufprämie für Elektroautos steigt" (Handelsblatt)
  
• "Höhere Kaufprämie für E-Autos kommt" (Tagesschau)
  
• Incentives up to €40,000 get raised from €4,000 to €6,000.
• The former incentives limit of €60,000 gets raised to €65,000.
• Incentives between €40,000 and €65,000 get raised from €4,000 to €5,000.

No length limit additions were announced. Note that since this is an extension of the existing incentives program, I believe any new restrictions would have been announced. (But this is not certain.)

So in principle it's possible that they have agreed on other changes as well, I believe it's very probable that they'd have announced any such changes.

The main anti Tesla move here is the €40,000 limit of the €6,000 incentives: just below the €44,000 of the base SR+.

Other than that all of these changes are positives, in particular the new €65,000 upper limit should now include a fully maxed out Model 3 Performance as well, which costs €64,720 currently. Most Model Y trims should be covered as well.

According to press reports the new incentives package will be finalized and announced in November, I.e. within the next few weeks.

At this point I don't mind their protectionism. As a Tesla investor it is annoying, but if it helps the legacy makers produce and sell more EVs I'm okay with that.

In any case I think there are signs of cracks starting form in the German market resistance to Tesla. Porsche has been legitimizing Tesla through its marketing approach and Tesla has been pushing Nürnberg as "the track to beat" which will surely appeal to German pride. (I'm not meaning to suggest an opening of flood gates -- penetrating a market with such a strong domestic identity is difficult -- but I do believe there will be a slow increase in sales in Germany.)

 

[printf42]

I expect no coverage of Tesla pickup reveal event date, and piles of news on electric pickup from big three in the coming weeks.

 

[humbaba]

Wasn't the Newton the first PDA?

I think that underscores the points: "almost never" -- after all, the Newton did not do well and was cancelled, and that often early entrants do not dominate (Palm took the crown until they were deep sixed in their own turn).

 

[jerry33]

At this point I don't mind their protectionism. As a Tesla investor it is annoying, but if it helps the legacy makers produce and sell more EVs I'm okay with that.

Problem is that protectionism is more likely to encourage the status-quo. The more they have to compete, the more likely change will happen.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Cybertruck unveil on Nov 21 in LA near SpaceX rocket factory

I think the main potential upsides of this reveal are:

• Revealing specs that blow away all ICE competition.
• Delivering on a base price open for orders below $50k. (I think the market is still assuming Cybertruck will be a premium S/X priced product).
• Announcing production much earlier than anticipated. (Best case pilot line early 2021, >2k per week by mid 2021?)
• Revealing a "one more thing" large and rugged SUV built on the Cybertruck platform.

 

[humbaba]

Problem is that protectionism is more likely to encourage the status-quo. The more they have to compete, the more likely change will happen.

I'm not in favor of status quo, but I understood this to be an EV incentive. Even if it is slanted to benefit their domestic industry as long as it is increasing EV adoption I'm in favor of it. Yes, I would prefer it to not be protectionist, but if they are increasing the rate of more than just minimal compliance cars that is a good thing (IMO).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

0

I think the main potential upsides of this reveal are:

• Revealing specs that blow away all ICE competition.
• Delivering on a base price open for orders below $50k. (I think the market is still assuming Cybertruck will be a premium S/X priced product).
• Announcing production much earlier than anticipated. (Best case pilot line early 2021, >2k per week by mid 2021?)
• Revealing a "one more thing" large and rugged SUV built on the Cybertruck platform.

By far the most biggest mover will be release date. Given Tesla overachieving when it came to Giga 3 and Model Y production timelines, I feel that if they announce volume production in Q1 2021, people will take notice.

When it comes to specs, Tesla has never disappointed so I feel specs that are impressive are practically guaranteed

 

[jerry33]

I'm not in favor of status quo, but I understood this to be an EV incentive. Even if it is slanted to benefit their domestic industry as long as it is increasing EV adoption I'm in favor of it. Yes, I would prefer it to not be protectionist, but if they are increasing the rate of more than just minimal compliance cars that is a good thing (IMO).

Agreed, but it's more likely to create compliance cars because there is no incentive to make cars that are better than their existing models.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think that underscores the points: "almost never" -- after all, the Newton did not do well and was cancelled, and that often early entrants do not dominate (Palm took the crown until they were deep sixed in their own turn).

You could make the argument that the PDA and Smartphone aren't really different devices. What's a smartphone but a PDA with a cell connection?

 

[jerry33]

You could make the argument that the PDA and Smartphone aren't really different devices. What's a smartphone but a PDA with a cell connection?

Yeah, I was disappointed when the iPad didn't include the ability to make calls like a phone. Carrying around one device is preferable to carrying around two.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think the main potential upsides of this reveal are:

• Revealing specs that blow away all ICE competition.
• Delivering on a base price open for orders below $50k. (I think the market is still assuming Cybertruck will be a premium S/X priced product).
• Announcing production much earlier than anticipated. (Best case pilot line early 2021, >2k per week by mid 2021?)
• Revealing a "one more thing" large and rugged SUV built on the Cybertruck platform.

Some other crazy predictions for the Pickup Truck reveal:

• The CyberTruck will pull a Falcon 9 first stage.
• The CyberTruck will debut the SpaceX Option Package and will enter (or exit) flying - or might demo hovering.
• My render based on the teaser image:
  Spoiler: Tesla Pickup Truck speculation

  
• Theres still a chance for an amphibious version, like good APCs.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why software companies (including Tesla) will dominate auto going forward; and why Google, Apple, Amazon, Tencent, etc. (and not legacy OEMs) are likely to be Tesla's biggest competitors:

Elon Musk on Twitter
Tesla is updating its internal OS, will focus on securing customer accounts next, says Musk - Electrek

“Connected, autonomous cars require great software. Advanced factories also require great software. The car industry is not very good at software.”

Would you have included that quote on the end if it had added: "...and the software industry is not very good at auto manufacturing (Tesla being the only exception)."?

 

[mongo]

This is based on an incorrect Electrek article. The Air Force asked me to speak at a startup conference called “Pitch Day” & I happened to mention Cybertruck. They don’t buy APCs. It’s the Air Force.

In the weird trivia department, the Air Force did buy at least one Tesla.
The Air Force Uses Teslas to Chase the U-2 Spy Plane

 

[Pezpunk]

i hope the truck reveal is better organized than the last few Tesla media events. The Model Y reveal was sad because they had so much hype and attention, but the event itself was just a total mess in terms of organization, presentation, and pacing. The Semi / Roadster reveal was the last one that didn't feel sloppy and thrown together.

 

[humbaba]

You could make the argument that the PDA and Smartphone aren't really different devices. What's a smartphone but a PDA with a cell connection?

yep. And Apple was "late" to the smart phone market. I was forced to use a sprint smart phone with WinCE (or whatever MS was calling it at the time) until the iPhone became available under our contract. I immediately applied, was approved by my manager, and it was rejected -- because the C levels had to have first access.

The iPhone completely overturned the apple cart, but it came into a "stable" market (I'd prefer stagnate). Yes, it broke new ground. It is also not the number one by volume. They just take all the profit...