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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,510
25,667
VA
ANY involvement between Apple and Tesla would cause a violent move to $700s and would wipe out the $TSLAQ meme for good. It could be Apple purchasing a stake, software involvement, anything.

Apple has better chance to help incumbents with building software stack.
Apple can't help Tesla for h/w,s/w, auto, battery, solar, power wall ...
So it's only monies - and they didn't make a move in the low 180's ... so I think that time has passed as well.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,895
93,696
USA
Well I let the China factory thing get to my head and I sold my calls which are of course up significantly today. Damn you Mercury Retrograde!

Strong share position still intact.

Indeed, that appears to have been a problem. ;)

upload_2019-11-6_15-58-59.png
 

SpaceCash

Intergalactic Planetary, Planetary Intergalactic
Jul 5, 2017
1,672
12,446
Earth
OK it's Retrograde for all 12 then :) -- but depends on whether you are Long/Short TSLA Moon though :)
I'm long AF todamoon (the couple calls I unloaded were medium term though, Jun 2020), but I was getting extremely frazzled over perceived mixed messages about Chinese factory developments/greenlighting.
I was probably being a little paranoid
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,895
93,696
USA
I'm long AF todamoon (the couple calls I unloaded were medium term though, Jun 2020), but I was getting extremely frazzled over perceived mixed messages about Chinese factory developments/greenlighting.
I was probably being a little paranoid

The increased risks involved in options trading can raise the level to which emotions control decisions. Nevertheless, the market makers and hedge funds are always happy to serve you. Holding the underlying stocks for the long run makes sleeping easier, and is more likely to lead to wealth accumulation. :cool:
 

NakedLong

Member
Oct 10, 2018
198
2,115
Paris
What do you think of the chances for Intel/MobilEye/NIO ?

Intel -
What do you think of the chances for Intel/MobilEye/NIO ?

Advantages for MobliEye:
They use vision first
They have been making progress over last decade
They have EV partners who will probably scale up their fleet within 5 years
They have deep funding via Intel
Can quickly develop custom chip via Intel collab

Disadvantages:
They are 3 separate companies - leading to integration problems and delays
They are slower compared to Tesla (why Tesla left), but obviously much faster than Auto OEMs
NIO only have 15K cars atm - will take a lot of time and money to scale that up. Same applies for other auto OEMs they want to supply and collect data for.

Overall I put them in roughly the same boat as Waymo - I think they will get there - just 2-3 years after Tesla. The main aspect holding them back is fleet size for data collection, and politics of coordinating between companies. There is only a small window of a few years from when Tesla reaches FSD during which competitors can duplicate the technology before Tesla becomes a monopoly. What do you think about MobilEye?
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,304
19,327
London
This big, high volume price move which started at 2:30pm is due to the S&P debt outlook upgrade of Tesla's bonds from "negative" to "positive":


This kills a major pillar of the bear thesis and should boost the bonds as well, plus other ripple effects. This might bring a number of new institutional investors on board as well.

Bonds are still rated "B-" - the change in outlook is a precursor to a potential future S&P upgrade.

This upgrade and news is not easily nullified.

TSLA up 2.7% right now, against macro headwinds: Nasdaq -0.3%.

Not advice.
Wait until they hit BBB or "investment grade". Many funds limit their investments to this rating or above. It's like a mini S&P500 inclusion.
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,304
19,327
London
Btw., I was curious about how far away Tesla is from a Moody's upgrade. Their latest update was on August 20, when they upgraded Tesla from SGL-4 to SGL-3, outlook "stable":

Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets

"Finally, Tesla's liquidity position is now adequate, reflected by the SGL-3. Its $5 billion cash position will afford an important cushion to meet maturing debt obligations through 2021 and to contend with the operational challenges it will face during the coming year.

These challenges include: 1) improving the gross margin of its automotive operations while containing the losses in its solar and auto service businesses; 2) effectively executing the rapid expansion into Europe, where demand seems sound; 3) contending with ongoing US-China trade tensions as the company builds out the Shanghai production facility and launches the Chinese-market Model 3; and, 4) contending with the coming launch of more competitive battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from global automotive competitors."​

I believe all 4 conditions have been met meanwhile, and a couple of days ago Tesla paid back $560m in Solar City bonds in cash, deleveraging their balance sheet.

So in a fair world, where cash incineration machine Uber is rated by Moody's at B2, while profitable, 1 billion dollars per quarter cash generation machine Tesla is rated at a lower B3, it would be high time for Moody's to upgrade Tesla's bonds to B2 or higher, outlook "positive". ;)
As an FYI, few people care about the liquidity rating (SGL). They care about the long term credit rating. (the ABC's).
 

traxila

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,874
11,162
NYC
I'm long AF todamoon (the couple calls I unloaded were medium term though, Jun 2020), but I was getting extremely frazzled over perceived mixed messages about Chinese factory developments/greenlighting.
I was probably being a little paranoid

The point of the trading account (I assume your calls are in a short to medium term trading account) is to to take profits. If those trades were profitable you did absolutely nothing wrong. Look for a re entry point...so you can turn profits again.

And yeah, I agree with your sentiment that FUD is inevitable with Chinese situation if it is perceived to drag out. And, as usual, the FUD will work as this stock is full of momo traders.
 
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