Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

I am selling all my shares!
I Received another OTA update last night...this company thinks they can continually "change" MY car!
What's next free HP increases...better AP?

The Nerve!/S

 

[dww12]

Sola

Oh, you can 'smell the fear' this morning. Shortzies aren't just panicking over the 85% run up in the last 5 months, they're panicking this morning about the 20% run up coming over the next 3 weeks. Here's some highlights for Nov 2019:

• Golden Cross - CHECK
• Nürburgring 7:13 - CHECK
  
• Plaid Big Bty - CHECK
  
• S&P Global Upgrade - CHECK
  
• China Tariffs - CHECK
• GF3 Model 3 - CHECK
• Cybertruck - CHECK

SP? to the MOON. But will it stop there? With escape velocity, why would it stop? ATH.

Cheers!

Solar Roof Tile order available - check
Solar Roof tile first install - this is the one I am waiting for.

 

[Fact Checking]

I’ve said before and I say again. If a bunch of you go buy “lottery ticket” calls around the truck unveil, the stock may go up prior to the unveil, but you will be setting a bunch of market makers against the stock post unveil. Obviously the stock may go down regardless “buy the rumor, sell the news”, but if there are a bunch of near or out of the money calls, they will be extra motivated to hold / push it down.

Why give market makers your hard earned money?

It’s highly unlikely that such a highly publicized event will result in a “surprise” that catches market makers off guard, unlike the Q3 results which caught everyone off guard. That was the time to buy lotto tickets.

So if an options market maker delta hedges any contracts written, they'd be mostly isolated from the rising stock price, right?

Delta hedging appears to be common practice:

Exactly how do option market-making desks manage their hedges of delta and other Greeks? Is it different for vanilla options vs. warrants/CFDs or any leveraged product? - Quora​

Is there any evidence that suggests that market makers are holding unhedged, naked contracts and are proprietary trading against buyers of those contracts, regardless of the fundamentals of the company whose stock they are making the market for?

 

[EVMeister]

I am selling all my shares!
I Received another OTA update last night...this company thinks they can continually "change" MY car!
What's next free HP increases...better AP?

The Nerve!/S

I received an OTA update for my I-PACE yesterday. I have no idea what it did, there were no release notes. It was for the in-car entertainment sytem and would've been limited to something very basic. Perhaps fixed some typo on some menu somewhere.

 

[Unpilot]

I received an OTA update for my I-PACE yesterday. I have no idea what it did, there were no release notes. It was for the in-car entertainment sytem and would've been limited to something very basic. Perhaps fixed some typo on some menu somewhere.

I do wish the release notes were more informative with Tesla updates.

 

[KarenRei]

The media's about-face on Tesla coverage is IMHO really shocking to me. Just saw this on my feed.

Tesla’s first-mover advantage over rival car makers should only get bigger

I'm also noticing an interesting trend: as Tesla penetration grows in a market, the greater the odds that a particular journalist, or someone they know, has a Tesla. Which creates a major change in how they cover Tesla, having experienced it personally.

 

[Boomer19]

All I can say is that I wish I'd been more aggressive with my releveraging strategy. I got burned in Q1 / early Q2 by going too aggressive with releveraging and ran out of steam, so I've tried not to make the same mistake again. That said, I may be pushing "holding off" too far given the circumstances (was waiting for a 25-point drop from my deleveraging point before starting, which would have been $307-308... just missed it ).

nope, not such an easily navigable path the last ~4 years

i was planning on reviewing some of my trading in the “trading” thread but it’s been so busy i haven’t been able to gather it together

 

[Antares Nebula]

Okay folks, given the heated Apple discussion yesterday, I made a TMC poll, if anybody is interested:

Apple as a worthy competitor or benevolent acquirer?

Made a poll to gauge the opinion of the TMC community in light of the on and off Apple discussions.

Want to emphasize that the choice of competitor above is qualified by being "worthy" and not simply a second rate competitor. Not saying that either Apple or Tesla will win, but that Apple will at least give Tesla a run for its money, as opposed to the compliance EVs by legacy OEMs. And like Tesla, Apple would compete effectively on all three fronts: EV powertrain, autonomy, and carOS. They would at least design the cars and maybe even manufacture them if not license to a 3rd party manufacturer. We don't need to get into further details, as the term "worthy competitor" is sufficient to get the point across.

I made the poll to be viewed only after voting (to be more honest IMO). But if you folks feel results should be viewed before voting, let me know below. If enough people feel this way, I will change it (if I am still able to).

You can change your mind after you vote. Your individual votes are not displayed publicly.

If you have any other thoughts or feedback, please comment below. Thanks!

 

[ReflexFunds]

So if an options market maker delta hedges any contracts written, they'd be mostly isolated from the rising stock price, right?

Delta hedging appears to be common practice:

Exactly how do option market-making desks manage their hedges of delta and other Greeks? Is it different for vanilla options vs. warrants/CFDs or any leveraged product? - Quora​

Is there any evidence that suggests that market makers are holding unhedged, naked contracts and are proprietary trading against buyers of those contracts, regardless of the fundamentals of the company whose stock they are making the market for?

I think with Tesla most market-makers delta hedge sold call options by holding underlying stock. However I think some close the hedge early so there is a period where they are unhedged - they dump the shares during the day on a Friday before the option expiry. If enough people do this every week they can push the stock price down enough to ensure most of the calls they have sold are out of the money. They can do the same thing if they have sold puts together with shorting stock - close the stock short early and try to get their put options out of the money. I think this is the driver of trend towards maximum pain on option expiry.

I also think there are many hedge funds (including morons like Spiegel) that are playing options unhedged.

 

[Unpilot]

The media's about-face on Tesla coverage is IMHO really shocking to me. Just saw this on my feed.

Tesla’s first-mover advantage over rival car makers should only get bigger

I'm also noticing an interesting trend: as Tesla penetration grows in a market, the greater the odds that a particular journalist, or someone they know, has a Tesla. Which creates a major change in how they cover Tesla, having experienced it personally.

Thanks for the link.
Reading that it feels like when I taught my son how to ride a bike. It's like YES it is simple once you open your eyes and mind and accept that there is a better way.

 

[Don TLR]

Kimbal Musk on twitter today:

"I am most excited for the Cybertruck than any Tesla product since the Model S. It’s going to blow your mind"

Kimbal Musk on Twitter

This made my morning

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh, you can 'smell the fear' this morning. Shortzies aren't just panicking over the 85% run up in the last 5 months, they're panicking this morning about the 20% run up coming over the next 3 weeks. Here's some highlights for Nov 2019:

• Golden Cross - CHECK
• Nürburgring 7:13 - CHECK
  
• Plaid Big Bty - CHECK
  
• S&P Global Upgrade - CHECK
  
• China Tariffs - CHECK
• GF3 Model 3 - CHECK
• Cybertruck - CHECK

SP? to the MOON. But will it stop there? With escape velocity, why would it stop? ATH.

Cheers!

For once I’m in agreement about SP upward movement.

You forgot GF4 announcement (and I’ve said before I believe they’ll get it up and running way faster than people think - we’ve witnessed Elon do incredible deals with GF1 & 3, with Panasonic in the early days - I see that continuing), and Model 3 sold out for year as well.

Then there’s whatever they are cooking up for battery day and their push to FSD complete features this year/early next for early access peeps.

With the Pickup and FCF/profitability going forward and energy and solar getting attention again - I get this sense that Tesla has mashed the pedal to the floor.

I’m pricking my ears because I think things are about to get real interesting.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This is likely true. Certainly Buffett, a major Apple stakeholder, would raise an eyebrow. He was actually asked about this in a CNBC interview this year, and he said, while it's not his decision, he considers it a bad idea, primarily because autos are a capital intensive business. Both Cook and Buffett appear too conservative to take such a risk. So, as much as there is plenty of reason to suspect that Apple may wish to buy Tesla, there is also plenty of reason to suspect it may not.

I pray Apple doesn't buy Tesla. But why should Apple management worry about entering a capital intensive business when they are sitting on 200+ billion in cash and only a few ideas on what to do with it all?

 

[Krugerrand]

Okay folks, given the heated Apple discussion yesterday, I made a TMC poll, if anybody is interested:

Apple as a worthy competitor or benevolent acquirer?

Where’s the option for none of the above?

 

[ZeApelido]

The media's about-face on Tesla coverage is IMHO really shocking to me. Just saw this on my feed.

Tesla’s first-mover advantage over rival car makers should only get bigger

I'm also noticing an interesting trend: as Tesla penetration grows in a market, the greater the odds that a particular journalist, or someone they know, has a Tesla. Which creates a major change in how they cover Tesla, having experienced it personally.

Unless Dana Hull and Lora Koldony live in a basement I don't know how they have missed all of the Teslas in the Bay Area the last few years.

 

[HG Wells]

Do I repeat my brilliant trading strategy of the last few days?
Risk another .014...percent?

Aah the life of the high roller!

AH, think BIG !
Maybe a tenth of one percent ?

You only live life once !!!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Where’s the option for none of the above?

Yes, I agree. As I've previously stated I would prefer neither. But our desires and reality don't always match. If Apple is intent on entering the market (which it seems to be, though we don't know for sure), which outcome would you, as a Tesla investor, prefer?

 

[Unpilot]

They just can't help themselves...click bait bastages.

The article is not that bad...but the comment section..wow.

Tesla’s China Factory Will Make or Break Elon Musk’s Vision

 

[Antares Nebula]

I pray Apple doesn't buy Tesla. But why should Apple management worry about entering a capital intensive business when they are sitting on 200+ billion in cash and only a few ideas on what to do with it all?

That's the question. They certainly have enough money. On the other hand, Apple likes its money and doesn't like to waste it on low margin businesses, which traditional auto manufacturing is. They need to determine whether the profits from the software side (FSD, carOS) are worth it.

 

[Krugerrand]

I read that, but your poll is incomplete if people think theirs more than two options/choices like me.