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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA is now +85% higher than it was in the summer at the $179-ish low. That's an incredible run-up over just 5 months from such a high market cap company and I'm wondering how many of the shorts that shorted below $200 are still short today.
Oh, you can 'smell the fear' this morning. Shortzies aren't just panicking over the 85% run up in the last 5 months, they're panicking this morning about the 20% run up coming over the next 3 weeks. Here's some highlights for Nov 2019:
  • Golden Cross - CHECK
  • Nürburgring 7:13 - CHECK
  • Plaid Big Bty - CHECK
  • S&P Global Upgrade - CHECK
  • China Tariffs - CHECK
  • GF3 Model 3 - CHECK
  • Cybertruck - CHECK
SP? to the MOON. But will it stop there? With escape velocity, why would it stop? ATH. ;)

Cheers!
 
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If I was a short I’d be very frightened by what happened yesterday afternoon. Not only have the shorts been unable to push a retrace below 310, but yesterday afternoon they lost the battle of 320 in a big way.

There’s not much now standing in the way of an ATH.

If you’re a short, do you really want to hold your position into the weekend knowing there might be a Tesla Shanghai announcement before Monday’s open?

Not advice. Yes, we’ve been disappointed soooo many times before. Caution is always warranted. But let’s not be overly cautious either. We all have PTSD from dips this year and last, but the fundamentals are way more bullish now.
 
This guy is one of the most vocal TSLA shorts on Twitter. Found this gem that he posted back in the day

303E079E-449E-493F-A482-AB1C88677752.jpeg
 
That's not what the TSLA short sale data has been telling us. If the data is accurate, TSLA short-sellers are more likely to short at a low price and cover at a high price, statistically speaking.

If that sounds odd to you it's easily explained. They have *sugar* for brains. ;)

It's understandable that this happens. They're usually as bearish as we are bullish; stock high, stock low, it's still going to zero, right? They want to be fully invested in this possibility. The number of shares you can short is limited by how much cash you have to back them. As the stock price drops, the amount of cash needed to cover your existing shares drops. Since shorts want to be "all in", it's very tempting to take advantage of the now "freed-up" cash to short more.

Of course, when the stock goes back up, this tends to lead to margin calls. Which forces covering. You also have the fear of margin calls on top of that, which makes people want to cover and wait for what they perceive to be the top before getting back in - which amplifies the squeeze.

The real question this time is, did the "false top" we had recently convince a bunch of said shorts to jump back in? ;)
 
All I can say is that I wish I'd been more aggressive with my releveraging strategy. I got burned in Q1 / early Q2 by going too aggressive with releveraging and ran out of steam, so I've tried not to make the same mistake again. That said, I may be pushing "holding off" too far given the circumstances (was waiting for a 25-point drop from my deleveraging point before starting, which would have been $307-308... just missed it :( ).
 
OT:

100 years ago today, on November 6, 1919, Arthur Eddington gave a presentation about a solar eclipse that confirmed Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity, immediately turning Einstein into a:
  1. genius
  2. uber-nerd
  3. legend
  4. all of the above
Thought you should know. ;)

Only 4 years after theory of general relativity was published. Great service! I hope Al left Eddy a nice tip!
 
I’ve said before and I say again. If a bunch of you go buy “lottery ticket” calls around the truck unveil, the stock may go up prior to the unveil, but you will be setting a bunch of market makers against the stock post unveil. Obviously the stock may go down regardless “buy the rumor, sell the news”, but if there are a bunch of near or out of the money calls, they will be extra motivated to hold / push it down.

Why give market makers your hard earned money?

It’s highly unlikely that such a highly publicized event will result in a “surprise” that catches market makers off guard, unlike the Q3 results which caught everyone off guard. That was the time to buy lotto tickets.
 
Oh, you can 'smell the fear' this morning. Shortzies aren't just panicking over the 85% run up in the last 5 months, they're panicking this morning about the 20% run up coming over the next 3 weeks. Here's some highlights for Nov 2019:
  • Golden Cross - CHECK
  • Nürburgring 7:13 - CHECK
  • Plaid Big Bty - CHECK
  • S&P Global Upgrade - CHECK
  • China Tariffs - CHECK
  • GF3 Model 3 - CHECK
  • Cybertruck - CHECK
SP? to the MOON. But will it stop there? With escape velocity, why would it stop? ATH. ;)

Cheers!
Model Y ahead of schedule
Roadster starting to get close as they are now offering trade ins
Semi may go to customer in December