Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Off Shore]

One word of caution: pre-market trading volume is only 11k TSLA shares so far - so this is light trading that might be reversed during the regular trading session.

Having said that, TSLA is now +85% higher than it was in the summer at the $179-ish low. That's an incredible run-up over just 5 months from such a high market cap company, and I'm wondering how many of the shorts that shorted below $200 are still short today, and at what price levels they are going to start hurting. Very few shorts who shorted this year are still in profitable positions.

I'm also wondering to what extent NASDAQ options market makers are trying to hit max-pain levels and attempt to walk back the TSLA price, or are most of them flowing with the delta and buying the underlying stock meanwhile?

Ihor is on vacation (and his tracking wasn't very accurate for Tesla lately) - and the NASDAQ October 31 TSLA short interest report will be released on November 11: next Monday.

Until then we'll probably be in the dark about how TSLA short interest evolved after the Q3 earnings report.

For the 417th time, the real (i.e. non-retail) shorts aren't seeking profits, but rather are spending money to keep the price of TSLA down.

 

[EVNow]

I think with Tesla most market-makers delta hedge sold call options by holding underlying stock. However I think some close the hedge early so there is a period where they are unhedged - they dump the shares during the day on a Friday before the option expiry. If enough people do this every week they can push the stock price down enough to ensure most of the calls they have sold are out of the money. They can do the same thing if they have sold puts together with shorting stock - close the stock short early and try to get their put options out of the money. I think this is the driver of trend towards maximum pain on option expiry.

When Delta hedging is done correctly, the MM will buy or sell shares based on the "Delta" of the options they have sold. Since both the Delta and options they have sold continuously change - I'm sure the hedging itself is done automatically by programs. I don't know if there are 3rd party programs available or they are all inhouse.

Either way MMs efficiency is dictated by how well the program performs.

 

[woodisgood]

Someone one Twitter : The car beeps all the time when going through a drive-through restaurant.

Musk : Looking into it (translation : That's an interesting idea.)

TMC :


After a month :

Media : Tesla fails to deliver promised drive-thr' mode.

Exactly....why is this already a BI article on my Apple stock app....

 

[loco]

OMG, new heights. Was sitting on a loss for nearly a year. I find this new situation even more challenging. Hold, hold, there's no recession coming. Car will drive self.

 

[Remus]

For the 417th time, the real (i.e. non-retail) shorts aren't seeking profits, but rather are spending money to keep the price of TSLA down.

Then they didn't need to cover but they did, which transferred money permanent to our account.

I am not complaining

 

[mickificki]

Apologies if this is a re-post, but a nice article.

Tesla’s first-mover advantage over rival car makers should only get bigger

 

[EVNow]

For the 417th time, the real (i.e. non-retail) shorts aren't seeking profits, but rather are spending money to keep the price of TSLA down.

The hedge funds and institutional investors are definitely looking for profit. But not short term profits. They may be driven by ideology and group think - which we sometime confuse for a vast conspiracy.

 

[humbaba]

I'm finding tracking the stock price to be more difficult today than usual. Market Watch is frequently wrong in different ways ranging from showing the wrong graph to incomplete data to wrong data. When I last checked it was showing the high-water mark for today at ~$3.30 when they had previously shown prices at ~$3.32. No consistency.

I don't normally look at the pre-trade, but trying to get an idea of what is going on I took a look at NASDAQ trades and they are showing 100, 200 trades, then 3200 shares in a trade. So either there are huge spikes (I'd guess attempts to cap the rise) are there's issues with reporting data this morning?

After writing the above I checked Market Watch and it looks like it is back to displaying real data, but its done that before and reverted to garbage. Is this a local browser artifact or is anyone else seeing this?

edit: go back and Market Watch is showing $3.32 while NASDAQ is ticking along at ~$3.30 so definitely still seeing weirdness.

 

[dww12]

Does this feel like the beginning of the real squeeze, or just me?

 

[StealthP3D]

For the 417th time, the real (i.e. non-retail) shorts aren't seeking profits, but rather are spending money to keep the price of TSLA down.

Pretty sure that was the 418th time.

 

[MrQc]

I'm finding tracking the stock price to be more difficult today than usual. Market Watch is frequently wrong in different ways ranging from showing the wrong graph to incomplete data to wrong data. When I last checked it was showing the high-water mark for today at ~$3.30 when they had previously shown prices at ~$3.32. No consistency.

I don't normally look at the pre-trade, but trying to get an idea of what is going on I took a look at NASDAQ trades and they are showing 100, 200 trades, then 3200 shares in a trade. So either there are huge spikes (I'd guess attempts to cap the rise) are there's issues with reporting data this morning?

After writing the above I checked Market Watch and it looks like it is back to displaying real data, but its done that before and reverted to garbage. Is this a local browser artifact or is anyone else seeing this?

edit: go back and Market Watch is showing $3.32 while NASDAQ is ticking along at ~$3.30 so definitely still seeing weirdness.

Same here, on my phone and in a browser on the PC...

 

[LST]

Does this feel like the beginning of the real squeeze, or just me?

just you...

there will be no squeeze (as in VW / Porsche ) just endless pain and agony, shortside, that is

 

[Tim S]

BI article I refuse to link to. Has to do with the car’s sensors beeping incessantly while going thru fast food drive-thrus.

I did not read the article, but FYI I have gone through many fast food drive thrus without noticing any beeping from my Model 3. It is not an issue.

 

[ggr]

The 10amEST MMD didn't work today.

 

[humbaba]

The 10amEST MMD didn't work today.

Not for lack of trying if I'm reading the trades correctly. Which I'm probably not, I don't do that sort of thing. But the price reporting seems very hitchy.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm officially lost. I actually had dreams last night about the cybertruck reveal.

 

[SunCatcher]

OMG, new heights. Was sitting on a loss for nearly a year. I find this new situation even more challenging. Hold, hold, there's no recession coming. Car will drive self.

Happy Days are Here Again!
Oh sorry; not for you, poor little Shorts. Dear dear...
"Run, you fools!"

 

[HG Wells]

I'm finding tracking the stock price to be more difficult today than usual. Market Watch is frequently wrong in different ways ranging from showing the wrong graph to incomplete data to wrong data. When I last checked it was showing the high-water mark for today at ~$3.30 when they had previously shown prices at ~$3.32. No consistency.

I don't normally look at the pre-trade, but trying to get an idea of what is going on I took a look at NASDAQ trades and they are showing 100, 200 trades, then 3200 shares in a trade. So either there are huge spikes (I'd guess attempts to cap the rise) are there's issues with reporting data this morning?

After writing the above I checked Market Watch and it looks like it is back to displaying real data, but its done that before and reverted to garbage. Is this a local browser artifact or is anyone else seeing this?

edit: go back and Market Watch is showing $3.32 while NASDAQ is ticking along at ~$3.30 so definitely still seeing weirdness.

Boss Short to ALL Shorts.

Its ALL fake.
Its not going up.
Fake Fake Fake.
Just like the news media.

Sincerely
Boss Short

 

[hobbes]

The 10amEST MMD didn't work today.

Inverted MMD today. IIRC that´s a bullish sign in technical analysis .

 

[JustMe]

Looks like the market is reacting to my bullish post on Tesla’s international deliveries from last night